StarWars: Return of the Sith [Concluded]

OK, one thing for the record: Diamondeye is town. Reason being -- Chaotix confirms that the roleblock ability is Grandmaster Level. That means the Jedi GrandMaster and (presumably) the Sith Lord, no one else. DE was blocked by the Sith Lord; he's not the Sith Lord. And by his own statement of non-recruitability, which I doubt he would have lied about and which the Sith would have to be a little crazy to test anyway, he is not likely to be a recruit. So he's Town.

Why's he still alive, given his two ostensibly dangerous abilities? *Because he hasn't been dangerous.*

Most of Diamondeye's actions have been predictable, but not all. In particular, his actions from the night before last. Cent couldn't have know he would not be investigated or roleblocked that night. Even Subotan, with his suspicious investigation result, couldn't have known he would not be the roleblock target instead. Yet nothing was done about Diamondeye on that night. Who *could* know he wasn't going to be targeted? Psychonaut.

As for last night, well Centurion's been about the scummiest thing going, but that doesn't make him scum. Some of his comments from yesterday strike me as very lost-townie, though few seem to agree. If he is town, his scummy behavior provides a perfect rationale for a scapegoat roleblocking of Diamondeye. So does Subotan's. Can't have the investigator clearing two top suspects with mere days left in the game, right? People might start re-examining previous assumptions.

Now Psychonaut. Forget the write-ups for a moment. We do NOT know what Sigurd has allowed and has not allowed to the Sith Lord, and it's foolish to make assumptions. Look at behavior.

On Beskar's last day alive, Psychonaut provided a list of names to Beskar, ostensibly obtained through some sort of investigation ability. Upon questioning it was determined to be a mixture of people known to be in the game based on write-ups, good guesses, and (again obstensibly) a few names gleaned from actual investigation. Psychonaut sent me a PM summarizing all of his results, which were largely not useful. However, a few players were named as likely-Sith-susceptible (or likely not); and one was named as having been sleeping on a particular night. Notably, my own name, which Niklas knew, was missing from this original accounting. However, there were still at least three names which Psychonaut could not have guessed, and which were accurate.

The question is whether Psychonaut could have been told of these names. They are:
Sifo Dyas (Jolt/split)
Atris (Kagemusha)
Corran Horn (Joooray)

Did these people reveal to Psycho? Did anyone else tell Psycho who these people were?

And of course:
Tahiri Veila (me)
I didn't tell Psychonaut who I was. I did tell Niklas. And Psycho left me out of his first accounting of his investigation results.

The point I keep trying to make is that:
1. The Sith Lord probably is an investigator.
2. Psycho has claimed knowledge that as far as I'm aware he can't have come up with unless he was an investigator.
3. Psycho denies ever having been an investigator.

Does his behavior support the idea that he is the Sith Lord? IMO it does. He stopped providing investigation results at that time, without explanation, and did not respond by PM. This makes no sense for town even if I were to accept the ruse he claims to have been running with Chaotix -- why stop *then*? Why not feed more false results through Chaotix in order to try to manipulate the Sith Lord? The Sith Lord's *actual* activities have been near-optimal.

And if there was a reason to stop then, why not 'fess up? Why make claims such as those made for Sifo Dyas (Jolt/split) and Lar Le'Ung (Greyblades) (that they were sleeping on a given night) that could have resulted in disaster if either of those players had been mafia? Beskar never investigated either of them. Chaotix does not appear to have. Psychonaut *himself* wrote out a long accusation of Greyblades on the very same day he reported the Lar Le-Ung result, so it wasn't people whose claims he knew and thought they were innocent, either.

If you guys don't kill him and Psychonaut does turn out to be the Sith Lord, I get "I told you so" credit for about the next year and a half.

(Of course if I'm wrong that's just par for the course.)

But if he is not an investigator, how did he learn those roles? Psycho, tell me. I promise I'll stop bugging you (for now) if you can provide this information.

Oh I forgot that wall of text is evidence now. I can't wait for the lynch I'm so excited

atheotes and splitpersonality, if you are town you will vote for centurion1 today.

The remaining mafia are centurion1 and (recruited) ATPG.

We cannot rely on my night abilities to work, so we need the town to hurry up about this.

You have roughly seven hours to change your vote.

Also, Chaotix, if you'd please vote Cent1 aswell.

I'd actually vote ATPG as the Sith Lord before I'd vote him as recruited, or before I'd vote Cent at all. Either way, I suck.

