Mafia IX: Triumph of the Mafia [Concluded]

[Renata]

That's the day that ended up like this:

shlin28: 3 (ATPG, Blackadder, shlin)
Methos: 2 (Psychonaut, Ibn)
Thermal Mercury: 2 (woad, Joooray)
Subotan: 2 (Sasaki, TinCow)
ATPG: 1 (Thermal)
TinCow: 1 (Secura)
Ibn-Khaldun: 1 (Renata)
Sasaki Kojiro: 1 (Methos)
Reenk Roink: 1 (Subotan)
Renata: 1 (Beskar)*

Abstained: 1 (Beefy)
Didn't vote: 4 (Drizzt, Kage, pever, Reenk)

Subotan was the last effort at a bandwagon. He wound up with two votes to shlin's 3, and one of those was a self-vote. Four non-voters. One of shlin's voters (ATPG) highly likely to change his vote based on previous behavior.

Sure, Subotan is mafia.

It's probably too late, but I don't believe this bandwagon is on solid ground. It feels ad hoc, cooked up on flimsy premises to distract from what might have been the default lynch otherwise.

unvote, vote: Sasaki Kojiro

[Sasaki Kojiro]

You clearly didn't read it. Did you see my initial comments about the voting result from that day? I brought up the same point you brought up.

I suppose I'll probably have to quote it for you

Day 5
shlin28: 3 (ATPG, Blackadder, shlin)
Methos: 2 (Psychonaut, Ibn)
Thermal Mercury: 2 (woad, Joooray)
Subotan: 2 (Sasaki, TinCow)

This looks like another interesting day to me and worth a reread. It seems like people were ok with thermal and subotan being at the mercy of shlin's self vote.

The wagon on shlin was pretty strong for a while though and looked like it would continue. So I don't think what I said about those guys with 2 votes looking good holds up.

And you know, saying my case on subo is "ad hoc" to save thermal is kind of silly, since the same excuse you are applying to subo applies to him (2 votes).

[Renata]

Where please. I missed the better part of three days over the weekend.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

[Renata]

Not to save Thermal, to offer more insurance between yourself and the lynch.

Freakin' edits:

Your rationalization about the shlin wagon's presumed strength is extremely weak tea. The two votes on Subotan came a good long while before the end of the day, and after shlin's self-vote, but nothing moved after that.

[Renata]

Which is just to say: it completely undermines your point about Subotan's suspicious level of attention to the game as prompted by this current bandwagon. At that previous point in the game, he didn't even bother to make himself safe, nor did anyone do it for him.

It's a lousy bandwagon, Sasaki.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

It was like 2 and a half hours, and subo was online.

His partner could have been lynched, his partner could have been psychonaut (asleep in australia) etc. Read the day over yourself, unless you do a tally manually it looks like shlin is the definite lynch. The tally posted by someone has him at 5 votes.

Renata: engaging in brinksmanship when the vote is close is a mafia tactic. They want you to think what you're thinking now, and not "he voted to save himself!". For examlpe, in the godfather three, beefy either self voted or voted his partner (can't remember which) putting him at 4 votes to the next wagons 5. Risky (it may have even backfired, I forget) but it is something mafia do.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Voting closed.

Please bear with me as I am currently operating on two hours of sleep.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Sunset.

It had been a long and trying day for Subotan, not to mention the rest of the week-plus. He had been dodging mafia assaults and villager attempts to get himself lynched, and, it seemed like he was finally going to settle in and buckle down; be a vital contributor to the town's final push to save themselves. Of course, that was right when the hammer fell.

The town's wisest scholars and most trusted voices had named him as the mafioso, building the best case they could against him. The votes, in turn, followed, and Subotan was left gibbering, doing his best not to simply repeat Methos's argument of the day before. He realized that this wouldn't do anything to dissuade the town from lynching him, though, and as the day wore on instead tried a different tactic.

Poring through the Frontroom Library, Subotan returned at sunset carrying a mountain of books. Several of them looked quite ancient, dating all the way back to 2006. This method was unorthodox for sure, but he figured it was his best shot of staying alive and avoiding whatever sick and twisted and diabolical lynch mechanism the Chief of Police had dreamed up for him.

"Okay, Subotan," Lemur said, "The jig is up. It's time."

