Departed Dethy Mafia II [Concluded]

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Hmmm interesting.

I've never played it that way before. That seems even more game-breaking than the setup I've played.

It seems like this setup isn't game breaking though.

If you lynch twice, base probability of town win is 53%. If you do investigations and clear one person, or if two people are contradicting each other somehow, the base percentage for town win is 50%. If you don't do either, it's 33%.

Since there are only 7 results, 2 of them fake, it doesn't seem probable that anything conclusive will be found.

[Captain Blackadder]

Day 3

It is the final day of the police investigation and once again Elerby comes forth and asks the cops to say who they think the rat is. Finally after three days the police present have an aswer for them "Captain Queenan sir" Staff Sargent Dingham and Trooper Brown say. Really says Elerby I always considered Queenian to be the loyalist of you all but if that is what you think that that is what it shall be take him away. With that the officers begin to drag Queenan away as they get out of sight. Queenan begins to beg Trooper Brown, "its Dingham for gods sack the rat is Dingham you've got to believe me." Dignham gets more and more upset with this turn of events and finally pulls his gun and shoots Queenan.



Capt Queenan (Saskai) is dead

Brown turns to Dingham and yells "what did you do that for?" Dingham turns and says it is simple for in actual fact I am the rat. Brown gasps "what how could I have known?"

"Simple," replies Dingham " The Staff Sergeant rank dosn't exist in the state police but now you have to die along with the last piece of evidence againest Costello also please dont call me Dingham the name is Sullivan, Colin Sullivan" He turns the pistol on Trooper Brown and kills him with a single shoot to the head.

With all the evidence destroyed the case againest Costello is finished but there is one more thing to go. Sullivan returns to Elerby and says. Capt it is crazy out there Brown was the mole Queenan was begging me to see that but I didn't then Brown turned the gun on Queenan and tried to kill me. But I got to him first. Now before all the rest of this happens I would like to say one thing. I wish to recommend that Billy Costigan, Barrigan and Captain Queenan are all given the Gold Medal of Valor." Elerby nods and says "That is a fine idea, Dingham you are a fine police officer and one that I feel would make an excellent new leader of the anti-gang task force congratulations.


Double A (Dingham/Sullivan) is Victorious


Mafia Victory

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Epic game CB. One of my all time favorites

[johnhughthom]

Well played Double A.

Thanks for the game Cpt Blackadder.

[Captain Blackadder]

Roles and Alignment

Johnhughthom

Billy Costigan (Cop)




You are Billy Costigan the undercover operative in the Irish Mob now that you mission is complete you were in hiding out in the woods until the trial was to start. However because you are the only one who has seen the mole even from a distance you have being brought in to find the mole.

Abilities

You may investigate one person each night phase.

Mod Note Naive


Secura

Officer Brown (Cop)




You are Officer Brown of the Boston Police. You are the man who whilst not always doing things the best way gets them done nonetheless. You are the backbone of the Police and you will find the mole soon enough

Abilities

You may investigate one person each night phase.

Mod Note Insane

Double A

Colin Sullivan (Rat)



You are Colin Sullivan the rat in the Police Department you are to kill off all these other fools in the force and allow Frank Costello to get away scot free. Now you realise that other people in the force may have figured out it was you which is why you are going to wear a disguise of the most trustworthy member of the force Dingham whose role is below

Abilities
You may kill one person each night phase

Staff Sargeant Dingam (Cop)



You are Staff Sargeant Dingam of the State Police. A cool handed customer you are highly trusted by the police and luckily for them this trust is warranted. You are the ultimate in loyal cop you want to catch this rat so much it almost hurts. You are the one who goes beyond the call of Duty to get your man

Abilities

You may investigate one person each night phase

Saskai

Captain Queenan (Cop)[/B]



You are Captain Queenan head of the department into finding the mole so it is your head on the block if the mole manages to destroy that evidence. Find him before it is too late.

Abilities

You may investigate one person each night phase.

Mod Note Sane

Methos

Barrigan (Cop)



You are Barrigan the character that nobody really knows when you turned up at the end most people said who is that. Your answer would be a damn fine cop. You are going to be the one who finds the rat before the others because that is the kind of cop you are.

Abilities

You may investigate one person each night phase.

Mod Note Paranoid

[Renata]

I don't know if it's possible even now to determine the normal cops identity.

