Hard to say becasue it depends on each factions start. I.e in greece its a coin toss between which factions have the best amries and generals and usually the faction that loses greece in my campaigns is the faction that trys to take corinth first, because they lose the battle and then get beat by the opposing faction they are already fighting. Id say if you were KH the epeirotes or the romans are the biggest worry. You can rush mac and drive them into lydia at the start easily enough.
Edit: in my BI campaign, pontus are the biggest threat. When it comes to random invasions. They took thodes off me, invaded dacia and even reached as far as italy with random full stacks. This is all whilst they are still only Still counquering modern day turkey
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