The United Kingdom Elections 2010

[Furunculus]

anyone else going to join the election sweep-stakes:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JAG (27/02/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2440038

Furunculus (29/04/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

Furunculus (29/03/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

Idaho (16/04/10) - Narrow Labour win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471029

Rory (16/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471056

CountArch (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476911

Banquo's Ghost (29/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480078

Banquo's Ghost (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476913

Louis (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480070

Louis (23/04/10) - Labour led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476925

Tbilicus (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476926

Insane Apache (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476935

Beskar (23/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2477082

Alh_P (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480111

Seamus Fermanagh (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480262

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and have i missed anyone out?

p.s. you can can change your vote, but the original will also be retained..........

[al Roumi]

On last night's debate, I'm glad they at least spoke about the what would be required to cover the gap in debt and spending -the Lib dem idea of a cross-party comission sounds good given the severity of the situation, its also a + for parliamentary action.

Beyond that and the basic "we will cut taxes"/"we will support services", there wasn't much offered which was new. It kind of played into Gordy's hands as the rest of the debate was about services and completely devoid of the practical "we will pay for these services by..."

Amused to see how Clegg has stolen the Tory "change" mantra, with his own stronger one: "it's these guys fault, they've been in power since... [er, since we were]". Lol

Clegg's best point IMO was on immigration where he showed the Tory policy of no non-skilled non-european immigrants to be largely pointless. As to these non-Eu non skilled migrants who are reportedly flocking from Afghanistan, I am intrigued how anyone who is pro the UK's mission there and against dumping the country and its people in the sheister, can be so un-accomodating/revulsed by Afghans arriving or seeking refuge here -aren't we meant to be over there at least on one level to make things better for them?

The chair left a couple of questions run a bit too long IMO, there were a couple where all 3 leaders basically agreed with each other and struggled to really say more.

I actually found clegg a little patronising at times, but sensible at others. Gordon was good once he delivered his awful intro, his smiling and laughing actually looked genuine for once. Cameron was earnest but I'm not sure his refusal to be drawn inito a couple of discussion was a great move on an occasion when he was meant to extol and present his views and reasoning.

Edit: Just rereading my post I realise how clear a Cleggmanic I have become... the shame!

[rory_20_uk]

On last night's debate, I'm glad they at least spoke about the what would be required to cover the gap in debt and spending -the Lib dem idea of a cross-party comission sounds good given the severity of the situation, its also a + for parliamentary action.

Beyond that and the basic "we will cut taxes"/"we will support services", there wasn't much offered which was new. It kind of played into Gordy's hands as the rest of the debate was about services and completely devoid of the practical "we will pay for these services by..."

Amused to see how Clegg has stolen the Tory "change" mantra, with his own stronger one: "it's these guys fault, they've been in power since... [er, since we were]". Lol

Clegg's best point IMO was on immigration where he showed the Tory policy of no non-skilled non-european immigrants to be largely pointless. As to these non-Eu non skilled migrants who are reportedly flocking from Afghanistan, I am intrigued how anyone who is pro the UK's mission there and against dumping the country and its people in the sheister, can be so un-accomodating/revulsed by Afghans arriving or seeking refuge here -aren't we meant to be over there at least on one level to make things better for them?

The chair left a couple of questions run a bit too long IMO, there were a couple where all 3 leaders basically agreed with each other and struggled to really say more.

I actually found clegg a little patronising at times, but sensible at others. Gordon was good once he delivered his awful intro, his smiling and laughing actually looked genuine for once. Cameron was earnest but I'm not sure his refusal to be drawn inito a couple of discussion was a great move on an occasion when he was meant to extol and present his views and reasoning.

Cross party review sounds good. Also ensures Lib Dems a place at the high table, which is of course what they want.

Outlining what to cut is a massive vote looser. No party can afford to be honest about that. Noticed how the Lib Dems have got vaguer on this as they now have a real chance at power?

