The United Kingdom Elections 2010

[Beskar]

The Lib-dems will probably allow the Tories to do it, as long as they aren't involved in it. The thing is, if the Lib-dems ended up in power next election and the Tories were successful, the Lib-dems now has a bargaining chip with Europe to use for basically "free".

[Furunculus]

The Lib-dems will probably allow the Tories to do it, as long as they aren't involved in it. The thing is, if the Lib-dems ended up in power next election and the Tories were successful, the Lib-dems now has a bargaining chip with Europe to use for basically "free".

que?

[Beskar]

que?

Basically, the Tories want a concession from the EU? So let's say they do that.

This means in the future, the Liberal Democrats now have a bargaining chip, aka, this concession, in order to influence future policy in return to handing it back over to the EU.

[Furunculus]

what an awesome policy idea, i'm sure the electorate will be delighted!

that should go down in BOLD in their manifesto alongside all their other stupid ideas like ditching trident and an amnesty for illegal immigrants.

if they want to be taken seriously, they have to act seriously, and that means realising they are their to represent the electorate rather than play my-little-pony fantasy world.

[tibilicus]

Funny the Tories weren't more supportive of the idea of AV earlier. Here's a list of seats denied to the Tories which they would of won had a UKIP candidate not been standing.

Bolton West: Labour 18,329; Conservative 18,235; UKIP 1,901
Derby North: Labour 14,896; Conservative 14,283; UKIP 829
Derbyshire NE: Labour 17,948: Conservative 15,503; UKIP 2,636
Dorset mid & Poole: Labour 21,100; Conservative 20,831; UKIP 2,109
Dudley North: Labour 14,923; Conservative 14,274; UKIP 3,267
Great Grimsby: Labour 10,777: Conservative 10,063: UKIP 2,043
Hampstead & Kilburn: Labour 17,332; Conservative 17,290; UKIP 408
Middlesbrough South: Labour 18,138; Conservative 16,461; UKIP 1,881
Morley (Ed Balls): Labour 18,365; Conservatives 17,264; UKIP 1,506
Newcastle-Under-Lyme: Labour 16,393; Conservatives 14,841; UKIP 3,491
Plymouth Moor View: Labour 15,433; Conservatives 13,845; UKIP 3,188
Solihull: Liberal 23,635; Conservatives 23,460; UKIP 1,200
Somerton & Frome: Liberal 28,793; Conservatives 26,976; UKIP 1,932
Southampton Itchen: Labour 16,326; Conservatives 16,134; UKIP 1,928
St Austell & Newquay: Liberal 20,189; Conservatives 18,877; UKIP 1,757
St Ives: Liberal 19,619; Conservatives 17,900; UKIP 2,560
Telford: Labour 15,977; Conservatives 14,996; UKIP 2,428
Walsall North: Labour 13,385; Conservatives 12,395; UKIP 1,737
Walsall South: Labour 16,211; Conservatives 14,456; UKIP 3,449
Wells: Liberal 24,560; Conservatives 23,760; UKIP 1,711
Wirral South: Labour 16,276; Conservatives 15,745; UKIP 1,274

Big list..

[Beskar]

Funny the Tories weren't more supportive of the idea of AV earlier. Here's a list of seats denied to the Tories which they would of won had a UKIP candidate not been standing.

Exactly.

Being honest, I can see a UKIP-Conservative coalition in the future, if we end up going down the STV/AV route. I could also picture Furunculus voting for UKIP too.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Exactly.

Being honest, I can see a UKIP-Conservative coalition in the future, if we end up going down the STV/AV route. I could also picture Furunculus voting for UKIP too.

This has been noted, AV would effectively wipe out the UKIP vote, and would ensure that whoever was elected had a majority.

[Furunculus]

I could also picture Furunculus voting for UKIP too.

just so we are clear; i do not currently support the UKIP position that we should leave the EU.

this is on the massive proviso that we have a euroskeptic right-wing party in the mainstream that seeks to keep Britain out of a federal Union, and an EU that is willing to accept that position.

if there is no Tory party pushing for a two speed europe, and no ability to extract such a concession from the EU then, yes, I will become a full-blown UKIP supporter.

the EU is not a priceless goal, and if the price is federal union then the price is not worth paying at all.

to me, UKIP is useful leverage to push the mainstream party in the direction i want, nothing more, at present.

[therother]

Funny the Tories weren't more supportive of the idea of AV earlier. Here's a list of seats denied to the Tories which they would of won had a UKIP candidate not been standing.

Two things: a) you are of course assuming that nobody voted Labour or LD as their 2nd choice. Take Bolton West. I'm sure you are right and the vast majority of UKIP voters would vote Conservative second. There are, however, 8,177 LD voters. Recent polls put the split between Labour and Conservative leaning Liberal voters as ~75%/25% Lab/Con nationwide. Assuming that's a fair reflection, this seat would have been solid Labour hold. b) to win a seat with AV, you need a majority of the vote. Conservatives plus the entire UKIP 2nd vote would only give 42.3% of the vote. They would still need to pick up a lot of LD 2nd votes.

This is why the Tories are fearful of AV: they assume that Liberal voters will favour Labour (and Labour voters will favour Liberals in Con/Lib marginals), and so even safe Tory seats could potentially fall. Take Battersea, for instance, where the Tories polled 47.3% of the vote, Labour 35.1% and Liberal Democrat 14.7%, Green 1.1% and UKIP 1%. Even if the Tories gained all the UKIP votes and the Green votes they would still not win the constituency: it would be decided on the alternative choices of the LDs. If they overwhelmingly support the Labour candidate...

[LittleGrizzly]

Maybe my experiences are a little different but welsh speakers have been very rare where I have lived, they are mostly still very proud don't get me wrong, just they tell me "the welsh are better" in english....

One of the potential problems I see with a Lib dem Conservative coalition is that a tactic to scare people off voting for the lib dems is to tell them they will be allowing the conservatives in, ill be honest its one of the main reasons i would vote labour, by making such a deal the lib dems would surely give themselves a black mark in many peoples minds....

How would AV affect the nationalist partys ?