Iran on Fire

[Lemur]

Most of this was going down over the Backroom holy day break, so here's a little catch-me-up on what's going down in Iran:

Moussavi anticipates his own death.

Bassejis being surrounded and overwhelmed by Greens.

Khameni's jet is on standby to whisk him away.

Warning: explicit content.

Bassejis running over protesters with a car. This sort of thing is not helping the cause of the ruling mullahs.

Good analysis:

At the beginning of the current period of opposition, which started soon after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's controversial reelection, quiet periods of seeming normalcy occurred between what were less frequent demonstrations.

Judging from the events of Ashura, however, the protests now seem to carry the potential to turn into a full-scale civil disobedience campaign, not unlike the first intifada the Palestinians initiated against Israel in 1987. Such an uprising will mean continuous periods of strikes and civil disobedience, as well as more confrontations between members of the public and security forces.

The main factor contributing to the new status quo is the unrelenting policies of the Supreme Leader, which have pitted his philosophy of the Islamic Republic against longstanding Islamic institutions.

This is a battle that Khamenei will find extremely difficult to win. In fact, if developments continue in their current form, they can result in significant changes to the structure of his regime, or more drastically, lead to its total demise.

His decision to allow the Basij to mount an attack on mourners at Ayatollah Montazeri's funeral was one factor leading to the spread of opposition in rural areas, faster and more efficiently than any campaign the reformist camp could have orchestrated. Yes, members of the opposition tried to take advantage of the mayhem, but also many genuine mourners had come to pay homage to a Grand Ayatollah. To Ayatollah Khamenei's forces, they were all the same. To allow attacks against the residents of a holy city where the seeds of the 1979 revolution were planted was not just dead wrong from a religious perspective, it was politically counterproductive as well.

To make matters worse, the very next day, the Supreme Leader's forces attacked mourners attending a ceremony for Montazeri at Isfahan's Seyyed mosque, where inside members of the public were beaten. The Basijis also tried to assault Isfahan's former Friday prayers leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Jalaleddin Taheri, who had arranged the ceremony. However, his supporters protected him.

If the Shah had committed such an affront, one could have attributed it to his brute dictatorial secularism. But for the Supreme Leader of an Islamic Republic to order violence against Islamic institutions means turning against the very establishment that formed the foundation -- or the very DNA -- of the current regime.

[Furunculus]

best of luck to the iranian people.

[rory_20_uk]

Insha'allah

[Fragony]

This might just be bigger than the wall if it works. All I can say is good luck.

[Subotan]

It took a year to overthrow the Shah. Hopefully the Iranians can knock down another dictator in under that.

[cegorach]

It is never easy, but the regime seems ripe to fall.

Of course the thugs of the Revolutionary Guards and their rising, economic influence is the major problem, but hopefully the anti-governmental activists are stubborn enough and numerous enough to win sooner rather than later.

I won't say brave enough because it is already a known fact.

Good luck brothers and sisters!

[Major Robert Dump]

But I thought we invaded Iran and toppled Saddam Hussein and the Taliban? WTF?

[spmetla]

Well at least it's clear that Iran will either have some strong reforms or a new government in the next year or so. The regime blew their chance at reforms within the system in their handling of the post election mess.

I just hope this will mean an end to theocracy and authoritative government in Iran. A stable 'friendler' Iran would be such a big boost to security throughout the region it's a shame that the best thing for the US to do is stand and the sidelines and watch.

[rory_20_uk]

...the best thing for the US to do is stand and the sidelines and watch.

Almost always the case for any country in any similar situation: give the populace a means of communicating that can not easily be intercepted and then do nothing. Difficult to daemonise a foe when it's obvious you're first having to make one.