Daggers in the Night [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

EDIT: Also, only one kill? Successful protection or atheotes = mafia? Would be good to know I think.

Option 3: Inactive player. Splitpersonality. Legitimately inactive only lately. Otherwise was active just not posting.

Option 4: WIFOM to throw us off the scent. We're focusing on it.

[Renata]

(about split) If I'm counting right he should be wogged by the end of the day, or tomorrow at the latest. We can probably afford to wait that one out.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If I'm counting right he should be wogged by the end of the day, or tomorrow at the latest. We can probably afford to wait that one out.

I agree. It's a shame too, we need every vote.

[Renata]

Yeah, I know you think he's a townie.

[Diamondeye]

Yeah, I know you think he's a townie.

I think there's no reason to vote for split unless he shows up to avoid the WOG. Innocent or not, the WOG will handle him. We should focus on others.

[Diana Abnoba]

Just got results from last night. The person I had protected, was not attacked last night, nor did I use a Vig kill last night. So it looks like we finally got 1, Atheotes was mafia!! So now think who could be on a team with him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Just got results from last night. The person I had protected, was not attacked last night, nor did I use a Vig kill last night. So it looks like we finally got 1, Atheotes was mafia!! So now think who could be on a team with him.

Precisely my point: if they dropped their kills by 1, we could waste an entire round chasing an untamed ornithoid without cause. And every lynch counts a lot at this late stage. Sacrifice 1 kill to waste one of our few remaining lynches. Is a brilliant plan.

Not saying it's likely, just a real possibility.

[Renata]

Edit (@ Diana) Okay.

@ Pizza: This whole thing needs some thought. I did suggest that finding out Atheotes was mafia should direct us to one (or heck, maybe two) of several players (those in the two-vote category a couple days back). That makes the WIFOM idea worth considering, because that list is long enough that *if* all of them are townies, pursuing that lead could sink us. However, it should also be considered that in order to make that work, the mafia would have to voluntarily give up a kill every night from now to the end of the game. At a minimum (if Atheotes is not mafia and they decide after today the whole thing is pointless and go back to two tonight), they have given up a kill. That is not a trivial thing for mafia to do, and it would likely have to come with some serious gain attached to be worth it.

We need to determine who might stand to gain, and by how much, to figure out how seriously to take the idea of WIFOM last night.

[Askthepizzaguy]

However, it should also be considered that in order to make that work, the mafia would have to voluntarily give up a kill every night from now to the end of the game.

Why?

They could easily drop the ruse tonight. Messing up one of our few remaining lynches with a near-100% success rate is worth a temporary drop in kills. Deed accomplished, they resume killing at full power, and we become panicky and confused.

[TinCow]

Just got results from last night. The person I had protected, was not attacked last night, nor did I use a Vig kill last night. So it looks like we finally got 1, Atheotes was mafia!! So now think who could be on a team with him.

While that is the most likely scenario, don't lock yourself into that reasoning too heavily. It could also be an intentional kill drop or a failure to submit night orders. If you've got a case against someone and an atheotes-connection works on top of that, that's great... but it's tunnel vision to focus exclusively on partners for atheotes for voting purposes. The longer we go without 2 night kills, the more likely atheotes was mafia and the stronger those connections become... but for now there's a good deal of WIFOM in it, so it should only be used as supporting evidence.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

heh, "only as supporting evidence", compared to what...