So what was the Lyncher's abilities? Is this a role that you've seen in another game?
It seems to me that another scenario would be to start with 4 townies, 2 neutrals and 1 mafia. This is Pick-A-Side, I would not be surprised if at least 2 of us went the neutral way for fun.
The mafia, if they are two, can only kill once per night or the Town would lose by default if they lynch one of their own on day 1. Thus it does not make sense that he is a mafia laying low. Besides, he is not necessarily a plain townie. I could name at least 2 roles who would not use their ability on day 1.
Thermal is not lying or he is one gutsy fellow. This game is full of uncertainty and someone could easily have shattered is alibi. I think he's not lying about being pro-town, unfortunately that does not make split pro-town for sure. He could be neutral.
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