"No," said Subotan, "Your jig is up, Chief, or should I say, Mister Former Mafioso!" Everybody gasped in shock. "Is it true?" someone cried out.

"Oh, it's true," replied Subotan, taking out one of the thinner, older-looking tones. "It's all right here in the Frontroom Chronicles, if you know where to look for it. Looks like Lemur tried to disguise his past by putting it in the absolute last place anybody would look for it - a library - but he didn't hide it well enough! Behold, ladies and gentlemen of the Frontroom, the truth shall set you free! Evidence that, back in 2006, Lemur was an integral part of a very similar operation to what's going on now! He was allegedly lynched, but obviously he survived and he's been worming his way to the inside ever since! Well, my fine-feathered friend, now you're exposed! What do you have to say for yourself?"

Lemur sighed. "I was wondering when this would come up. Subotan, you idiot, you haven't read the fully story. Yes, I was part of a mafia operation in 2006. But that was just a one-time thing! I got out as soon as I was lynched and I later served the Frontroom with distinction in later Mafia assaults!"

"I don't remember this at all," said one particularly wizened villager.

"Pipe down back there," Lemur said. "It's all moot anyway. The main point is, right now, I'm the Chief of Police! And, as a symbol of my office... I have a gun!" He suddenly whipped out a bazooka and fired the projectile high into the twilight sky, causing everyone to scream and start running in chaos. Within seconds, the Frontroom Square was entirely empty, save for two people: Subotan and Lemur.

Reloading his bazooka, Lemur stared icily at Subotan, who suddenly realized how exposed he actually was. "There will be no dissent in the Lemur regime," he said, aiming and firing the bazooka once more.

Day 8 tally:
Subotan: 5 (Sasaki, ATPG, Psychonaut, Thermal, woad)
Sasaki Kojiro: 3 (Ibn, Kage, Renata)
Thermal Mercury: 1 (Subotan)
Askthepizzaguy: 1 (Reenk)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Still alive: (9)
Sasaki Kojiro
Askthepizzaguy
Kagemusha
Renata
Thermal Mercury
Ibn-Khaldun
woad&fangs
Psychonaut
Reenk Roink

Wrath of God:
Cultured Drizzt fan

Killed:
Crazed Rabbit
Andres
atheotes
Double A
Centurion1
Csargo
Winston Hughes
johnhughthom
spL1tp3r50naL1ty
White_eyes:D
Secura
Beskar
Joooray
pevergreen
Beefy187
Captain Blackadder

Executed:
Diamondeye
Chaotix
Yaseikhaan
Sigurd
shlin28
TinCow
Methos
Subotan

Orders are due at 13:00 US Eastern tomorrow.

[Renata]

It was like 2 and a half hours, and subo was online.

His partner could have been lynched, his partner could have been psychonaut (asleep in australia) etc. Read the day over yourself, unless you do a tally manually it looks like shlin is the definite lynch. The tally posted by someone has him at 5 votes.

Renata: engaging in brinksmanship when the vote is close is a mafia tactic. They want you to think what you're thinking now, and not "he voted to save himself!". For examlpe, in the godfather three, beefy either self voted or voted his partner (can't remember which) putting him at 4 votes to the next wagons 5. Risky (it may have even backfired, I forget) but it is something mafia do.

You're trying too hard. This isn't Godfather 3, which presumably had death reveals and/ or other clues available for the town; it's Mafia IX, which has nothing of the sort. Let me get the timing exactly clear, since I have a couple of minutes with no distractions.
3/28 1:12 by my clock. 3 votes on Shlin including the self-vote (or are you really trying to convince me that the mafia wouldn't double-check?) You vote Subotan (first vote).
3/28 10:33. TinCow follows. Subotan's now avoiding being in a four-way tie by the slim thread of one self-vote.
3/28 11:57 and 12:30 and 12:49. Subotan posts, not seeming freaked out, not arguing hard, not trying to change the situation, quite cool really. His vote stays on Reenk (first vote); he doesn't switch to Shlin (sitting at three votes including the self-vote), or to TM or Ibn (both at 2). I will buy, completely, that he didn't realize the danger he was in. What I don't buy is that a mafia in his position would not. Anyone at all could have forced him into a tie with just one vote change. Anyone pointing out Shlin's self-vote and the actual vote totals could easily have gotten two more votes for one of the alternate bandwagons. Shlin or CB or ATPG could have hung him single-handed, if they'd been so inclined/been around. As dangerous as it would be to add a vote to one of the vote-leaders at that point, it would be all but suicidal to change his vote after someone else had already switched theirs. The bottom line, though, is that if Subotan is mafia here, he's being COLD with the brinksmanship.

