The United Kingdom Elections 2010

[Furunculus]

I think Cameron has more to fear from Clegg than Brown does. I think you will see Labour continuing to 'talk about their policy' (repeat same soundbites) and the Conservatives will step up their attacks on the Lib Dems. The Cons need the floaters to win, Labour just needs the floaters to not vote Tory to win.

My prediction - narrow Labour win.

good man. :D

Yes, predictions are always fun as one doesn't need anything like evidence. But let's face it: all partys do it to support their latest plan - how locking up criminials will "save" billions to care in the community will "save" billions... Who can truly say?

The election system is bias enough that Labour can get a majority will a much smaller percentage of the populace than the Tories. I hope for a hung parliment at least, preverably a slight Tory win (seeing as UKIP aren't going to win masses of seats.

but what do you think is going to happen, nail your colours to the mast.........?

[rory_20_uk]

good man. :D



but what do you think is going to happen, nail your colours to the mast.........?

Hung parliment. So much disillusionment for Labour, distrust of Tories which will probably increase overal share to others. Probably only Lib Dems will see this translated into seats though.
I really hope I'm wrong. A party with a majority has enough intertia. No party majority is a recepie for paralysis. If the same as heppened last time occurs, no party will want to cut anything as there's always a view to a new election being called and who wants to be the bad guy?

[Furunculus]

Hung parliment. So much disillusionment for Labour, distrust of Tories which will probably increase overal share to others. Probably only Lib Dems will see this translated into seats though.
I really hope I'm wrong. A party with a majority has enough intertia. No party majority is a recepie for paralysis. If the same as heppened last time occurs, no party will want to cut anything as there's always a view to a new election being called and who wants to be the bad guy?

so out the other side of the election train-wreck you foresee................... a conservative minority government, or a lib-lab coalition?

[Vladimir]

BBC America last night blamed the politeness of the three way debate on American influence. Evidently they wanted to see a more brutal, question time-like approach to the debate. I think this is the first time the U.S. was blamed for causing things to be too polite.

[rory_20_uk]

Gordon would ally with Satan to keep his claws on power. The lib dems will have demands for a coalition, and I imagine Gordon would accept almost anything. So, assuming no majority in power, I would see Lib-Lab coalition rather than Tory minority. There is a precedent in Scotland, after all.

Can two leaders both petition the queen to be PM? What happens then?

[Furunculus]

Gordon would ally with Satan to keep his claws on power. The lib dems will have demands for a coalition, and I imagine Gordon would accept almost anything. So, assuming no majority in power, I would see Lib-Lab coalition rather than Tory minority. There is a precedent in Scotland, after all.

Can two leaders both petition the queen to be PM? What happens then?

roger that.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Can two leaders both petition the queen to be PM? What happens then?

The constitutional position is that whilst Parliament is dissolved, ministers stay appointed. That includes the Prime Minister. Regardless of the result of the election, he continues in office until replaced by the will of Parliament or dismissed by Her Majesty.

Convention dictates that a Prime Minister whose party has lost an election decisively, and therefore will be definitively voted out once Parliament sits, stands down immediately. Not to do so would cause a constitutional crisis resolved only by the Queen dismissing him. However, if a sitting Prime Minister thinks he can form a government from whatever has been presented as a Parliament, he has the right to try. The monarch may, on advice, invite him to try or ask him to stand down because the mandate of the people clearly indicates a different desire. She would be unlikely to do the latter, but may give him only a few days, even hours (since if the will of the electorate were that clear, one assumes it would have expressed through the ballot box).

If he fails, Her Majesty would invite another leader to try and form a government. This not by petition - it is the monarch's prerogative, though convention dictates that she would choose the leader of the biggest (but in this scenario, still minority) party. If that leader then fails to form a government (remember, this is a government that will not be brought down by the first vote in the newly constituted Parliament) she may invite some one else, but in this case, the sitting Prime Minister (yes, he's still there unless dismissed) would either wait till Parliament voted him out on the first day, or call another election.

[InsaneApache]

One would assume that they stay in place because they are ministers of the crown, rather than ministers for the Labour party as they are usually.

I mean, they have a political mastermind of Vince Cable behind them as well

Do a bit of research. The guy flip flops more than a landed flounder.

[Beskar]

Do a bit of research. The guy flip flops more than a landed flounder.

You mean Cameron? Yes, he is the mastermind of flounce.

[InsaneApache]

Do a bit of research. The guy flip flops more than a landed flounder.

Isn't the biggest myth of this election your reputation.

[Idaho]

Gordon would ally with Satan to keep his claws on power.

They all would Rory. That's what they are in it for.

I heartily recommend Paxman's book - The Political Animal for a cruel eye on what motivates them.

[Louis VI the Fat]

BBC America last night blamed the politeness of the three way debate on American influence. Evidently they wanted to see a more brutal, question time-like approach to the debate. I think this is the first time the U.S. was blamed for causing things to be too polite.

US politeness has two faces: it is a sign of refreshingly good manners. And it can be plasticy, slick. In politics, obviously the latter aspect dominates. Studied sound bites, evasive answers, pandering to market segments. Not to mention, middle-aged men with more make-up than 21 year old girls on a night out, smiles revealing teeth that are too white, and hair that stays in exact artificial shape regardless of weather conditions.

God forbid the second aspects creeps into European politics, and especially that of the UK, even more than it already does.

so out the other side of the election train-wreck you foresee................... a conservative minority government, or a lib-lab coalition?