Our troops are over there dying not so they can seek refuge in the UK - having crossed a vast number of other safe countries where they should seek refuge under International Law. Their country was in the **** since at least the 1980's, and things have never geen great since the Mongols trashed the irrigation systems.

[al Roumi]

Our troops are over there dying not so they can seek refuge in the UK

Is that why ISAF are in Afghanistan?

having crossed a vast number of other safe countries where they should seek refuge under International Law. Their country was in the sh*t since at least the 1980's, and things have never geen great since the Mongols trashed the irrigation systems.

Right, but as we are there now, taking responsability and trying to get the place back on its feet (as we see it) -can you fault them for thinking we might also take some sort of responsability for Afghans caught in what is a very live warzone?

[Furunculus]

got twelve predictions so far, anyone else gonna join the party?

i'm beginning to feel more confident about a narrow tory majority.

[rory_20_uk]

Wishful thinking is not by itself a sufficient reason.

Merely that we are expending masses of resources to fix their mess doesn't then mean we have to help them even further. A warzone requires two lots of fighters. The other lot are Afghans.

I see it as a massive waste of time and money. Leave these backward facing people to whatever medieval practices they want., merely trade what we need with whoever sells it.

[Furunculus]

Clegg's best point IMO was on immigration where he showed the Tory policy of no non-skilled non-european immigrants to be largely pointless.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...on-debate.html

[al Roumi]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...on-debate.html

Ahah, well pointed out, but:

"Lib Dems officials later attempted to defend the 80 per cent figure, saying it was “supported” by a briefing in the Economist magazine.

The report said that non-EU immigrations make up one fifth of foreign workers [20%], but only when students are excluded from the figures. "

I would (even without my partisan bias) argue that this justifies Clegg's figures - Students are for 1 clearly not the sort to be un-skilled migrants, are probably here only for the duration of their studies and lastly: UK universities get substantial revenues from the fees of foreign students.

[rory_20_uk]

What percentage attend bogus colleges and are here merely to work? Not a rhetorical question - I've no idea. The Daily Mail probably would say about 130%, the guardian 0%.

We have increased degrees to courses that make use of the work "skilled" risible.

[InsaneApache]

Just watched Brillo interviewing the leader of the Monster Raving Looney Party. Hilarious. Asked why they had fielded candidates against Clegg and Cameron but not against Brown, he said that it was too far to go! LOL.

He also suggested that the EU gives up the euro because of the problems they are having and instead join Sterling. Then with the UK being the biggest island in the EU, he proposes that we become a tax haven.

At last! A party that says what it means and means what it says. They've got my vote.

[Furunculus]

Just watched Brillo interviewing the leader of the Monster Raving Looney Party. Hilarious. Asked why they had fielded candidates against Clegg and Cameron but not against Brown, he said that it was too far to go! LOL.

He also suggested that the EU gives up the euro because of the problems they are having and instead join Sterling. Then with the UK being the biggest island in the EU, he proposes that we become a tax haven.

At last! A party that says what it means and means what it says. They've got my vote.

roflmao! i like it.

[Beskar]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...on-debate.html

The report said that non-EU immigrations make up one fifth of foreign workers, but only when students are excluded from the figures.

I don't see where the problem is. Foriegn students pay lots of money into university (which doesn't get taken from tax payers) and they only fill up the places which are not taken up by Homegrown students. They are only here for a few years and then they leave, or they are simply here for a year.

This includes a great many students mostly from American, Canada and Europe.

[Furunculus]

I don't see where the problem is. Foriegn students pay lots of money into university (which doesn't get taken from tax payers) and they only fill up the places which are not taken up by Homegrown students. They are only here for a few years and then they leave, or they are simply here for a year.

This includes a great many students mostly from American, Canada and Europe.

i feel you deliberately miss the point, if the EU accounts for only 40% of long term immigrants than cameron's plan to cap non-eu residents will be far more effective than Clegg insiinuated when he used the 80% figure.