Phase ends at 13:00.

Now compare that to today. Part of your rationale for driving the bandwagon on Subotan was that his response was suspicious -- he's not being cold at all. How can you make those two data points mesh? I don't think you can. I don't think he's mafia, and I'm very suspicious that you twisted the data to get the outcome you wanted.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

You are suggesting that Subotan would appear nervous under pressure. I don't think he would, that's not my impression of him at all. I have the opposite impression.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Godfather III had no reveals or clues.

[Renata]

Irrelevent. I'm not making any judgment on his level of nervousness at all. The point is that you are, implicitly, but that it doesn't hold up to inspection when compared to the earlier situation:

This one from Subotan:

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2463294

And this response a few posts later from you:

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2463381

"lots of energy to defend himself"; "analysis appears only when accused" -- but he WAS accused once previously, in a rather dangerous situation to boot, and this behavior that you find so suggestive did not materialize. That's why I'm calling your accusation ad hoc -- it's like you're making it up as you go along.

So Subotan will defend himself vigorously, sometimes. Other times, not so much. Same applies to all of us. It's not a reliable scum tell, but you're happy enough to go with it at a very late stage of the game (and don't get me started on the people who followed you). Fancy it up with a lot of words, obscure the details, but the facts boil down to:

-- Subotan did NOT always defend himself disproportionately to his actual contribution to this game. He did it this time, but not the first.
-- When he failed to do so, the first time there was a bandwagon against him, it was quite possibly because he didn't perceive himself to be in danger. But this is a mistake much more likely to have been made by a townie. Any halfway competent mafia with votes on him would surely have checked the vote count. He gave no indication whatsoever of having done so.

You actually did go back and check your facts, yet you still stuck with the accusation despite the doubt that the vote situation should have cast on it.

[Renata]

Godfather III had no reveals or clues.

Thank you, retracted on any implication of "mafia will NEVER do that", but the incentive still works the other way.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

"lots of energy to defend himself"; "analysis appears only when accused" -- but he WAS accused once previously, in a rather dangerous situation to boot, and this behavior that you find so suggestive did not materialize. That's why I'm calling your accusation ad hoc -- it's like you're making it up as you go along.

Renata, my initial case was that I thought his defense of my previous accusation was out of line with the effort he put into his voting--and it WAS.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'd note that the subject of contention, Subotan, is dead.

If Sasaki is suspicious, then you'll be voting him next round, Renata, I'm sure. But there's no need to telegraph to the mafia what we're doing next round.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

On the contrary...-..-..----.-.-...-.-...--.---.----.-.-.

[Askthepizzaguy]

That's disgusting.

[Renata]

LOL @ ATPG -- you think the mafia could possibly miss it?

Hey mafia, I'm not suspicious of Sasaki anymore. Better get rid of him lest he lead the town to victory!

(Think that'll work?)

Anyway, I'm trying to get *myself* night killed here. You don't do that by letting the other guy get the last word. Whatever shall I do?

[Askthepizzaguy]

I promise I will not kill you tonight, Renata. Sasaki and I will actually be killing Ibn-Khaldun and Kagemusha because they aren't suspicious.

[Renata]

No clearly you should kill yourself. The ultimate WIFOM; a real feather in your cap.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I suppose that has never been done before.

Therefore, I shall do it. Tonight, I Askthepizzaguy, shall kill myself in the name of the ultimate WIFOM.


(please make it seem as though I actually did that, too....)

[Subotan]

Another day passes, and the mafiosi are still at large. Since when has defending yourself been evidence that you're guilty? Sasaki has been reading way too much into the quantity of what I had written rather than the content. If I still had a vote, I would instantly in the next phase lay it on Thermal Mercury, who has got a far too easy ride for someone who has slipped up and contradicted himself far more times than we should be happy with.

[Kagemusha]

I think Sasaki should be lynched next day. I am getting very bad vibes out of him looking back the thread.

