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Thread: Hit and miss men

  1. #1
    Nec Pluribus Impar Member SwordsMaster's Avatar
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    Default Hit and miss men

    It seemed fitting, on the day that Oswald was killed, and a few days after Assassin's Creed II became commercial to address political assassinations. However, this paper was an unexpected finding.

    Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a
    new data set of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to
    2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of
    assassination attempts to identify assassination’s effects. We find that, on
    average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves
    toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of
    small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of
    institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small
    sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history.
    What is interesting about the article is not only that it draws a final conclusion that would make Dr. House's day, but also the fact that it was produced from data by a reputable institution as opposed to a basement-dwelling, tinfoil hat-sporting, youtube conspiracy theorists.

    I for one, personally agree with the report, but what are the orgah's thoughts?

    It's an interesting (and 51 pages long) read.
    Managing perceptions goes hand in hand with managing expectations - Masamune

    Pie is merely the power of the state intruding into the private lives of the working class. - Beirut

  2. #2
    The Usual Member Ice's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by SwordsMaster View Post
    It seemed fitting, on the day that Oswald was killed, and a few days after Assassin's Creed II became commercial to address political assassinations. However, this paper was an unexpected finding.



    What is interesting about the article is not only that it draws a final conclusion that would make Dr. House's day, but also the fact that it was produced from data by a reputable institution as opposed to a basement-dwelling, tinfoil hat-sporting, youtube conspiracy theorists.

    I for one, personally agree with the report, but what are the orgah's thoughts?

    It's an interesting (and 51 pages long) read.
    That's very interesting. If I have the time/will I'll give it a read sometime. Coming from Northwestern, it already holds a lot of credibility.



  3. #3
    has a Senior Member HoreTore's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    How is it a move towards democracy when democratically elected leaders are assassinated and replaced with a military dictatorship?
    Still maintain that crying on the pitch should warrant a 3 match ban

  4. #4
    Poll Smoker Senior Member CountArach's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by HoreTore View Post
    How is it a move towards democracy when democratically elected leaders are assassinated and replaced with a military dictatorship?
    Is a coup counted as an assassination?
    Rest in Peace TosaInu, the Org will be your legacy
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  5. #5
    Chieftain of the Pudding Race Member Evil_Maniac From Mars's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by HoreTore View Post
    How is it a move towards democracy when democratically elected leaders are assassinated and replaced with a military dictatorship?
    Being democratically elected doesn't necessarily ensure that a ruler is democratic, as we in Germany know very well (sort of)*.


    *Leader in question wasn't democratic how he acquired power, just in being elected.
    Last edited by Evil_Maniac From Mars; 11-25-2009 at 04:56.

  6. #6
    Devout worshipper of Bilious Member miotas's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by HoreTore View Post
    How is it a move towards democracy when democratically elected leaders are assassinated and replaced with a military dictatorship?
    The quoted text actually mentions autocrats, not democratically elected leaders.

    - Four Horsemen of the Presence

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    has a Senior Member HoreTore's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by CountArach View Post
    Is a coup counted as an assassination?
    No, but an assassination can be followed by a coup....

    Quote Originally Posted by miotas View Post
    The quoted text actually mentions autocrats, not democratically elected leaders.
    Well then it's kind of a no-brainer then, isn't it? A dictator sure as hell isn't going to relinquish his power(why on earth would he?), but when he's gone, his successor might not have the same oppression skills...

    No need for a study to prove that killing a dictator makes democracy more likely.
    Still maintain that crying on the pitch should warrant a 3 match ban

  8. #8
    Enlightened Despot Member Vladimir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by miotas View Post
    The quoted text actually mentions autocrats, not democratically elected leaders.
    Don't confuse him with trivial details like that.


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  9. #9
    has a Senior Member HoreTore's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by Vladimir View Post
    Don't confuse him with trivial details like that.
    Sorry?
    Still maintain that crying on the pitch should warrant a 3 match ban

  10. #10

    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by HoreTore View Post
    No, but an assassination can be followed by a coup....



    Well then it's kind of a no-brainer then, isn't it? A dictator sure as hell isn't going to relinquish his power(why on earth would he?), but when he's gone, his successor might not have the same oppression skills...

    No need for a study to prove that killing a dictator makes democracy more likely.
    It isn't a no brainer, and lots of no brainers end up being false.

    I have heard it argued before that assassinating a leader will just have someone just as bad step in. And perhaps someone more paranoid.

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    Nec Pluribus Impar Member SwordsMaster's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Now, now, please keep it civil, and please read the whole report and not just the few lines I quoted. That is supposed to give you a taste, not a conclusion. It's worth the read.
    Managing perceptions goes hand in hand with managing expectations - Masamune

    Pie is merely the power of the state intruding into the private lives of the working class. - Beirut

  12. #12
    has a Senior Member HoreTore's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by SwordsMaster View Post
    Now, now, please keep it civil, and please read the whole report and not just the few lines I quoted. That is supposed to give you a taste, not a conclusion. It's worth the read.
    51 pages? No way. My time for stuff like that is devoted to plowing through Anthony Beevor's excellent books...
    Still maintain that crying on the pitch should warrant a 3 match ban

  13. #13
    Nec Pluribus Impar Member SwordsMaster's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by HoreTore View Post
    51 pages? No way. My time for stuff like that is devoted to plowing through Anthony Beevor's excellent books...
    ... And posting one-liners...
    Managing perceptions goes hand in hand with managing expectations - Masamune

    Pie is merely the power of the state intruding into the private lives of the working class. - Beirut

  14. #14
    has a Senior Member HoreTore's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hit and miss men

    Quote Originally Posted by SwordsMaster View Post
    ... And posting one-liners...
    Indeed!

    I do that while FM2010 does its processing thingy
    Still maintain that crying on the pitch should warrant a 3 match ban

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