Mafia IX: Triumph of the Mafia [Concluded]

I'm at a loss of who to vote for.

Haven't seen beefy post in a while...

So vote him, Thermal.

vote: beefy187

I don't necessarily think beefy should go down, but it would be better if we avoided bandwagons (now) and took a position on who should be lynched. That's the only way we will get any information. Thanks, Thermal.

No problems

When the game is over, I want the reasoning for the kill of me...it doesn't make any sense to me...

People who vote themselves into a tie are probably innocent.

Leaving the most suspicious people alive allows you to blend in. Case in point.

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Leaving the most suspicious people alive allows you to blend in. Case in point.

Yes, quite simply, its good townies that will be struck off first in theory, were just the ones that can't shut up and manage to constantly rank up votes...

Let's get a little wagon on woad and fangs

Originally Posted by Thermal Mercury

Yes, quite simply, its good townies that will be struck off first in theory, were just the ones that can't shut up and manage to constantly rank up votes...

They killed me and I think I'm one of those people who never shut the fudge up... :P

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Let's get a little wagon on woad and fangs

He picked on me a few rounds ago but what would your reason be?

@ Secura

Well people just seem to enjoy killing you, rather tragically, god knows that they do with your body.

Originally Posted by Thermal Mercury

Well people just seem to enjoy killing you, rather tragically, god knows that they do with your body.

I was hoping that it was simply some late "Welcome to the Org!" party from the Gameroom, but it might end up being a trend that stays. ¬_¬

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

People who vote themselves into a tie are probably innocent.

If I was mafia (it'll happen again some day) I would have done the exact same thing.

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Let's get a little wagon on woad and fangs

I've fallen off of the wagon, Sasaki.

Originally Posted by Thermal Mercury

@ Secura

Well people just seem to enjoy killing you, rather tragically, god knows that they do with your body.

Secure it?

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Secure it?

I'm a sad panda now.

blerg, I desperately need more time to reread everyone's posts. I've basically been reading through the new posts in a day, then voting and disappearing until the next day phase. I admit this isn't the most helpful thing to the town. vote: subotan because he has been really quiet... I think.

Sasaki, would you mind saying why you find me scummy?

Your name jumped out at me when I looked at the list of the living. It's a proven technique.

You are quite scummy though.

I've never liked people who vote for themselves, so Vote: ATPG.

I would look very carfully to Beefy and Psychonaut they were both hanging in the thread, while psycho made a "wrong" vote and beefy didnt even vote. So vote: beefy

Kills are now up in the summary thread and post #951 of this thread.

Sleepy time for GH.

Originally Posted by Methos

I've never liked people who vote for themselves, so Vote: ATPG.

Sure, because two innocent people didn't already vote for themselves this game.

Nice OMGUS by the way. Feeling a little silly you didn't kill me last night?

Originally Posted by Secura

I was hoping that it was simply some late "Welcome to the Org!" party from the Gameroom, but it might end up being a trend that stays. ¬_¬

I don't think so it mafia happens in patterns for ages I was never mafia then suddenly I was mafia in around 5 games close in a row it just happens

Vote woad and fangs

Keep forgeting to vote in this game so I will put this vote on then go back and look to see what i can discern.

As William Riker would say, in ST:TNG The Best of Both Worlds Part I, "it's time for the long pants."

There's only 12 hours remaining and I wanted to keep my reasoning private in case the mafia eliminates a suspect for me, like they did with Joooray. I'm going "all-in" on Methos. Here's my reasoning.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...vsruTFfQ&hl=en

Final Votes:

Sasaki, Khaan, Khaan, Sigurd, Sasaki, ATPG, Tincow, ATPG

Analysis:

After a meatball vote on Sasaki, he went after Khaan for the pointless bandwagoning until he died. Which Khaan continued until he did die. What does that tell you? A two-man team hates anyone who gets a bunch of wagon votes on random suspects. That's hells dangerous for the mafia. It was quite obvious that Khaan was innocent, otherwise he wouldn't have kept doing that until he died so early.

Then, he offs Sigurd. I believe Sigurd was innocent... just playing the odds. Reason is, is because that was a tied vote between Sigurd and Ibn. The mafia wouldn't allow their partner to die in a tied vote. Any tied vote basically guarantees a townie death.