[Thermal]

So rather than a lynch a semi-lurker

Semi lurker? Wow you really have been paying attention to this game, I must admit, I have barely said a word, compared to you, I only have 50 more posts than you too, how about that....

who has been acting suspiciously all game and only posting fluff analysis

I wander where you got the word fluff from. Well I'm a big fluffy bundle of fun so thats all good.

you would rather lynch a townie who has provided analysis when asked of him and been a player of value when able?

....As well as posted random and contradictory posts (of which you accuse me of doing as well ) you also don't respond to my last analysis of your claims against me so not always provided analysis when asked, eh?

Also quite offended that your saying I've not at any point been a player of value, basically .

It's going to be a sad state of affairs if people are going to start being lynched for want of a desktop rather than any serious reason.

Which rounded off your mafia like urges to stay alive....

--------

As you say though, you really have been a player of value where as I, humble me have contributed nothing.

This contribution from you was brilliant and very helpful to town specifically.

'How could

Inky Pinky Ponky, Daddy bought a donkey. Donkey died, daddy cried. Inky Pinky Ponky!

Vote:Sigurd '

You really do given non scummy explanations for your votes too, which are far more concised than my own!

Vote:PEVERGREEN

Oooh, a delayed OMGUS...

Vote:Reenk Roink

I also like how you encourage other players to vote just as productively as you

This scattergun approach isn't productive for us at all, as we end up accusing townies who then have to explain why your random vote is stupid

Before getting a large amount of votes the largest post I saw your type was about 3 lines long (and that was rare) so you certainly are contributing more.

Your General Topics:

Princess Bride hate, Tincow's pancakes, Pevergreen & Reenk

After looking through the entire thread I honestly see almost no on topic posts, so yet again you really were a player of value.

Using voting data is useful and unuseful according to you too.


Rest in Peace

[Secura]

Pevergreen

Oh no you di-int!

That's a lynchable offense in itself... :P

[Askthepizzaguy]

I've been part of the lynch or the tie vote during every round in the game, except the one against Yaseikhaan. Even after that, and even after extensive WIFOM from myself, and even after your little pizza hints in the writeups, I am still alive. You will kill me tonight, or I will kill you, it is that simple. Do we understand each other?

[Andres]

Hmmmm, we're nearing the end phase. I hope I can find the time to do some reading so that I can lead the town to its' doom with my usually idiotic and dead wrong analysises to victory by rooting out the two mafiosi still alive and thinking they're set for a total mafia victory.

Start trembling, you cowardly mafiosi who killed me, ME!, your resident INFALLIBLE GOD, on N1.

You are doomed!

I suggest you save yourself the embarassement and send your suicide orders to GH right now.



[You may be infallible, but I can still edit your posts. It's good to be king - GH]

[GeneralHankerchief]

Day breaks in the Frontroom. All is quiet.

A lone cow made her way down the peaceful village's main street. There would be no more singlehanded door-to-door murders that took far too much time and effort. No, this time, the mad cow would have a true feast indeed. She would be going straight to the source: The Chief of Police's office.

For his part, Lemur was having another relatively relaxing day, keeping himself busy by reading Better Homes and Gardens until the inevitable news of the murders came. Therefore, he was surprised to hear a knock at the door, though it was certainly not the sharp, crisp knocks he had come to expect as Chief of Police.

He opened the door to find himself staring face to face with a very hungry mad cow. Bessie, upon spotting her prey, mooed. Lemur, quickly realizing exactly what was going on, attempted to slam the door in Bessie's face, but the cow was too quick, powering her way into the office and sending Lemur scrambling around the room.

The two parties, man and cow, ran around the room in circles for a couple of minutes before Lemur finally displayed signs of intelligence that had allowed humans to evolve and become higher than cows many millennia ago: He jumped on top of his desk, and, in a fluid motion, grabbed his office chair and used it as a shield, much like the lion tamers of old used it as separation.

"Yah! Back, you devil!" Lemur shouted, brandishing the chair at the cow. Bessie mooed her disappointment, unsuccessfully trying the topple the desk over a few times before she tried a different strategy. Standing up on her hind hooves (defying the laws of physics in doing so, but Lemur was in no mood to think about the implications of this act at the moment), Bessie fired a concentrated blast of milk from her udder straight at the Chief of Police's face.