Who do you think was mafia out of the last three?

I'll post the analysis later today; I think it's on the other computer.

I don't know who I'd have gone with if forced to choose. I liked your argument against Secura on day one, though; I thought it was very strong, and her responses not reassuring. That you dropped it made me more suspicious of you.

Congrats, Double A.

[Beskar]

Unfortunately Sasaki played a game, and kept trying to manulipate the investigation results so if he were the Mafia, he could have got anyway with it. It was obvious that Methos was going to die last night and Sasaki suggested a layout where Methos would die, it would make it to look like Secura was scummy. Also, John and Methos all suspected Sasaki, so it would have made sense for Sasaki to kill them.

What makes it even more weird, that Sasaki didn't reveal himself. He if revealed himself, he could have pushed Secura onto Double A and won the game.

I also disagree with Renata, the argument was very divertionary and only created the illusion of susipicion on which Sasaki would later rely on to try to lynch Secura and the Mafia just took advantage of that. Also, you only ever lynch in a Dethy when you are sure in a Dethy, not to give the Mafia a free ride, so Sasaki not dropping it would have painted a big red "scum" sticker on him.

To make it even worse, Sasaki said he was the Matt Damon character.

Though for my original analysis, I had it between Double A and Methos during Day 2.

[Secura]

I was on the brink of voting for Double A at first, because I felt his arguments under pressure were a little weak, though having been put through it firsthand in early rounds, I sympathised a little. However, all the scummy signs were there...

Sasaki, on the other hand, had been on my case for the entire game and had essentially ignored every attempt I made to defend myself; I'm sorry, but when I know I'm innocent and someone is that hellbent on me being the scum, I'm going to suspect something. As I said, I only told the truth the entire way through the game... it seemed it was only the reasoning of two dead players that absolved me of any culpability.

Obviously, you have already seen my post voting for Sasaki, but there was a second post saved in my inbox that was partly written in the event I voted Double A instead. It basically said that I felt Sasaki was a deserved winner for the way in which he had played the game, and that my vote for AA would mean that no matter the outcome, Sasaki would've won. If he'd been town, fantastic, if not, well he was a good mafia anyway...

...but I scrapped this at the last second. I was trying to finish my Double A argument, watch the rest of United-Milan (my father left Old Trafford ten mins early to beat traffic and text me saying 'watch utd, txt bk scores'), finish my prawn jalfrezi before it went completely cold (it was already luke-warm -_-') and had Beskar repeatedly sending game invites for R.U.S.E over Steam.

Beskar had gotten impatient, my dad was phoning from the car because I wasn't texting back... I grew annoyed and had grown tired of the stress of the game itself, so I simply copy-pasted the Sasaki vote (which I'd completed already) and posted it.

So yes, it was literally that close. I was about a paragraph away from voting Double A, but being pestered by family and friends led me to ditch the argument and go for the one already written. Sasaki had convinced me at the end that he wasn't the scum; I simply wasn't able to follow through with it.

[johnhughthom]

my father left Old Trafford ten mins early to beat traffic

Prawn sandwich alert.

[Beskar]

Iand had Beskar repeatedly sending game invites for R.U.S.E over Steam...Beskar had gotten impatient..,

For some one who said they were joining now and came 30 minutes-hour later after coming up with every excuse in existence, I sort of was impatient.

[Secura]

Prawn sandwich alert.

Mmmm, prawns.

For some one who said they were joining now and came 30 minutes-hour later after coming up with every excuse in existence, I sort of was impatient.

Yeah, yeah...

I forgot to congratulate Double A on winning; you played it well, managing to stay under the radar and leave Sasaki and I to 'duke it out', so to speak. The pair of us basically did your work for you, really. You were close to being voted for though, but were saved by Steam, peshwari naans and Darren Fletcher. :P

Sorry, Sasaki... but thanks for a really good game. Shame we made each other out as scum, really. >.<

[johnhughthom]

I guess the obvious next step is to do it all over again, this time as the gangsters trying to find the police mole...

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I'll post the analysis later today; I think it's on the other computer.

I don't know who I'd have gone with if forced to choose. I liked your argument against Secura on day one, though; I thought it was very strong, and her responses not reassuring. That you dropped it made me more suspicious of you.

Congrats, Double A.

It was strong. But townies can act very scummy, and it kind of hit me after being away from the argument for a few hours that secura was innocent and Double A was scum.

