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Thread: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

  1. #1591
    Senior Member Senior Member gaelic cowboy's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    either a lib-lab coalition occurs, which will collapse before 2011, whereupon there will be a tory majority returned, hopefully before lib-lab have had a chance to do too much damage.

    or, the libs return to the tory deal no tainted with exactly the kind of 'old' politics and back-room skullduggery that they accused the tory's of.

    i am a happy man either way.
    If Cameron is thinking this he might need a closer examination of Irish politics rather than continental governments Fianna Fail has been in government in Ireland since 1997.

    In fact they have been in power for most of the last 70yrs

    During this time they have been in coalition each an every time and have had no problem making deals and getting votes through the Dail.

    The secret is that politicians would have no incentive to seek a fresh mandate and so the would cling to each other in power. Once power is achieved they will try to keep it and if things did turn out better in 5yrs then they would get the praise for it.

    Cameron will not gamble that big on a potential government bust up that may never happen.
    Last edited by gaelic cowboy; 05-11-2010 at 15:07.
    They slew him with poison afaid to meet him with the steel
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  2. #1592
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Idaho View Post
    I prefer this analysis:

    Dutch View on Coalitions
    it's lovely if you deem those features desirable. i don't.
    Quote Originally Posted by gaelic cowboy View Post
    If Cameron is thinking this he might need a closer examination of Irish politics rather than continental governments Fianna Fail has been in government in Ireland since 1997.

    In fact they have been in power for most of the last 70yrs

    During this time they have been in coalition each an every time and have had no problem making deals and getting votes through the Dail.

    The secret is that politicians would have no incentive to seek a fresh mandate and so the would cling to each other in power. Once power is achieved they will try to keep it and if things did turn out better in 5yrs then they would get the praise for it.

    Cameron will not gamble that big on a potential government bust up that may never happen.
    the argument runs that any lib-lab coalition will quickly collapse, in which case the electorate would return a Con majority, in other words it is a good election to lose.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 05-11-2010 at 15:09.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  3. #1593
    Senior Member Senior Member gaelic cowboy's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    You make dislike coalition but then so do the majority of politicians however that does not mean they are naturally unstable.
    Lets remember that politicians are basically they kind of people that intellectually, philosophically and psychologically are suited to coalition.
    They slew him with poison afaid to meet him with the steel
    a gallant son of eireann was Owen Roe o'Neill.

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  4. #1594
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Lib-Lab talks over.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  5. #1595
    pardon my klatchian Member al Roumi's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    PR systems, contrary to claims made for them, do not necessarily produce governments that have the support of a majority of electors. If party A gains 30% of the votes and party B 25%, a post-election coalition of A+B does not enjoy the support of 55% of electors. It enjoys the definitive support of no electors, as no elector has been presented with the opportunity to vote for A+B (1).

    Wales provides a good example. The National Assembly for Wales is governed by a Labour/Paid Cymru coalition. No Welsh elector in 2007 was offered the opportunity to vote for Labour + Plaid Cymru – and it is unlikely that many voted Labour on the assumption that a Labour/Plaid Cymru coalition was a likely outcome if no party achieved an overall majority (2).
    Thanks, that's a good article -although i do have 2 comments:

    1) While agreeing that a coalition does not command the direct support of electors in the way that a single party majority government does, the party system itself means there is some "float" or room for difference between the MP a constituency elects and the MP's party. A party is itself a composite of the views of its MPs -as well as that of unelected party members/aides. While a coalition carries the potential for even more divergence from an MPs mandate, the party system could be considered bad enough in itself.

    2) Without knowing the precise conditions of the Welsh NA elections in the example, in the particular case of our recent general election where the prospect of a hung parliament was continuously discussed and debated, I think there are grounds for assuming voters were certainly aware of the likelihood of rule by a coalition government. I think there are grounds for saying that people voted with full knowledge of the prospect of coalition government.

  6. #1596
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    So, sucks to be JAG, looks like.

    After everything, it seems clear that Labour ultimately have nothing to offer the Lib-Dems.

    So, all that Clegg has done with this is damage his image. Even if he did negotiate with both sides in good faith, he has lost credability over this. He will be seen as oppertunistic, and I suspect the Lib-Dems will suffer for that at the next election.