There's a major flaw with your case Renata. If you accept that DE has the GM roleblock ability, then you must accept that the GM roleblock was used on Psychonaut twice and the GM Drain once. By that point, DE had been exposed as Qui-Gon and Psychonaut had been working with him. Psychonaut knew he was going to be subjected to those abilities at that time, yet no actions were taken against DE, neither attacks nor blocks.

So, in order for your theory to be true, the following also needs to be true:

1) Psychonaut knew that the GM Drain would not expose him as Sith, even though we now know that it did expose Niklas as Sith.
2) The GM roleblock has to be useless at stopping night actions, and Psychonaut has to have known that even though Chaotix and DE don't.

Neither of those make any sense.

I agree Psycho needs to explain where he got the names from, but I don't see him as the Sith Lord at all.

Originally Posted by Renata

Possible action possibilities for a Sith Lord:

-- evade investigation (we know this is possible)
-- evade roleblock (almost has to be an option if Psycho is mafia -- TinCow if you haven't been recuited please consider the balance issues and the likelihood of this)
-- investigate

For obvious reasons, none of these would be visible in a write-up.

-- kill
-- recruit

I think three actions per night is very likely for the Sith Lord (starting from the point where the Jedi Masters and Grandmasters gained the ability to use two) for balance reasons. I'm unclear on whether a single Sith would be allowed to perform two kills, though I see no reason to rule it out on principle. I don't know whether or not there has been a recruit. But my main issue with Psycho is that apparent lie -- can you at least not push for more votes on Cent until this has been settled or discussed? I don't like you dismissing it just because you can't see the mechanics that would let it be possible: surely a possible lie must trump trying to outguess the GM?

to add on, here is what i think about the multiple abilities:

After the death of Niklas, the sith Lord got to use abilities - as a power balance.
when he recruited an apprentice, the Jedi masters get to use an additional ability.

Now i wish i had the time to go and look at the write-ups and timings to assess the above theory. Now that work has gotten busy i am back to catch up mode

Originally Posted by atheotes

to add on, here is what i think about the multiple abilities:

After the death of Niklas, the sith Lord got to use abilities - as a power balance.
when he recruited an apprentice, the Jedi masters get to use an additional ability.

Now i wish i had the time to go and look at the write-ups and timings to assess the above theory. Now that work has gotten busy i am back to catch up mode

This is wrong. The upgrade to powers was given out after N8. Niklas didn't get lynched until D10. It occurred while both starting Sith were still alive.

Originally Posted by TinCow

This is wrong. The upgrade to powers was given out after N8. Niklas didn't get lynched until D10. It occurred while both starting Sith were still alive.

there goes what i thought was "useful contribution"
thanks for correcting me

Originally Posted by TinCow

I agree Psycho needs to explain where he got the names from, but I don't see him as the Sith Lord at all.

I got half of them from trawling through Wookiepedia for countless hours, the other half from the write-ups. Then I linked them with speculation and guess work, and laced them with falsehoods. As I said to Chaotix any truths that may have arisen are purely coincidental, ESP to use ATPG's term.

Edit - It's not too difficult to make significant guess-work by taking Wookiepedia as a guideline.

Originally Posted by TinCow

There's a major flaw with your case Renata. If you accept that DE has the GM roleblock ability, then you must accept that the GM roleblock was used on Psychonaut twice and the GM Drain once. By that point, DE had been exposed as Qui-Gon and Psychonaut had been working with him. Psychonaut knew he was going to be subjected to those abilities at that time, yet no actions were taken against DE, neither attacks nor blocks.

My speculation is that the Sith Lord has abilities to evade or fool both investigations and blocks; however, it takes an active ability to do so. (Akin to the stealth ability.) This would explain, for example, why on the night after Niklas was lynched, there was only one kill/recruit visible in the write-up. Psycho knew he was bait for one more investigation or roleblock; hence had to guard against both. By the next night, he was cleared of suspicion, so was free to both kill and recruit (or kill twice; as I've said I'm not sure when or if there has been a successful recruitment), as well as to use one additional ability if he wished.

Turn that night after Niklas' lynch on its head and try to explain by anyone other than Psychonaut being the Sith Lord. The Sith Lord *must* have at least two independent actions; anything else would be ridiculously unbalanced. He's seen in the write-up failing to recruit Diana Abnoba. Where's the other action?

Originally Posted by Psychonaut

I got half of them from trawling through Wookiepedia for countless hours, the other half from the write-ups. Then I linked them with speculation and guess work, and laced them with falsehoods. As I said to Chaotix any truths that may have arisen are purely coincidental, ESP to use ATPG's term.

