Hit and miss men

[SwordsMaster]

It seemed fitting, on the day that Oswald was killed, and a few days after Assassin's Creed II became commercial to address political assassinations. However, this paper was an unexpected finding.

Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a
new data set of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to
2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of
assassination attempts to identify assassination’s effects. We find that, on
average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves
toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of
small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of
institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small
sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history.

What is interesting about the article is not only that it draws a final conclusion that would make Dr. House's day, but also the fact that it was produced from data by a reputable institution as opposed to a basement-dwelling, tinfoil hat-sporting, youtube conspiracy theorists.

I for one, personally agree with the report, but what are the orgah's thoughts?

It's an interesting (and 51 pages long) read.

[Ice]

It seemed fitting, on the day that Oswald was killed, and a few days after Assassin's Creed II became commercial to address political assassinations. However, this paper was an unexpected finding.



What is interesting about the article is not only that it draws a final conclusion that would make Dr. House's day, but also the fact that it was produced from data by a reputable institution as opposed to a basement-dwelling, tinfoil hat-sporting, youtube conspiracy theorists.

I for one, personally agree with the report, but what are the orgah's thoughts?

It's an interesting (and 51 pages long) read.

That's very interesting. If I have the time/will I'll give it a read sometime. Coming from Northwestern, it already holds a lot of credibility.

[HoreTore]

How is it a move towards democracy when democratically elected leaders are assassinated and replaced with a military dictatorship?

[CountArach]

How is it a move towards democracy when democratically elected leaders are assassinated and replaced with a military dictatorship?

Is a coup counted as an assassination?

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

How is it a move towards democracy when democratically elected leaders are assassinated and replaced with a military dictatorship?

Being democratically elected doesn't necessarily ensure that a ruler is democratic, as we in Germany know very well (sort of)*.


*Leader in question wasn't democratic how he acquired power, just in being elected.

[miotas]

How is it a move towards democracy when democratically elected leaders are assassinated and replaced with a military dictatorship?

The quoted text actually mentions autocrats, not democratically elected leaders.

[HoreTore]

Is a coup counted as an assassination?

No, but an assassination can be followed by a coup....

The quoted text actually mentions autocrats, not democratically elected leaders.

Well then it's kind of a no-brainer then, isn't it? A dictator sure as hell isn't going to relinquish his power(why on earth would he?), but when he's gone, his successor might not have the same oppression skills...

No need for a study to prove that killing a dictator makes democracy more likely.

[Vladimir]

The quoted text actually mentions autocrats, not democratically elected leaders.

Don't confuse him with trivial details like that.

[HoreTore]

Don't confuse him with trivial details like that.

Sorry?

[Sasaki Kojiro]

No, but an assassination can be followed by a coup....



Well then it's kind of a no-brainer then, isn't it? A dictator sure as hell isn't going to relinquish his power(why on earth would he?), but when he's gone, his successor might not have the same oppression skills...

No need for a study to prove that killing a dictator makes democracy more likely.

It isn't a no brainer, and lots of no brainers end up being false.

I have heard it argued before that assassinating a leader will just have someone just as bad step in. And perhaps someone more paranoid.

[SwordsMaster]

Now, now, please keep it civil, and please read the whole report and not just the few lines I quoted. That is supposed to give you a taste, not a conclusion. It's worth the read.

[HoreTore]

Now, now, please keep it civil, and please read the whole report and not just the few lines I quoted. That is supposed to give you a taste, not a conclusion. It's worth the read.

51 pages? No way. My time for stuff like that is devoted to plowing through Anthony Beevor's excellent books...

[SwordsMaster]

51 pages? No way. My time for stuff like that is devoted to plowing through Anthony Beevor's excellent books...

... And posting one-liners...

[HoreTore]

... And posting one-liners...

Indeed!

I do that while FM2010 does its processing thingy