Then, he goes after Sasaki.... basically, the same reason as he went after Khaan. Because Sasaki was leading a dangerous trio of bandwagoners, which is potentially death for the mafia. Killing Sasaki only proves him innocent and therefore makes him dangerous in the endgame where he can analyze things. Methos wouldn't know that, but his partner would, most likely. *see next post*

Then, he goes after me. When I'm innocent, that's usually a scum tell. He was probably responsible for framing me, too. I went after him in several games in a row, so he probably wanted to get me lynched because he or his partner thinks I'm dangerous. I know I'm innocent, so that's a bad vote. It was also around the same time I was under heavy pressure, so any vote on me would look absolutely natural and innocent. If you're going to frame Pizzaguy, follow up on that with a vote.

Votes for TinCow, because TinCow is more dangerous than pevergreen. We all know that, pevergreen admitted as much. He's an excellent analyst, IMO.

pevergreen dies the next night because his suicide vote proves him innocent.

Then, he OMGUS votes me after I (probably) correctly ID him as scum.




There are other suspects, but after a careful analysis of the game so far, certain pairs are unlikely to be mafia.

Take Ibn-Khaldun for example. He was in a tied vote with Sigurd that one round, and several people who are still alive voted for him for that tie. There is zero benefit in trying to lynch your partner when it is perfectly stealthy and safe not to.

Those people who voted for Ibn-Khaldun, if Ibn were mafia, aren't Ibn's partner, and vice-versa. Only one of the two could probably be guilty. That's not 100% and I know Reenk will argue about epistemology somewhere in here, but most people do not think like Reenk. There's no incentive to put a death vote on your partner in this game as a bluff, because if someone vote-switches, you have to vote-switch to save them.

You haven't convinced anyone that either you or they aren't guilty, you've made yourself look scummy, and you've also probably removed your voting partner. What if you couldn't make it to the computer? Wouldn't it be obvious when there's 2 missing murders or the round gets extended? You don't death vote your partner early in this game.

Now, it is possible. You have to pretend like you're no one's partner, so you cannot obviously save your partner anymore. So that doesn't work late-game.

There's a small chance it is a bad assumption, but in a game like this, I bet about 95% of my analysis on the fact that mafia won't self-vote so early.

I place a 90% bet that they won't start a bandwagon on their own partner EARLY in a round, when there's a maximum of 1 or 2 votes on someone. If someone bandwagons on your choice, and this has been a bandwagon-y game, then you will look like total scum by removing your vote. What's wrong, something happen during the round which clears your main suspect of guilt? I don't think so.

Based on that, and a lot of painstaking analysis that I won't reveal YET, I've determined that the player who is most likely to be mafia, given the fact that he's got a lot of people who could be his partner due to his and their voting patterns, and the fact that he's been so strongly against Khaan, TinCow, myself (bandwagon people) and Sigurd (analysis person) tells me he's nervous about us... massive run-on-sentence... is Methos.


I wanted to wait until next round for my big wager. Unfortunately I don't think that's a good idea when there's obviously NO DIRECTION this round and people aren't voting to reveal their intentions. As such, I request that you either lynch me immediately, or lynch Methos.

I bet my head he's guilty.



Vote Methos, please.

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

[...] in case the mafia eliminates a suspect for me, like they did with Joooray.

Man, I'm kinda happy I died before becoming an object of an Atpg case.

And I'm also happy I put up a good fight. Very nice write-up, though I wonder why I lived in such a remote area that nobody was alerted by this explosion. Well at least I took the mafia van with me.

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Let's get a little wagon on woad and fangs

I predict that Sasaki will kill me for voting his friend Methos.



I'd like to revise the above. Check out Sasaki and Methos' antics at the end of the shlin28 lynch day. Hand of suspicion on Methos? Sure, but not like you'd actually try to kill him.

Methos votes for Sasaki before the deadline when it is clear that Sasaki won't actually be lynched for it.

unvote woad and fangs

Vote White Eyes

ATPG analysis looks good to me even if he was wrong in Shadow Fort. ;)

Shadow fort was filled with all kinds of unnecessary, distracting *ugh* information.

Here, you can just watch who acts like a scum and kill them.

Originally Posted by Captain Blackadder

unvote woad and fangs

Vote White Eyes

ATPG analysis looks good to me even if he was wrong in Shadow Fort. ;)

You just voted for a dead guy, btw.

I dont know where I am today

unvote White Eyes

Vote Methos