Go on, give us your prediction between the two. After thirteen years of Labour in government, reaching a low point in approval rates, it is not difficult predict the other guys will get in. It's akin to correctly predicting Man Ure will beat Stoke city. Predictions are about close calls, like 'will Manchester beat Bayern Munich?'. When Labour was trailing behind by fourteen points, JAG several months ago predicted this gap would be closed. Now that's what I call political instinct.

[Furunculus]

US politeness has two faces: it is a sign of refreshingly good manners. And it can be plasticy, slick. In politics, obviously the latter aspect dominates. Studied sound bites, evasive answers, pandering to market segments. Not to mention, middle-aged men with more make-up than 21 year old girls on a night out, smiles revealing teeth that are too white, and hair that stays in exact artificial shape regardless of weather conditions.

God forbid the second aspects creeps into European politics, and especially that of the UK, even more than it already does.

Go on, give us your prediction between the two. After thirteen years of Labour in government, reaching a low point in approval rates, it is not difficult predict the other guys will get in. It's akin to correctly predicting Man Ure will beat Stoke city. Predictions are about close calls, like 'will Manchester beat Bayern Munich?'. When Labour was trailing behind by fourteen points, JAG several months ago predicted this gap would be closed. Now that's what I call political instinct.

my prediction is noted, what about yours?
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2470254

[Louis VI the Fat]

The debate for us ITV-deprived foreigners:





I've been watching some of it just now. Not all of it, as I got a tad bored and switched to more exciting videos, such as the 1978 Sunderland darts championschip.

~~o~~o~~<<oOo>>~~o~~o~~

what do you think is going to happen

No majority. I predict Brown will turn out massively hung. He'll refuse to get into bed with the LibDems, making it all even harder for him than it already is. New elections after eightteen months.

[Beskar]

The debate for us ITV-deprived foreigners:

I've been watching some of it just now. Not all of it, as I got a tad bored and switched to more riveting videos, such as the 1978 Sunderland darts championschip.

I am surprised the BBC didn't host the show, that would have been the obvious choice.

[Myrddraal]

Iirc there will be three debates, each hosted by the three major channels, ITV, Channel 4, BBC

[Furunculus]

Iirc there will be three debates, each hosted by the three major channels, ITV, Channel 4, BBC

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...ection-debates

Three live face-to-face debates between Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg will take place in mid-evening weekday slots in front of studio audiences on BBC, ITV and Sky News.

General election 2010
Broadcasters reveal details of leaders' election debates
Three live face-to-face debates between Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg will take place in mid-evening weekday slots in front of studio audiences on BBC, ITV and Sky News.

The first debate, screened on ITV1 and moderated by Alastair Stewart, will be filmed in the north-west of England and look at the theme of domestic affairs.

The second debate will be screened on Sky News and moderated by Adam Boulton. Its themed section will be on international affairs and it will come from the south-west of England.

The final debate will be screened on BBC1, moderated by David Dimbleby, and will focus on the theme of economic affairs. The programme will be based in the Midlands.

mor info:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...ates-will-work

[Subotan]

Wowww

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...an-icm-poll-pm

Nick Clegg has surged into contention as a potential prime minister, according to a Guardian/ICM poll carried out following last night's TV leaders' debate.
A quarter of voters who watched the three leaders on the ITV programme say they will switch their vote, with most changing to the Liberal Democrats.
Clegg emerges from the telephone poll as the overwhelming winner, with 51% who watched saying he came out on top. David Cameron and Gordon Brown trail in far behind: 20% say Cameron won and 19% Brown.
The poll, based on a sample of 505 voters who had previously told ICM how they would vote, found Conservative and Labour supporters also thought Clegg won the event. While 44% of Tories thought Cameron won, 46% thought Clegg did. Among Labour voters, 43% said Brown won, and 44% Clegg.
The Guardian poll coincides with a survey of voting intentions carried out by ComRes for ITV. It showed support for the Conservatives was unchanged at 35%, with Labour down one point on 28%, and the Lib Dems up three on 24%.
Among those voters who had watched the debate, the surge in Lib Dem support was more dramatic: up 14 points to 35%, only a shade behind the Conservatives on 36%, who were down three. Labour languished in third place, at 24%, down three points.
According to the ICM poll for the Guardian, Clegg appears to have won the affections of voters across the board. He now runs Brown neck and neck as the man voters think would make the best prime minister, 29% to 29%. Cameron remains just ahead on 33%.
Clegg is also far ahead as the leader who offers substance over spin. Cameron comes off worst among people who saw the debate, with 47% saying he is more spin than substance against 36% who say that of Brown and 11% Clegg.
Cameron performed particularly badly with Lib Dem supporters, with 61% saying he offered spin over substance. That suggests the Tory leader's appeal to centre ground voters is faltering.
The debate had a clear impact on people's voting intentions, although the effect may fade as polling day approaches. Among people who saw the debate, 23% say they will change their mind, including 25% of Conservatives and 21% of Labour voters.
Most of them are going to the Lib Dems, with 54% of people changing their minds saying they will move to the party. A further 17% say they will switch to Labour. The Conservatives have attracted the least new support with only 13% saying they plan to move their vote to the party.
• ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 505 people by telephone on 15th April 2010. It re-interviewed people who had previously been selected at random who told us they would be watching the debate and had agreed to be interviewed again. The sample has been weighted to the profile of all people selected at random who previously stated they would be watching the debate. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

[rory_20_uk]

People are idiots. 90 mins of talking and people are prepared to alter who runs the country for the next c. 5 years

[Furunculus]

Wowww

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...an-icm-poll-pm

forget COmres:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ro...forget-comres/