    Looks like Cleggmania was a completely busted flush.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  7. #1597
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by alh_p View Post
    Thanks, that's a good article -although i do have 2 comments:

    2) Without knowing the precise conditions of the Welsh NA elections in the example, in the particular case of our recent general election where the prospect of a hung parliament was continuously discussed and debated, I think there are grounds for assuming voters were certainly aware of the likelihood of rule by a coalition government. I think there are grounds for saying that people voted with full knowledge of the prospect of coalition government.
    The problem with this view, surely though, is that electors can only vote for a single MP. You can't vote for a Hung Parliament, not as a real strategy.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  8. #1598
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    I think I want a Lib-Tory alliance.

    It can limp along for a couple of years. The libs taking the edge off the tories, while ID cards get scrapped. And in 2 years time, when the Tories have stiffed the Libs over PR (which we all know they will), and the country has been laid low by massive government cuts and unemployment (meanwhile the city of London makes bumper profits); the Libs will bail out, we'll have another election and the Tories will be kicked out.
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

  9. #1599
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Idaho View Post
    I think I want a Lib-Tory alliance.

    It can limp along for a couple of years. The libs taking the edge off the tories, while ID cards get scrapped. And in 2 years time, when the Tories have stiffed the Libs over PR (which we all know they will), and the country has been laid low by massive government cuts and unemployment (meanwhile the city of London makes bumper profits); the Libs will bail out, we'll have another election and the Tories will be kicked out.
    Unless the cuts reduce the defecit enough that the economy, and thence spending, pick up.

    Important to point out that, whatever else, both the Tories and Liberals have a much better record on Civil Liberties than Labour. So this Alliance can only be a good thing on that account.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  10. #1600
    pardon my klatchian Member al Roumi's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla View Post
    The problem with this view, surely though, is that electors can only vote for a single MP. You can't vote for a Hung Parliament, not as a real strategy.
    I voted for Lib dem, 1 in the hope that they would form a majority govt (ha), 2 that failing that, they would pursue their manifesto to the best of their capability whatever the outcome -be that as part of a coalition, in opposition or just in parliament. I was not, and am not, averse to the idea of a coalition govt, providing a fair deal is won for the party I supported.

    All this bollox about Lib's negotiations with both sides being undemocratic is in the strictest sense of the word true, but in the practical sense: exactly what you would expect and no different to what any party in their position would do.

  11. #1601
    Senior Member Senior Member gaelic cowboy's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Idaho View Post
    I think I want a Lib-Tory alliance.

    It can limp along for a couple of years. The libs taking the edge off the tories, while ID cards get scrapped. And in 2 years time, when the Tories have stiffed the Libs over PR (which we all know they will), and the country has been laid low by massive government cuts and unemployment (meanwhile the city of London makes bumper profits); the Libs will bail out, we'll have another election and the Tories will be kicked out.
    Possibly I still found it astounding that Tory MPs were demanding to allocate no cabinet seats to the Lib-Dems that kind of thinking is what busts coalitions and loses you support in an election.
    They slew him with poison afaid to meet him with the steel
    a gallant son of eireann was Owen Roe o'Neill.

    Internet is a bad place for info Gaelic Cowboy

  12. #1602
    pardon my klatchian Member al Roumi's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla View Post
    Unless the cuts reduce the defecit enough that the economy, and thence spending, pick up.
    I know there hasn't been much discussion at all about how and when the deficit will be "managed" or "cut", do you have any idea how savage the cuts in public spending would have to be to redress the situation in less than 5 years?

    If you think Thatcher is stigmatised now, it's bound to be worse for whoever enacts these cuts -especially if that's the only way they will reduce the deficit...

  13. #1603
    Senior Member Senior Member gaelic cowboy's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Well I reckon the Afghan war accounts for a lot of spending there is a saving straight away
    They slew him with poison afaid to meet him with the steel
    a gallant son of eireann was Owen Roe o'Neill.

    Internet is a bad place for info Gaelic Cowboy

  14. #1604
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by alh_p View Post
    All this bollox about Lib's negotiations with both sides being undemocratic is in the strictest sense of the word true, but in the practical sense: exactly what you would expect and no different to what any party in their position would do.
    This would be true, were it not for the fact that a Lib-Lab coalition was never going to happen. So basically, Clegg made a show of negotiating with Labour was just grubby politics. It was an attempt to try to strong-arm the Conservatives, and get a concession on electoral reform.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  15. #1605
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by alh_p View Post
    I know there hasn't been much discussion at all about how and when the deficit will be "managed" or "cut", do you have any idea how savage the cuts in public spending would have to be to redress the situation in less than 5 years?