The blast took Lemur completely by surprise and blew him back, sending him tumbling off the desk. Bessie ran around the desk, closing in for the kill, but Lemur was able to crawl away, getting up on his feet and running out of the door in time. The office had been completely trashed, but it was a death trap waiting to happen and Lemur had gotten out of there alive.

If there was present in the town to be at Frontroom Square that day, they would have witnessed their Chief of Police bursting out of the door at a full sprint, followed a couple of seconds later by a cow galloping at high speed and steadily gaining ground on Lemur. Yes, Lemur had gotten out of the office, but now he had a *lot* of open ground to cover and Bessie was closing fast.

"This can't end here this can't end here this can't end here" he kept repeating to himself, focusing every possible iota of his energy into getting to the one place that might just save him: The execution platform. As his legs slowly started turning to stone, Lemur kept sprinting, hearing Bessie's bell clanging madly behind him, her incessant hoofbeats, her breathing in and out. With maybe a half a stride to spare, Lemur finally made it, diving under a hole in the platform.

Generally protected by the platform now, Lemur was allowed to pause and catch his breath. However, the cow would not give up so easily. She started snapping at Lemur's legs, the platform, anything she could get her mouth on. Lemur could feel the cow's hot, moist breath pass over his face as she continued her tireless efforts.

Eventually, Bessie backed up a couple of steps and executed a full-on charge, obliterating the execution platform and leaving Lemur horribly exposed. Bessie mooed in triumph as she prepared to feast on her victory.

Lemur, however, wasn't done yet. He simply rolled out of the way a couple of times. And as soon as the cow, in pursuit, occupied the same piece of land he had been hiding on before he had to move, Lemur pressed a secret button on his standard-issue utility belt.

The rumbling sound took place in a split second, just enough time for Bessie to look down at where she was standing in confusion. Then, the ground opened and a small rocket exploded upwards, carrying Bessie - now holding on for dear life - as it climbed higher and higher into the sky and out of view.

Lemur, now standing up to watch it all, brushed himself off and shook his head, trying to contemplate it all. Just as he turned away to head back into his office, he heard an odd tinkling sound from behind him. Turning around, he saw that a small piece of metal had impacted the ground, a piece that hadn't been there before. He bent down to pick up and saw that there were some words that had been engraved in the metal.

They read:

"Bessie"

"If found please return to Subotan and Chaotix"

"REWARD"

Lemur exhaled, the moment hitting him. Finally, after eight hellish days, it was over. Somehow, the town had managed to save itself. It was over. They were saved. Lemur cracked a smile, and then began to laugh. Hysterically. Almost immediately in retrospect, the situation was a lot more hilarious than it had been when all of their lives were at stake.

He would go back to the office and clean up. He would take the time to personally call the nine survivors of the attack and inform them that they had nothing else to fear. But first, the Frontroom Chief of Police, the Keeper of the Kingdom of Peace and Love, would enjoy a drink. After all, he had earned it.

Maybe this job wouldn't be so bad, after all.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here is the final status list. Congratulations to those who survived.

Survived: (9)
Sasaki Kojiro
Askthepizzaguy
Kagemusha
Renata
Thermal Mercury
Ibn-Khaldun
woad&fangs
Psychonaut
Reenk Roink

Wrath of God:
Cultured Drizzt fan

Killed:
Crazed Rabbit
Andres
atheotes
Double A
Centurion1
Csargo
Winston Hughes
johnhughthom
spL1tp3r50naL1ty
White_eyes:D
Secura
Beskar
Joooray
pevergreen
Beefy187
Captain Blackadder

Executed:
Diamondeye
Chaotix
Yaseikhaan
Sigurd
shlin28
TinCow
Methos
Subotan

Result:

TOWNSPEOPLE VICTORY!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, Mafia IX is over. A big "thanks for playing!" to everybody who joined, especially our two gallant mafiosi: Chaotix and Subotan! I've already spoken to them in private but I'll say it again here: Winning this game as a mafioso is hard and they are to be commended for their noble efforts.

However, of course, it was not enough, so with that I offer a big congratulations and applause to the victorious townies!

Commentary and my usual essay will be up soon; I'm aiming for the weekend.

[TinCow]

Thanks for the great game, GH.