Sasaki, on the other hand, had been on my case for the entire game and had essentially ignored every attempt I made to defend myself; I'm sorry, but when I know I'm innocent and someone is that hellbent on me being the scum, I'm going to suspect something. As I said, I only told the truth the entire way through the game... it seemed it was only the reasoning of two dead players that absolved me of any culpability.

I don't think the reasoning of two dead players had anything to do with it. You did do many things in the game which are usually done by mafia:

1) claiming your role early to try and prove your innocence (mafia like to do this when they have a fakeclaim)
2) Assuring us that you didn't mind being investigated
3) Proposing "pro-town" strategies and acting like those who opposed were mafia
4) Implying through subtext that you thought I was town, and then essentially OMGUS voting me...

Like it or not, those are all things mafia frequently do. You have to watch for that. The only reason I decided to unvote you is that you didn't "feel" like mafia, and Double A really did.

Unfortunately Sasaki played a game, and kept trying to manulipate the investigation results so if he were the Mafia, he could have got anyway with it. It was obvious that Methos was going to die last night and Sasaki suggested a layout where Methos would die, it would make it to look like Secura was scummy. Also, John and Methos all suspected Sasaki, so it would have made sense for Sasaki to kill them.

It made perfect sense for Double A to kill them to. The layouts and investigations were meaningless, as I said several times. I didn't try and manipulate them at all

What makes it even more weird, that Sasaki didn't reveal himself. He if revealed himself, he could have pushed Secura onto Double A and won the game.

Reveal what? My possible mod given fake claim?

I also disagree with Renata, the argument was very divertionary and only created the illusion of susipicion on which Sasaki would later rely on to try to lynch Secura and the Mafia just took advantage of that. Also, you only ever lynch in a Dethy when you are sure in a Dethy, not to give the Mafia a free ride, so Sasaki not dropping it would have painted a big red "scum" sticker on him.

This doesn't make any sense either. Double A revealed himself when he tried to take advantage of it. If I had left my vote on Secura she would have been lynched.

To make it even worse, Sasaki said he was the Matt Damon character.

******************

Backing off of scummy people when you have a bunch of "sunk cost" invested in the case is always hard though. I'm pleased that I managed it.

[Secura]

1) claiming your role early to try and prove your innocence (mafia like to do this when they have a fakeclaim)

Mafia or not, I wouldn't do this in a normal game; I've never played Dethy or a game with only five players. There were so few of us, and I was so underfire, I revealed my role because I felt there was no real choice.

2) Assuring us that you didn't mind being investigated

Which, of course, I didn't. The structure of your arguments against me left little room for movement; you seemed 100% convinced that I was the mafia, without any apparant chance it could be JHT, Methos or Double A. I don't really think that's the right way to go about playing the game, and if you had followed through with your lynch on Day One... well then the game would have been lost earlier.

While I knew that multiple people investigating me wasn't going to be a winning strategy for town, I didn't really have a choice but suggest it. That's all there was to it.

3) Proposing "pro-town" strategies and acting like those who opposed were mafia

Well, they were pro-town strategies; tactics that I had read that might give us a chance of winning. Looking back at the previous game now, I notice that Pizza did this and wasn't jumped on for doing so. And he was town also.

You were the only person who opposed, and it wasn't that fact which made me believe that you were mafia, but the extent to which you attacked that was suspicious. I'm sorry, but I think any mafia that would post as much as I did, so soon and in such a small game, is a flipping fool.

As we now know, the game was won by Double A essentially keeping a low profile throughout and only really coming out of the woodwork to vote or defend himself. You mentioned Schrödinger's Cat as your method of eliminating him as a suspect... if you'd allowed others to post themselves rather than jumping on what I said from the get-go, perhaps you might have noticed more suspect behaviour.

4) Implying through subtext that you thought I was town, and then essentially OMGUS voting me...

I implied you were town, though you had to read between the lines to find it, but this was merely a technique to gauge your response; I had been weary of you from the get-go. As Beskar text me earlier "you were arguing it was Sasaki all along and I thought it was Methos or Double A". My vote on the final day was justified in how you had been behaving throughout the game, and several players I spoke to via PM agreed with me.