You guessed half of them without ever getting a single one wrong?

Outside of the people making cases - here is what i see(it could be biased due to my own opinions):

Psychonaut - He could be cleared based on the blocks done by DE when we still had 2 kills. But there are some loose ends he needs to tie. if he and Chaotix could help us with those then we can clear him and move on.

Centurion1 - Scummiest going around. I for one, dont believe his gaining the breath control ability again. He stood to gain the most if DE had been roleblocked. Only mitigating factor is it is the most obvious. We should definitely lynch him if we can clear Psycho.

Atpg - He is making a lot of assumptions in theories that is a mixture of information in thread and speculation (inside information perhaps ). He needs to be investigated or blocked.

Tincow - Seemingly cleared due to the roleblock and attack by the sith. But that still leaves him susceptible for conversion (which is true for everyone alive barring DE). So not a priority for the day or tonight

Rest of the people - I dont have a strong opinion either way.

Okay Psychonaut, now say the timing (of you telling the ruse to Chaotix) and the motivations for everything. You say you suspected that Niklas was Beskar's leak and you wanted to entrap him. What did you envision happening, best case? You gave Beskar only a list of names. The more detailed information you gave to me didn't come until several days later, and you could not know I would give it to Niklas directly. As far as I'm aware you never told it to anyone else.

The bolded parts are what I most want a response to.

Originally Posted by Renata

My speculation is that the Sith Lord has abilities to evade or fool both investigations and blocks; however, it takes an active ability to do so. (Akin to the stealth ability.) This would explain, for example, why on the night after Niklas was lynched, there was only one kill/recruit visible in the write-up. Psycho knew he was bait for one more investigation or roleblock; hence had to guard against both. By the next night, he was cleared of suspicion, so was free to both kill and recruit (or kill twice; as I've said I'm not sure when or if there has been a successful recruitment), as well as to use one additional ability if he wished.

But that doesn't explain how he evaded the first roleblock, when there were 2 kills in the write-up. The second block with the single dropped kills has some merit, but it's the first block that convinces me.

Originally Posted by TinCow

You guessed half of them without ever getting a single one wrong?

That too.

Lar Le'Ung, Atris, Sifo Dyas, Tahiri Veila and Corran Horn -- all from Wookiepedia with no false positives? To be honest I was expecting you to say you trolled through Sigurd's photobucket account.

Originally Posted by Renata

That too.

Lar Le'Ung, Atris, Sifo Dyas, Tahiri Veila and Corran Horn -- all from Wookiepedia with no false positives? To be honest I was expecting you to say you trolled through Sigurd's photobucket account.

Renata, this is the post I'm working off of. Can you tell us the date and time that you received each of those PMs?

Originally Posted by TinCow

But that doesn't explain how he evaded the first roleblock, when there were 2 kills in the write-up. The second block with the single dropped kills has some merit, but it's the first block that convinces me.

Niklas was still alive then and knew he would be drained/investigated. There were hints in the day thread both of a town roleblocker and that Psychonaut might be the target. So Psycho evade roleblock/kill; Niklas kill; or Psycho evade roleblock/kill twice; Niklas do nothing; or Psycho act innocent and Niklas kill twice. Not entirely sure what the options there are, but I don't think it can be ruled out unless you're confident that the Sith Lord wouldn't have three actions at that point AND that the Sith Lord couldn't evade a roleblock by using up an action AND that a single Sith (either one) couldn't perform both kills.

Originally Posted by TinCow

Renata, this is the post I'm working off of. Can you tell us the date and time that you received each of those PMs?

Yes, though I'm at the library right at the moment waiting for the kiddo to get out of pre-school. I'll get them in an hour or so.

Originally Posted by TinCow

You guessed half of them without ever getting a single one wrong?

I only ever stated about 3-4 that weren't in the write-ups at any given stage. My method was to think like Sigurd would have when he designed the game. Go to the page of a known role and then open all the links to Jedi on that page, then close all the pages with a) no profile image and b) very little background story. This left me with very few. This on top of the ones that I gathered from what people claimed in thread or hints in posts. It was really quite simple to guess role names.

Originally Posted by Psychonaut

I only ever stated about 3-4 that weren't in the write-ups at any given stage. My method was to think like Sigurd would have when he designed the game. Go to the page of a known role and then open all the links to Jedi on that page, then close all the pages with a) no profile image and b) very little background story. This left me with very few. This on top of the ones that I gathered from what people claimed in thread or hints in posts. It was really quite simple to guess role names.

