From what i gather from the relevant parameters in the AI preferences for the AI personalities, the AI clans can invade you on the basis of:
a) They think that they are ready to invade you.
b) They find your border garissons weak enough to chance an opportunistic attack and see what happens further.
There are "invasion values" that control these and these values are lowered if you are an ally and to a certain extent if you are neutral. They are highest if you are at war. So by being an ally you increase your chances of the AI laeving you in peace and selecting other targets until your hands are freed. In the same manner even if an AI clan attempts to attack you unsuccesfully, you can offer ceasefire or accept their offer - dont stubbornly reject it, because then the AI may also stubbornly keep attacking you which although not dangerous may steal precious development time and resources or progress against another clan.
The AI clans are ruthless as you are but are also facing the same multifront problem that you do; so unless the AI feels absolutely ready to invade you (that is he is extremely rich and prosperous and has a lot of regions etc), these considerations matter to him. Once he is ready though you can discard them, which is basically the same the player does. But you can tell when he has reached this point because then he completely disregard diplomacy not only towards you but towards the other AI clans too.
edit: Forgtot to mention that certain Daimyos are assigned personalities that are less trustworthy than others. Typically in the beginning of the game, the Hojo and Shimazu are reliable, while the Takeda and Mori are not with the other three gravitating in between. However their heirs can be given different personalities at random. To know the personality of teh Daimyo you must have any agent in the province he resides for the season; then right click the base of his counter iirc.
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