In trying to defend myself against your early arguments, I made myself out to be more scummy, but in turn you were making yourself appear scummy in what I assume were attempts to make me crack and admit who I was or whatever the purpose of all that pressure was. The suggestion of "Secura investigates Methos, Methos investigates Secura" was one of the things that stood out not just to me, but at least two others I spoke to as well.

The town losing the game cannot be attributed solely to me, surely? :/

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Mafia or not, I wouldn't do this in a normal game; I've never played Dethy or a game with only five players. There were so few of us, and I was so underfire, I revealed my role because I felt there was no real choice.

Which, of course, I didn't. The structure of your arguments against me left little room for movement; you seemed 100% convinced that I was the mafia, without any apparant chance it could be JHT, Methos or Double A. I don't really think that's the right way to go about playing the game, and if you had followed through with your lynch on Day One... well then the game would have been lost earlier.

While I knew that multiple people investigating me wasn't going to be a winning strategy for town, I didn't really have a choice but suggest it. That's all there was to it.

WIFOM doesn't work well as a defense though. If you try and use it to defend yourself, people who think you are suspicious will always take the mafia side of the wifom. I know this from many many past experiences, lol. You didn't exactly believe what I said about "I wouldn't have switched my vote to double A if I was mafia" did you?

All those kind of arguments don't work well, and are most often used by mafia when the don't have any other defense. I think mine at the end was strong enough to put out there, it's possible I shouldn't have mentioned it and hoped someone else brought it up (that always gives it more weight).

Well, they were pro-town strategies; tactics that I had read that might give us a chance of winning. Looking back at the previous game now, I notice that Pizza did this and wasn't jumped on for doing so. And he was town also.

But if mafia were going to pretend to be pro town, they would copy a strategy without analyzing it. It's hard to call someone mafia for proposing a non optimal strategy though, so it isn't a strong argument. But mafia often enter the game with a "let's see, how can I convince them I'm town" strategy. Not all mafia lurk. I remember in another mini mafia we caught one of the scum when he tried to act like he was very pro town but his suggestions were actually flawed.

You were the only person who opposed, and it wasn't that fact which made me believe that you were mafia, but the extent to which you attacked that was suspicious. I'm sorry, but I think any mafia that would post as much as I did, so soon and in such a small game, is a flipping fool.

But see, that's a "mafia wouldn't do this" argument again. I certainly posted a bunch didn't I? And you suspected me. Pkev as my scumpartner in taormina used the "I wouldn't post this much as new mafia" argument successfully.

As we now know, the game was won by Double A essentially keeping a low profile throughout and only really coming out of the woodwork to vote or defend himself. You mentioned Schrödinger's Cat as your method of eliminating him as a suspect... if you'd allowed others to post themselves rather than jumping on what I said from the get-go, perhaps you might have noticed more suspect behaviour.

I didn't eliminate him as a suspect...that was the point. He was either guilty or innocent, we wouldn't know until he started posting more. But most people (townies included) only have a handful of posts in these mini games. So you pick a gut feel and push it. You say yourself you became more scummy as you defended yourself.

I implied you were town, though you had to read between the lines to find it, but this was merely a technique to gauge your response; I had been weary of you from the get-go. As Beskar text me earlier "you were arguing it was Sasaki all along and I thought it was Methos or Double A". My vote on the final day was justified in how you had been behaving throughout the game, and several players I spoke to via PM agreed with me.

I don't understand the technique :/

In trying to defend myself against your early arguments, I made myself out to be more scummy, but in turn you were making yourself appear scummy in what I assume were attempts to make me crack and admit who I was or whatever the purpose of all that pressure was. The suggestion of "Secura investigates Methos, Methos investigates Secura" was one of the things that stood out not just to me, but at least two others I spoke to as well.

But if you think that was scummy, then you see why saying "I don't mind everyone investigating me" is scummy.

The town losing the game cannot be attributed solely to me, surely? :/

Of course not, I didn't manage to convince you.

But that wasn't the point of this post-game discussion. I just wanted to explain why I found you so suspicious. At least you know I play like this as town...it really works the best in these kinds of games. You don't get mafia lynched without latching on and attacking them. Mafia will always put up as reasonable a defense as possible.

[Secura]

WIFOM doesn't work well as a defense though. If you try and use it to defend yourself, people who think you are suspicious will always take the mafia side of the wifom. I know this from many many past experiences, lol. You didn't exactly believe what I said about "I wouldn't have switched my vote to double A if I was mafia" did you?

