As you said, it would have happened later, but they eventually would have come back with larger, better equipped, and more advanced armies that would have won.
In the US at least, our greatest challenge came from the nomads in the central plains, who relied on the buffalo for food. Because the trigger-happy (US) Americans slaughtered the buffalo almost to extinction for the lulz (those of you who played Oregon Trail know what I'm talking about), the nomads were crippled. While this phenomenon was not limited to the central plains people, it was especially pronounced there due to their reliance on a single animal, whereas other groups relied on a variety of animals and plants or practiced agriculture. Of course, for this to happen, it's assumed that the Europeans would have already subdued/annihilated the groups on the East coast and have large colonies there in order to be in a position to make furthur inroads, but I do not think that it is an unreasonable assumption, seeing how the European goods were in such demand, who would refuse a request for a "trading post/enclave".
I'm kind of picturing a situation more like apartheid-era South Africa.
Actually, once the Aztecs and Inca stopped being afraid of them, I can't imagine them being very useful. The realms of the Aztec and Inca consisted mainly of extensive jungles and mountain ranges, where horses are craptacular.
Yeah, that would be pretty stupid. *Knocks back a bottle of Jack Daniels and takes a drag on a cigarette before ordering Fugu*
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