The ability to extrapolate small-group behavior into predicting large-group behavior is fraught with peril. Though theoretically possible, there are too many unknowable, or unquantifiable, factors to be precise. Folks a lot smarter than I have shown that, statistically, The Roman Empire should have "fallen" 200 years before it did, and that the Soviet Empire should have lasted well into the 22nd century. Yet Rome and the USSR fell when they did.

IMO emotion drives as much of history as enlightened self (group)-interest. And we don't have a good handle on being able to measure emotional motivation.

All that said: good luck Cronos. on your project.