All those kind of arguments don't work well, and are most often used by mafia when the don't have any other defense.

I should have known this based upon my own experiences as both town and mafia; it's the sort of arguments I remember making as a complete newbie to the game; I lapsed right back into it under pressure, which sucks.

But if mafia were going to pretend to be pro town, they would copy a strategy without analyzing it. It's hard to call someone mafia for proposing a non optimal strategy though, so it isn't a strong argument. But mafia often enter the game with a "let's see, how can I convince them I'm town" strategy. Not all mafia lurk. I remember in another mini mafia we caught one of the scum when he tried to act like he was very pro town but his suggestions were actually flawed.

Well, I did analyse them privately, but I agree that perhaps not doing so publicly could draw attention to what I was saying; from previous places where I played, mafia were more prone to lurking then making blatant stand-out-in-the-crowd posts like I did, so I'm not really familiar with mafia leaping out and trying to be pro-town like that.

I didn't eliminate him as a suspect...that was the point. He was either guilty or innocent, we wouldn't know until he started posting more. But most people (townies included) only have a handful of posts in these mini games.

That's the thing... I think people should have actively posted more. Day One and Two were pretty quiet and discussion only really kicked off when we reached the final phase. There was never any real pressure for the quieter people (in this case, Methos and Double A) to come out and post... perhaps I should've thrown a vote out there to put some pressure on, but by that point I think it was firmly on me anyway. :P

So you pick a gut feel and push it. You say yourself you became more scummy as you defended yourself.

Yes, exactly. I felt that my first posts were actually fairly innocent; it was my attempts to defend the small holes you found that led to me appearing increasingly scummy. It's been a while since I've had to react to that much pressure piled upon me, and it was arguably harder to deal with than previous occasions because this time, I knew I was a townie, and I knew that if I was lynched, the town's chances of winning were going to decrease.

I don't understand the technique :/

Granted, it sounds better in my head, and it wasn't entirely successful. It's difficult to explain, and probably not worth the time.

But if you think that was scummy, then you see why saying "I don't mind everyone investigating me" is scummy.

Well, what stood out about myself and Methos investigating each other was that I knew that Methos (or Double A) was going to be killed; it would have worked out amazingly well for the mafia if Methos had been killed in those circumstances; my result on him would have been discredited (he's dead, coulda made it up) and his result on me couldn't have been revealed. I could have argued "why would I kill him and make myself more suspicious?", but based upon how much my previous arguments had been torn apart, I'd have been fighting a losing battle. :P

Of course not, I didn't manage to convince you.

Well, in the end, you actually did... I wasn't far off posting a Double A vote.

[Methos]

I was hoping DoubleA would post his reasonings for killing the people he did.

[Secura]

I think it was always going to be a case of leaving myself and Sasaki alive to the end; with the pair of us tearing strips off one another, killing us wouldn't have helped him stay under the radar, so to speak.

If both Sasaki and I were dead, it would have meant he would have to post more to avoid the suspicion of you and JHT. :3

[Double A]

Secura, Sasaki, you both played extremly well, and I still don't know how I beat you.

Which reminds me. The game's over, you can stop arguing now

I was hoping DoubleA would post his reasonings for killing the people he did.

N1 was mostly a random pick. Actually, I think I had a reason, but I forgot it.

I picked you so 1) it would make Secura look more guilty, as she could possibly kill her investigator to take less heat off her, and 2) so Sasaki and she would duke it out while I acted like they were both scummy (which you both were acting like) and vote for one of them.

I probably should have first said that Sasaki was innocent, making it seem like I was insane and Secura was sane, which would also take potential heat off me. Sasaki in turn would look very guilty. But instead I just went for the "I'm paranoid and my results don't matter, carry on with the deathmatch" route.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

How were you feeling when I switched to you and secura decided to unvote? Did you think you had it in the bag before then?

Inquiring minds want to know :p

[Double A]

Yeah, which is why I took so long to reply. Like Secura, I tried to go to sleep, and then I couldn't.

Freakin insomnia.

[Secura]

Hahaha, thanks to Thermal I found out how to read post counts:

Secura: 54
Sasaki: 52
JHT: 32
Methos: 23
Double A: 19

Lurker victory! :P

[Double A]

Strange... normally I have at least 3rd with post count. I subconsciously lurked...