[Subotan]

You missed me

Conservative & Unionist led Minority government.

[Furunculus]

anyone else going to join the election sweep-stakes:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JAG (27/02/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2440038

Furunculus (29/04/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

Furunculus (29/03/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

Idaho (16/04/10) - Narrow Labour win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471029

Rory (16/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471056

CountArch (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480544

CountArch (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476911

Banquo's Ghost (29/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480078

Banquo's Ghost (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476913

Louis (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480070

Louis (23/04/10) - Labour led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476925

Tbilicus (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476926

Insane Apache (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476935

Beskar (23/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2477082

Alh_P (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480111

Seamus Fermanagh (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480262

Subotan (30/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480536

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

and have i missed anyone out?

p.s. you can can change your vote, but the original will also be retained..........

[CountArach]

Changing my bet to a Tory led hung parliament with Lib Dems coming in second on votes.

[Banquo's Ghost]

I found the debate profoundly depressing. Not one of the aspiring leaders of the United Kingdom appears to have any clue as to how to address the deficit, and if they have a clue, they are not willing to share it with the electorate. A government without any sort of mandate for the austerity needed is going to have real problems.

They quibbled about inconsequential things to a nauseating degree, but carefully avoided the biggest question of all.

Performance-wise, Brown was most improved, but still irrelevant. Cameron did enough but was still utterly unconvincing - I thought he made a small tactical error by continually referring to Brown as "Prime Minister". Last week he scored by referring to himself as "if I were your Prime Minister". Clegg was adequate but dealt with Cameron's occasional attacks pretty well. He was the most engaging, but since this is not a presidential election, I was looking for more substance on policy.

I shall be voting Conservative, but with a heavy heart and a deep sense of unease. Cameron is likely to make a useless Prime Minister since he hasn't displayed any spine at all. He will have a feeble mandate, and none whatsoever for the necessary decisions. I think the Governor of the Bank of England was quite correct in his observation, and a Tory government with a wafer-thin majority will be paralysed, indecisive and cowardly - ultimately forced to make swinging cuts and substantial tax rises, which will re-establish all the bad characteristics associated with Conservative rule - and then fall out of power and be punished for a very long time ahead. This would be a very good election to lose, methinks.

I have even less time for George Osborne, but can only hope that he is given the poisoned chalice of introducing the cuts and taxes, then to be Lamonted out of office and Ken Clarke brought in as Chancellor. At least the Tories have someone of Clarke's calibre in the wings, whereas pretty much everyone else of any party is a real lightweight. I actually believe that Brown has the capability, but he has shown himself to be a rank coward politically so many times, there is no way he could handle the coming years and he could certainly no longer bring the electorate with him.

There's another, entirely selfish reason for a Tory vote, and that is the inheritance tax reduction. It's horribly unjust, but I am liable for enormous amounts of inheritance tax and any reduction will be welcome.

[Furunculus]

I shall be voting Conservative, but with a heavy heart and a deep sense of unease. Cameron is likely to make a useless Prime Minister since he hasn't displayed any spine at all. He will have a feeble mandate, and none whatsoever for the necessary decisions.

excellent point.

[rory_20_uk]

Greece might prove to be a blessing in disguise. That could soon be us. The electorate might not like what is going on, and might be sceptical - but when they can see insurrection in a European country occurring now due to their inability to cut their debt might help focus the public.

The other option is if there is unrest after the Budget to call a further election. If the populace is mad enough to go for a party promising fairy gold well, so be it - history will prove their folly.

[Furunculus]

PVC, what is your prediction?

[Furunculus]

Maybe we should also have a list of voting intentions, might be interesting to tally against the predictions?

----------------------------------
Furunculus = Con

----------------------------------

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I found the debate profoundly depressing. Not one of the aspiring leaders of the United Kingdom appears to have any clue as to how to address the deficit, and if they have a clue, they are not willing to share it with the electorate. A government without any sort of mandate for the austerity needed is going to have real problems.

