The United Kingdom Elections 2010

**tibilicus** · 05-02-2010, 02:05

The polls today show a slight shift back to the Conservatives. If the electorate does get a wobbly about the lib dems though expect a pretty significant shift of support back to the Tories. I think the threshold for a Conservative majority, all be it very small majority, is roughly 39%. That means that as things stand, we're still on our way to a hung parliament.I wouldn't be to surprised if we see a break for the Tories though. I don't know why but I just have a feeling that it might happen. I can't also see the lib dems polling anything above 30%. If they get 28% it will still be a massive achievement and I for one will certainly be shocked if they manage it. I can't also comprehend why the Labour vote is still holding. In all honesty I can't see why any ones planning to vote for them. If your a progressive left winger the lib dems are certainly the more progressive of the two and I certainly can't see why you would vote for labour on the basis of it's personalities. If anything this election has shown the true extent to which New Labour is all spin spin spin. Gordon can't even handle ordinary people because he's been shielded by the spin doctors for so long.

Also interestingly, will Furunculus be right with his prediction of a small Conservative majority?He's the only one who predicted it and to me at least, it's defiantly still in the equation for a likely outcome.

Anyway, here's the polls.

YouGov/Sunday Times (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)
ComRes/S.Mirror/S.Indy (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

Edit: I don't know why Angus Reid is showing Labour that low. I can't see that as being entirely accurate. In reality Labour support is probably around 28%. Although also notice the lib dem support beginning to drop.

**InsaneApache** · 05-02-2010, 02:15

Yep. After the dissin of a pensioner and the ejaculating of a heckler at another of Browns 'meet the real people' rallies (what a patronising

)

I've had a change of heart.

Tory minority gov.

So lib-dems on board, as and when.

Labour, lost deposits all around. (OK that's just a wet dream

)

**Philippus Flavius Homovallumus** · 05-02-2010, 02:26

Originally Posted by tibilicus

The polls today show a slight shift back to the Conservatives. If the electorate does get a wobbly about the lib dems though expect a pretty significant shift of support back to the Tories. I think the threshold for a Conservative majority, all be it very small majority, is roughly 39%. That means that as things stand, we're still on our way to a hung parliament.I wouldn't be to surprised if we see a break for the Tories though. I don't know why but I just have a feeling that it might happen. I can't also see the lib dems polling anything above 30%. If they get 28% it will still be a massive achievement and I for one will certainly be shocked if they manage it. I can't also comprehend why the Labour vote is still holding. In all honesty I can't see why any ones planning to vote for them. If your a progressive left winger the lib dems are certainly the more progressive of the two and I certainly can't see why you would vote for labour on the basis of it's personalities. If anything this election has shown the true extent to which New Labour is all spin spin spin. Gordon can't even handle ordinary people because he's been shielded by the spin doctors for so long.

Also interestingly, will Furunculus be right with his prediction of a small Conservative majority?He's the only one who predicted it and to me at least, it's defiantly still in the equation for a likely outcome.

Anyway, here's the polls.

YouGov/Sunday Times (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)
ComRes/S.Mirror/S.Indy (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

Edit: I don't know why Angus Reid is showing Labour that low. I can't see that as being entirely accurate. In reality Labour support is probably around 28%. Although also notice the lib dem support beginning to drop.

The guy on the next desk over from me still thinks Brown has the most "experience" to fix the economy, and that he can be "trusted" to do it. When I pointed out that it was Brown who created the problem his response was, "yeah, but it would have happened anyway".

You need a more than casual interest in ploitics to see that, ignoring Labour completely, this one man has made more mistakes than not.

**InsaneApache** · 05-02-2010, 02:34

I live in a labour stronghold. Summat like 8000+. I've not met anybody, and I mean anyone who has said that they will vote Labour. 'Round here it's either Lib-Dems or BNP.

Like I keep on saying...

New Labour. New Britain.

**Louis VI the Fat** · 05-02-2010, 03:05

New Britain. New ~~Republicans~~ Conservatives.

A high-flying prospective Conservative MP, credited with shaping many of the party's social policies, founded a church that tried to "cure" homosexuals by driving out their "demons" through prayer.

Philippa Stroud, who is likely to win the Sutton and Cheam seat on Thursday and is head of the Centre for Social Justice, the thinktank set up by the former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith, has heavily influenced David Cameron's beliefs on subjects such as the family. A popular and energetic Tory, she is seen as one of the party's rising stars.

