What if Constantinople had never fallen to the Turks?

[GeneralHankerchief]

Interesting stuff, sorry I had missed this until the resurrect.

For the most part, as has been addressed above in this thread, the Byzantine Empire was laughably weak at this point in history and a safe Constantinople post-1453 would not have reversed their centuries-long decay. However, they did have one chance at a reprieve: Mehmet II. The Sultan's grip on the throne was not really solidified at this point. First of all, keep in mind that Mehmet was still only 21 at the time and had only ruled for a little over two years. Second of all, his father, Murad II, had actually abdicated in favor of Mehmet back in 1444 and had to un-abdicate shortly afterwards because his son was not up to handling the running of the empire. Third of all, there was serious dissent in the Ottoman camp about whether or not to proceed with the attack on Constantinople right up until the final assault. Fourth of all, the Byzantines had access to at least one Ottoman pretender to the throne.

In a hypothetical repulse of the Ottoman assault in the early hours of May 29th, 1453, it could be very possible that the "peace party" in the Ottoman camp wins out. Mehmet and his army, now with a big chunk torn out of it, has to return to Edirne. The common soldiers go back to their homes, some in far-off parts of the empire. The questions about Mehmet's capabilities as a ruler pop up once again. After all, in the previous two sieges of Constantinople, 1394 and 1422, the Ottomans pulled back both times because of outside factors. However, in 1453, if they had to pull back because they simply failed to take the city, with the odds so greatly stacked in their favor, with a controversial Sultan... things would not go so well. Add in Constantine - who survived the battle - unleashing his pretender (Osman, if I remember the name correctly), and chances are good that the Ottomans have to leave Constantinople alone to clean up their own affairs for a while.

I do not consider the above a best-case scenario for the Byzantines. I consider it a plausible outcome. The next paragraph, however, is probably wishful thinking on Byzantium's part.

What does this mean for Constantinople? It buys them time and breathing room. Everyone had known for decades that the city's best chance of survival was aid from the West. The Greeks had submitted and agreed to reunification at the Council of Florence precisely because of this. Officially, it was well on its way to happening. Unofficially, it had been stalled for quite some time because many of the Orthodox clergy and their congregations would not accept it. The Hagia Sophia actually was unused for the last year or so of Byzantine Constantinople. However, it finally saw a service again on the night of May 28th, in a final vigil before the Ottoman assault. It is written that everyone present in the city - no matter whether they were Catholic or Orthodox, Greek or Genoan or Venetian - put aside their differences and all prayed together in the face of such adversity. Constantinople was always a city that was in touch with religion and prophecy. It's possible that the people of the city could have remembered the good feeling generated by that final vigil in the wake of their deliverance and would have finally accepted reunification. The time bought by the Ottoman chaos could have been used to securing greater bond with the West, and by the time the Ottomans got their house in order, they could now face an enemy that, while weak, now had real friends in the West.

This is the best-case scenario for Constantinople. The more likely one is variations on the theme that had been established for the past century or so: The Ottomans have their own issues from time to time, but the Byzantines never get stronger. The Greeks had played the game of thrones with Ottoman pretenders in the past, and it had never really served much of a purpose outside of pissing the eventual Sultan off. Even if the current Byzantine-sponsored pretender did manage to win the throne, he would not rule forever. The lure of Constantinople was too great. It had been the Red Apple for Islam for nearly a thousand years by that point. While Constantinople still stood, it had taken severe damage in the assault and most of Byzantium's efforts would be in rebuilding it and preparing it for the next inevitable attack. The city's defenders in that assault numbered about 7,000. Factor in casualties and the Byzantines still had nearly zero offensive capability, even when you count the men in Morea. There would be no reconquista of the Balkan Peninsula. The notoriously fickle Orthodox clergy would still refuse to accept reunification, leaving Constantinople once again isolated. And eventually, the Ottomans would be back. Whether they had always occupied Rumeli Hisar or would retake it wouldn't matter. Yes, the Greeks had beaten the odds in 1453, but the chances of a repeat would be even lower. At this point, mathematics take over. The Ottomans have significant advantages in every area, and with the advances in gunpowder technology, the famed Theodosian Walls become more and more obsolete.