They quibbled about inconsequential things to a nauseating degree, but carefully avoided the biggest question of all.

Performance-wise, Brown was most improved, but still irrelevant. Cameron did enough but was still utterly unconvincing - I thought he made a small tactical error by continually referring to Brown as "Prime Minister". Last week he scored by referring to himself as "if I were your Prime Minister". Clegg was adequate but dealt with Cameron's occasional attacks pretty well. He was the most engaging, but since this is not a presidential election, I was looking for more substance on policy.

I shall be voting Conservative, but with a heavy heart and a deep sense of unease. Cameron is likely to make a useless Prime Minister since he hasn't displayed any spine at all. He will have a feeble mandate, and none whatsoever for the necessary decisions. I think the Governor of the Bank of England was quite correct in his observation, and a Tory government with a wafer-thin majority will be paralysed, indecisive and cowardly - ultimately forced to make swinging cuts and substantial tax rises, which will re-establish all the bad characteristics associated with Conservative rule - and then fall out of power and be punished for a very long time ahead. This would be a very good election to lose, methinks.

I have even less time for George Osborne, but can only hope that he is given the poisoned chalice of introducing the cuts and taxes, then to be Lamonted out of office and Ken Clarke brought in as Chancellor. At least the Tories have someone of Clarke's calibre in the wings, whereas pretty much everyone else of any party is a real lightweight. I actually believe that Brown has the capability, but he has shown himself to be a rank coward politically so many times, there is no way he could handle the coming years and he could certainly no longer bring the electorate with him.

There's another, entirely selfish reason for a Tory vote, and that is the inheritance tax reduction. It's horribly unjust, but I am liable for enormous amounts of inheritance tax and any reduction will be welcome.

I would tend to agree on every point, with the proviso that I am unlikely to be liable for large amounts of inherritence tax.

[Beskar]

I found the debate profoundly depressing. Not one of the aspiring leaders of the United Kingdom appears to have any clue as to how to address the deficit, and if they have a clue, they are not willing to share it with the electorate.

I got a few ideas on how to tackle it. Equip me with the red box and a team of number crunchers, and you will see us debt-free by 2025-30 with my five year plans.

[tibilicus]

On the subject of last nights debate, I don't see how on earth any one thought Cameron won.

He failed to explain his economic policies coherently without dropping in the word "waste" at every possibility. What does it even mean? From what he has said in last nights debate and previous debates I'm incredibly concerned that Dave and co's plan to reduce the deficit is to reduce the number of paper clips going around Whitehall and to cut up senior civil servants credit cards. This is actually what he's said in both debates. Yes, I gather the other two are also fairly awful but at the end of the day an ideological commitment to getting rid of "big government" isn't an economic solution. I get it may be part of the solution but when the Tories fail to explain where the rest of the money will come from, because quite frankly cutting back on paper clips isn't going to do sweet F all, it leaves us in a worrying position. Cam and co's opposition to tax rises is also absurd. No one wants higher taxes, but the point is with a deficit this big taxes are going to have to go up some where. To promise you wont raises taxes is absurd and a flat out lie, no matter which party wins next week taxes will inevitably have to go up at some point, that's my reasoning.

I would feel much easier about Conservative economic policy if Ken Clarke was shadow Chancellor. Clarke is a man with credibility and experience with tough economic situations. Just a shame we lack credible political alternatives. I will say this as a warning to anyone who's voting tory next week; If George Osborne is going to be as affective at his job as chancellor as he is at his role as a constituency MP, your all in for a pretty bumpy ride. The guy quite frankly abuses the comfortable tory majority round her, much like a certain MP before him. You will never find George walking round the streets, reassuring the locals. In fact, you will most likely find him posing for staged photos once every blue moon (if he even bothers to do any activities at all) and as for local surgeries, they're pretty much non existent. Even his predecessor made time for those he represented, you know, in between taking money in brown envelopes.