The CSJ reportedly claims to have formulated as many as 70 of the party's policies. Stroud has spoken of how her Christian faith has motivated her to help the poor and of her time spent working with the destitute in Hong Kong. On her return to Britain, in 1989, she founded a church and night shelter in Bedford, the King's Arms Project,

Stroud wrote a book, God's Heart for the Poor, in which she explains how to deal with people showing signs of "demonic activity".

"This reinforces our long-held suspicions that those out of sight, but with their hands on the levers of power, have deeply reactionary ambitions," said Keith Porteous Wood, executive director of the National Secular Society.Ben Summerskill, chief executive of the Stonewall group, said: "If Mrs Stroud has been praying to rid Britain of its homosexuality, she clearly hasn't been praying hard enough. It would be highly regrettable if someone who continued to hold these views held any significant office in government."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...troud-gay-cure

**InsaneApache** · 05-02-2010, 03:08

nm.

I'm drubk/

**Furunculus** · 05-02-2010, 07:32

Originally Posted by tibilicus

The polls today show a slight shift back to the Conservatives. If the electorate does get a wobbly about the lib dems though expect a pretty significant shift of support back to the Tories. I think the threshold for a Conservative majority, all be it very small majority, is roughly 39%. That means that as things stand, we're still on our way to a hung parliament.I wouldn't be to surprised if we see a break for the Tories though. I don't know why but I just have a feeling that it might happen. I can't also see the lib dems polling anything above 30%. If they get 28% it will still be a massive achievement and I for one will certainly be shocked if they manage it. I can't also comprehend why the Labour vote is still holding. In all honesty I can't see why any ones planning to vote for them. If your a progressive left winger the lib dems are certainly the more progressive of the two and I certainly can't see why you would vote for labour on the basis of it's personalities. If anything this election has shown the true extent to which New Labour is all spin spin spin. Gordon can't even handle ordinary people because he's been shielded by the spin doctors for so long.

Also interestingly, will Furunculus be right with his prediction of a small Conservative majority?He's the only one who predicted it and to me at least, it's defiantly still in the equation for a likely outcome.

Anyway, here's the polls.

YouGov/Sunday Times (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)
ComRes/S.Mirror/S.Indy (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

Edit: I don't know why Angus Reid is showing Labour that low. I can't see that as being entirely accurate. In reality Labour support is probably around 28%. Although also notice the lib dem support beginning to drop.

still time to amend your vote...........?

i am away from home atm, so i will update the sweeps tomorrow.

i have seen a blizzard of blue posters when travelling through mid and south wales (surprising) and the same in southern england (not surprising).

**CountArach** · 05-02-2010, 08:39

Originally Posted by tibilicus

Edit: I don't know why Angus Reid is showing Labour that low. I can't see that as being entirely accurate. In reality Labour support is probably around 28%. Although also notice the lib dem support beginning to drop.

Angus Reid don't weight by party preference, unlike most other polling companies.

**Banquo's Ghost** · 05-02-2010, 09:15

Quite extraordinary. Peter Hitchens, in the Mail on Sunday, tells conservative voters not to vote for David Cameron.

He is truly what he once said he was – the Heir to Blair.

If he wins, he will – as the first Tory leader to win an Election in 18 years – have the power to crush all his critics in the Tory Party.

He will be able to say that political correctness, green zealotry, a pro-EU position and a willingness to spend as much as Labour on the NHS have won the day.

He will claim (falsely) that ‘Right-wing’ policies lost the last three Elections.

Those Tory MPs who agree with you and me will be cowed and silenced for good. The power will lie with the A-list smart set, modish, rich metropolitan liberals hungry for office at all costs who would have been (and who in the case of one of the older ones actually was) in New Labour 13 years ago.

And then where will you have to turn for help as the PC, pro-EU bulldozer trundles across our landscape destroying what is good and familiar and replacing it with a country whose inhabi tants increasingly cannot recognise it as their own?

Call-me-Dave must be wide-eyed with shock. It's not easy to fault Hitchen's arguments, save the claim about Cameron's power. With even the best he can hope for being a tiny majority, the Tory party will revert to internecine warfare within a year - as soon as the French come up with sneaky Euro-proposal about fruit. Or Greece. Or Greek fruit.

**Furunculus** · 05-02-2010, 12:14

if we get pr then the progressive vote is knackered, as is the tory party.

the trditional labour working class will vote in fifty plus bnp votes, and a similar number of tory seats will become ukip.

however it is a more of a problem for the left as the progressives vote won't align with the bnp for obvious reasons, whereas the the tories won't have any problems allying with ukip.