    If you think Thatcher is stigmatised now, it's bound to be worse for whoever enacts these cuts -especially if that's the only way they will reduce the deficit...
    Actually, I do have an idea, and I work in education.

    Realistically, tax rises at this time will depress growth in the private sector, which currently accounts for less that 50% of GDP. Tax rises will result in a further gowth of the Public Sector, which is only a short-term solution and potentially creates mores problems in a year or two.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  16. #1606
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by gaelic cowboy View Post
    Possibly I still found it astounding that Tory MPs were demanding to allocate no cabinet seats to the Lib-Dems that kind of thinking is what busts coalitions and loses you support in an election.
    lol, sounds like exactly the same kind of bargaining as the lib-dems attempted by courting Labour.

    i agree with PVC that regardless of the necessity of the labour talks, it has made clegg look underhanded, not a good thing for a leader whose reputation depends on his 'new' politics image.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  17. #1607
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla View Post
    both the Tories and Liberals have a much better record on Civil Liberties than Labour.
    You what! Public Order Act? Police and Criminal Evidence Act? Removal of right to silence?
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

  18. #1608
    Senior Member Senior Member gaelic cowboy's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    move along nothing to see here new Tory Lib government by end of week
    They slew him with poison afaid to meet him with the steel
    a gallant son of eireann was Owen Roe o'Neill.

    Internet is a bad place for info Gaelic Cowboy

  19. #1609
    pardon my klatchian Member al Roumi's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    lol, sounds like exactly the same kind of bargaining as the lib-dems attempted by courting Labour.

    i agree with PVC that regardless of the necessity of the labour talks, it has made clegg look underhanded, not a good thing for a leader whose reputation depends on his 'new' politics image.
    meh. He's been an MEP for years... He's not new... And AFAIK his idea on "new politics" was a renewal and increase in cross party comisions, rather than glorying in the singlemindedness afforded by massive majorities. Speaking to all sides is very lib dem, if you ask me...

  20. #1610
    pardon my klatchian Member al Roumi's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla View Post
    Actually, I do have an idea, and I work in education.
    They let you near children!!!!?

  21. #1611
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by alh_p View Post
    meh. He's been an MEP for years... He's not new... And AFAIK his idea on "new politics" was a renewal and increase in cross party comisions, rather than glorying in the singlemindedness afforded by massive majorities.

    Speaking to all sides is very lib dem, if you ask me...
    he might be, along with his other fifteen activists and three thousand voters, the real opportunity of the surge vanished once people actually took a serious look at their policies.

    is that a polite way of saying inconsistent and opportunistic?
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  22. #1612
    pardon my klatchian Member al Roumi's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    is that a polite way of saying inconsistent and opportunistic?
    LOL, collegiate was the word I had in mind

  23. #1613
    Part-Time Polemic Senior Member ICantSpellDawg's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    My money is on a Tory/LD coalition, proportional representation within the next 2 years and devolution into an English parliament after that. Any takers?
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  24. #1614
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    most it will be is a referendum on PR, no certainty that it will be accepted.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  25. #1615
    Ultimate Member tibilicus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Well it looks like the election coverage may be at an end soon. In that case I think a roll call is due, for those spinsters who spun their party and tried to persuade us that there polices were best, despite how awful they may have been. And let's not forgot those politicos, who's indecisive conclusions meant that even now, we still have no idea what's going on.


    Last edited by tibilicus; 05-11-2010 at 17:56.


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  26. #1616
    L'Etranger Senior Member Banquo's Ghost's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Brown is at the Palace and resigning as Prime Minister. Her Majesty will be inviting David Cameron to form the next government.
    "If there is a sin against life, it consists not so much in despairing as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this one."
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  27. #1617
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by TuffStuffMcGruff View Post
    My money is on a Tory/LD coalition, proportional representation within the next 2 years and devolution into an English parliament after that. Any takers?
    Yes to the first - the latter two? Not a chance.
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

  28. #1618
    Senior Member Senior Member gaelic cowboy's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Did anyone see Adam Boulton lose it on sky what a eejit
    They slew him with poison afaid to meet him with the steel
    a gallant son of eireann was Owen Roe o'Neill.

    Internet is a bad place for info Gaelic Cowboy

  29. #1619
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Just watched Brown's resignation speech. Fair play to the bloke.
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

  30. #1620
    Enlightened Despot Member Vladimir's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Wow. I'm four pages behind.

    Does anyone think the Liberal Democrats are the real winners in this election? How can a party in the minority loose seats yet have so much power?


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