Anyway, end rant. Point being Ken Clarke>George Osborne + tories inability to explain economic policy coherently angers me.

[Idaho]

I found the debate profoundly depressing.

There's another, entirely selfish reason for a Tory vote, and that is the inheritance tax reduction. It's horribly unjust, but I am liable for enormous amounts of inheritance tax and any reduction will be welcome.

I find the reasons for your voting intention profoundly depressing.


As to my own intentions. For about 3 nanoseconds I thought about voting Lib-dem to push up their share of the vote and further show how undemocratic FPTP is. But then I came back to my senses.

None of the above. (I'll even be out of the country on election day).

[Banquo's Ghost]

I find the reasons for your voting intention profoundly depressing.

I thought you might.

I am responsible for a lot of people's livelihoods, many of whom have worked all their lives for my family. When my father died, the death duties were substantial and it has only been through tough decisions (and the staff's extraordinary dedication) that I did not have to lay off any of the long standing workers. (The irony is, because of inheritance tax, it's not even practicable to set aside savings for the evil day to protect their future, because that's just more tax to the Inland Revenue). If I can reduce that burden for my successor, I believe that I have that duty.

My obligation to my hard-working staff on both sides of the Celtic Sea, in two seriously crocked countries, means that the more of my money made unavailable to the ravenous taxman, the more I can keep them and their families safe. I don't have the luxury of moving to a nice tax haven somewhere warm. Whilst I recognise the injustice of the rich benefitting from a tax concession, I would also note that the Tories are going to keep the 50% rate on my income. My choice is to do what is possible to protect people I know from the storm to come (including myself, naturally) rather than "donate" even more cash to the waste-bucket of welfare that supports people for whom I don't have any responsibility.

[Louis VI the Fat]

There's another, entirely selfish reason for a Tory vote, and that is the inheritance tax reduction. It's horribly unjust, but I am liable for enormous amounts of inheritance tax and any reduction will be welcome.

Now that's an excellent reason to vote Conservatives.


So good, in fact, it makes me wonder why the other sixty million minus 3000 Britons would vote Conservative too.

[tibilicus]

The polls today show a slight shift back to the Conservatives. If the electorate does get a wobbly about the lib dems though expect a pretty significant shift of support back to the Tories. I think the threshold for a Conservative majority, all be it very small majority, is roughly 39%. That means that as things stand, we're still on our way to a hung parliament.I wouldn't be to surprised if we see a break for the Tories though. I don't know why but I just have a feeling that it might happen. I can't also see the lib dems polling anything above 30%. If they get 28% it will still be a massive achievement and I for one will certainly be shocked if they manage it. I can't also comprehend why the Labour vote is still holding. In all honesty I can't see why any ones planning to vote for them. If your a progressive left winger the lib dems are certainly the more progressive of the two and I certainly can't see why you would vote for labour on the basis of it's personalities. If anything this election has shown the true extent to which New Labour is all spin spin spin. Gordon can't even handle ordinary people because he's been shielded by the spin doctors for so long.

Also interestingly, will Furunculus be right with his prediction of a small Conservative majority?He's the only one who predicted it and to me at least, it's defiantly still in the equation for a likely outcome.

Anyway, here's the polls.

YouGov/Sunday Times (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)
ComRes/S.Mirror/S.Indy (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

Edit: I don't know why Angus Reid is showing Labour that low. I can't see that as being entirely accurate. In reality Labour support is probably around 28%. Although also notice the lib dem support beginning to drop.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Now that's an excellent reason to vote Conservatives.


So good, in fact, it makes me wonder why the other sixty million minus 3000 Britons would vote Conservative too.

In the absence of any political ideologies, each votes for personal gain. If the Tories win, I expect it will be because more people judge that they will improve their own situation. Idealism needs ideals.