These are the ones you listed that weren't in the write-ups:
Luke Skywalker
Sifo Dyas
Atris
Corran Horn
Micah Giiett

Luke is obvious, so you're fine there. Atris... maybe. Obvious with the KOTOR games taken into account, but that's stretching it. Corran Horn I suppose you can get a pass on since he's got a monster length Bio.

However, nailing Sifo Dyas and Micah Giiett doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Why would you have picked them over other roles? For instance, Sify Dyas is apparently strongest linked and most commonly mentioned with Dooku. It makes sense that you'd look at Dooku early on because of Beskar's reveal, but if you read Dooku's bio, Sifo doesn't even get mentioned until several sections down. Before him, the page includes names of a whole bunch of other people, including Oppo Rancisis who is specifically named as a Jedi Master and has about as perfect and complete a biography as you could hope for. It makes no sense that you would have browsed the Dooku page and discarded Oppo Rancisis, but kept Sifo Dyas.

I will give you the benefit of the doubt and refrain from switching my vote for a very short period of time. If you want that period of time to be extended, you had best explain EXACTLY how and why you picked all five of those names.

You know what, I'm not going to give you the benefit of the doubt. This finally makes one last bit of evidence I have make sense. When Sigurd accidentally posted my name in the thread instead of Belth's I PMed him about it asking if it was correct. He fixed it, but also replied:

Originally Posted by Sigurd

Originally Posted by TinCow

In the latest write-up, you named me as Belth. Is that intentional? I haven't seen you use someone's role name with their handle before.

Sorry, my mistake. There shouldn't have been a connection between your character name and .org name.

I shall upgrade you with force protect to compensate.
I doubt the "reveal" have exposed you any less than if I hadn't mistakenly put your name in the thread.
I have said too much.

Sigurd

I have bolded the important bit. The way that reads, the mafia already knew who I was, even though I had never revealed my name to ANYONE before that night. That means knowledge via an investigate power. Your perfect accuracy on the role names seems like too much of a coincidence given this information.

Unvote; Vote: Psychonaut

Explain yourself, in great detail.

Yes. Psycho is responding selectively. He's a better lynch than cent.

Originally Posted by TinCow

I will give you the benefit of the doubt and refrain from switching my vote for a very short period of time. If you want that period of time to be extended, you had best explain EXACTLY how and why you picked all five of those names.

With all honesty I double checked with the URLs. Like you did earlier to find Mas Amedda. I did it with a few, then felt naughty and stopped.

And in response to post above. I never knew who you were until autolycus PMed me a few days ago.

And the way I read this:

Originally Posted by Sigurd

I doubt the "reveal" have exposed you any less than if I hadn't mistakenly put your name in the thread.

Is that a) a Sith would know you are town anyway and b) they wouldn't know your level regardless, so nothing has changed with the slip up.

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Yes. Psycho is responding selectively. He's a better lynch than cent.

Because it's 3am and I'm doing an assignment/following the British election. And no I am not a better lynch than Cent.

nevermind

Originally Posted by Psychonaut

With all honesty I double checked with the URLs. Like you did earlier to find Mas Amedda. I did it with a few, then felt naughty and stopped.

Hmm... this checks out. I tested, and all 5 of those pictures do indeed show up with the simple substitute method I used. That makes perfect sense.

Unvote; Vote: Centurion1

This is why lying is bad, even if you're a townie.

Originally Posted by TinCow

Hmm... this checks out. I tested, and all 5 of those pictures do indeed show up with the simple substitute method I used. That makes perfect sense.

Unvote; Vote: Centurion1

This is why lying is bad, even if you're a townie.

I am not convinced. What is to say he did not get the idea from Renata's post?

What are the implications if we lynch Centurion today, given Diamondeye's abilities and Psychonaut's claimed protective ability?

Clearly if Centurion dies, we've gotten a Sith. Yippee and all that. But if he doesn't. Who's left alive?

Also, Psycho, you might want to answer my questions as long as you're confessing to unhelpful lies. I bolded them even; I'm helpful like that.

Originally Posted by atheotes

I am not convinced. What is to say he did not get the idea from Renata's post?

The names thing was the only thing I saw off about Psychonaut. He has explained the names situation in a way that is entirely plausible and consistent with everything we know about this game. So, we're now back at the point we were at before, where Psycho has a plausible story that makes sense, while Centurion1 remains extremely scummy with no exculpatory evidence.

My method of mafia hunting is to look for contradictions and changes in behavior which don't make sense. I do not currently see any of that in Psycho, while I see it all over the place with Cent1 and ATPG.