What if Constantinople had never fallen to the Turks?

[seireikhaan]

I disagree with this, particularly the part about the Ottomans not trading with the Byzantines. Trade in the medieval era is not like modern trade: it was essentially impossible to regulate for most nations. The were too few products, too few trade routes, and too primitive transportation systems to allow shifting from one market to another. The Ottomans would always have traded with the Byzantines because they had no choice, there simply wasn't another market available to them at that time. The only choice available was not trading at all, which was only ever used as a short-term political weapon by a nation that needed the trade less than their trade partners did (e.g. the English wool trade with Flanders throughout the medieval period).

Indeed, the Turkish name for the city (Istanbul) is itself emblematic of the huge significance of the place for trade purposes even when the Byzantines and Ottomans were at each others' throats. Istanbul is derived from a Turkish phrase which roughly translates as "into the city." When people asked each other where they were going, if the destination was Constantinople they would simply say "into the city." That was because Constantinople was so massively important to the region, that you didn't need to even name it. Just calling it "the city" was enough to let everyone know what you meant.

You've mentioned Columbus sailing west as proof that it wasn't important. That actually proves the exact opposite. The entire reason that another route to India was needed was because the fall of Constantinople itself was what closed off the old routes eastward. Without the fall of the city to the Ottomans, Columbus would never have gotten funding for his voyage and the Americas would not have been re-discovered until much later. Indeed, the Genoese thought that Constantinople was so important as a trade hub, that they founded an entire city there (Galata) on the north shore of the Horn. The mega-traders of the era, the Genoese and the Venetians, were pretty much the only people that showed up to aid Constantinople in 1453 during the final siege. They appeared because they knew the city was so utterly important to their own trade that it was worth an open war with the Ottomans to prevent its fall.

It is worth noting that the fall of Constantinople actually marks the beginning of the end of the Italian trading empires. After that point, trade shifted to the overseas trade routes, to the Americas, India, and East Asia. Those routes were monopolized by western European powers who were the only ones capable of sustaining regular trade across huge bodies of open water. Again, this was only done because the much cheaper overland route to the East was closed. If that closure never happened, the venture capital for the initial voyages of exploration would not have emerged until much, much later. Italy would have remained prosperous for far longer, and Spain and Portugal in particular would have had a much more stunted economic growth.

I disagree with the premise. If the Ottomans were as open to trade as you claim, then why was the fall of the city itself such a thrust to the new world? The Ottomans already controlled all the routes to the east far before they conquered the actual city itself. Further, the more powerful Italian states had actual outpost very close to Constantinople itself. Again, if the Ottomans were so willing to trade with their neighbors, why did they not simply keep funneling goods from India and China into the Genoese and Venetians after taking Constantinople? It is not as though it was unprofitable. Yes, the two defied the Ottomans in their siege of Constantinople. Yet, that is no different then the Ottoman's difficulties with Byzantium. If the Ottomans were not going to sustain the trade with enemies in Italy, where is the evidence they sustained trade with their enemies in Greece?


As for the new world- the issue at hand, I believe, is not the Byzantines or the Ottomans, though both certainly played roles. My view is that the bigger thrust to the Atlantic was the collapse of political stability over the course of the silk road, following Timurlane's campaigns and the collapse of his own empire. Whether or not Byzantium could exert influence over its Anatolian territories and maintain strong government is only one small piece of the east-west trade puzzle. Simply put, a land route the size of the east/west route needs stability, peace, and proper authority, which did not exist following Timur's wake.


Lastly, on the routes themselves. You claimed that the overland route was cheaper. I, again, disagree. It was cheaper for some, notably the Italian states who, by virtue of their location, got to be middlemen. For the Atlantic states, this trade was not cheap. Even with political stability, there would be at least a dozen middlemen on a land based trade route from India to western Europe, each of which is looking to enrich themselves. When one can trade directly with India, they "cut out the middleman", as the biz likes to say nowadays. Even without the fall of Constantinople, the Atlantic states would have looked for alternative ways of obtaining this trade. Both to help their own pocketbooks and to strike political blows at the wealthy Venetians, Genoese, and other trade states. You pointed out that the "mega-traders of the day" came to Constantinople's rescue. I would also point out who didn't come. The French, the English, the Aragonese, the Castillans. They had little reason to go out of their way to support the Italians or Greeks. Not coincidentally, they would be the ones who would have rendered the old Byzantine order defunct anyways by finding a better route.

Basicallly, to summarize: The Atlantic powers had numerous reasons to find a water route to India and China. The land route had issues with stability, they had to go through numerous middlemen, which raised prices substantially, finding a way to offset the wealth of the Italian states, a land based route takes much longer than a water based route, and advances in ocean faring technology(see Henry the Navigator and Azores) were enabling much longer voyages. (and as a possible, though, IIRC, unconfirmable explanation, the search for Prestor John's gold )

[Fragony]

(and as a possible, though, IIRC, unconfirmable explanation, the search for Prestor John's gold )

They didn't have the technoligy to get that far at the time, they used the currents, to cross the cape they had to go as far as South America. They had already established trading empire all around the west-African coast for while before getting at the cape.