Do you think there are aliens?

[Kadagar_AV]

I have been thinking some about this topic today. And I do believe there either are aliens, or will be aliens by the time we can reach them.

1. Have a look at the Drake equation - The Drake equation states that the formula for intelligent life: is N = R* fp ne fl fi fc L

where:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;
and
R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.[3]

The last factor, L, is for me the most interesting one. If a civilization gets advanced enough, then they would be able to live on forever, meaning L=X. X being death of universe.

Basically, we dont need many aliens life forms, we only need one, given this one learn to spread.


2. If there is one life form that makes it through, they are bound to be good. If they had not mastered their evil side, they would probably have killed themselves since long. I mean, look at us. We are a neutral as can be as a race. We can do sooo much good, and sooo much bad. However, we turn more and more towards good as a race. babysteps, sure, but we are still extremely young as a species.



Of course there are extremely many factors. But yeah, if we make it as a race, I think the odds are very good for eventually hooking up with some space-dudes. Most likely not in our lifetime though, unless they are already here, watching us... Louis?

[Myrddraal]

it is imo conceited to believe that aliens are watching us. why us of all people? its ridiculous.

Why would aliens watch us? Why would aliens have eyes? Eyes are a very earthy thing in my opinion.

Lets just remember that if life exists elsewhere, its evolutionary course will be completely independent of ours. The likelihood is that this other life, be it intelligent or not, would be so (dare I say) alien that we would have difficulty recognising it as intelligent. Why, perhaps in some resource rich planet movement was not necessary for survival, and these aliens have developed no natural way to move around. Naturally such aliens would have no interest in exploration, let alone in building spaceships... When we encounter these super intelligent aliens, we will probably mistake them for some kind of primeval sludge, scoop up a handful of individuals (perhaps literally) and make a new type of glue out of them.

But does other life exist at all? Most people seem content to say "The universe is really big/infinite therefore the chances are pretty high", but if the universe isn't infinite, then there's no justification to this argument at all. We have no idea about the number of stars in the universe, nor do we have any idea what the probability of those stars supporting life is (our current sample is way too limited). The probability of life could just as easily be negligible compared to the number of stars.

[Myrddraal]

Just to illustrate how ridiculous our very human interpretations of aliens are, here's that classic clip of the English housewife offering aliens tea:

[Kadagar_AV]

Why would aliens watch us? Why would aliens have eyes? Eyes are a very earthy thing in my opinion.

Lets just remember that if life exists elsewhere, its evolutionary course will be completely independent of ours. The likelihood is that this other life, be it intelligent or not, would be so (dare I say) alien that we would have difficulty recognising it as intelligent. Why, perhaps in some resource rich planet movement was not necessary for survival, and these aliens have developed no natural way to move around. Naturally such aliens would have no interest in exploration, let alone in building spaceships... When we encounter these super intelligent aliens, we will probably mistake them for some kind of primeval sludge, scoop up a handful of individuals (perhaps literally) and make a new type of glue out of them.

But does other life exist at all? Most people seem content to say "The universe is really big/infinite therefore the chances are pretty high", but if the universe isn't infinite, then there's no justification to this argument at all. We have no idea about the number of stars in the universe, nor do we have any idea what the probability of those stars supporting life is (our current sample is way too limited). The probability of life could just as easily be negligible compared to the number of stars.

Have you actually read up on the topic? I dont say this as a flame, just that some of your points are very much covered. Wiki the drake equation and take it from there :)

[Reenk Roink]

2. If there is one life form that makes it through, they are bound to be good. If they had not mastered their evil side, they would probably have killed themselves since long. I mean, look at us. We are a neutral as can be as a race. We can do sooo much good, and sooo much bad. However, we turn more and more towards good as a race. babysteps, sure, but we are still extremely young as a species.

The argument that technologically advanced alien lifeforms would be good because otherwise they'd have destroyed themselves seems very weak to me, as shown by what technologically advanced humans have done to not so technologically advanced humans in the past...

[Kadagar_AV]

The argument that technologically advanced alien lifeforms would be good because otherwise they'd have destroyed themselves seems very weak to me, as shown by what technologically advanced humans have done to not so technologically advanced humans in the past...

well, only a couple of hundred years ago, a drop in the ocean concerning universal time, we thought it natural to enslave others among our species and to kill off animals bordering to extinction.

Today, all over the world, slavery is frowned upon to say the least, and wild life preservations are all over the place, much funded by the average citizen. We are not born to be good, but generation by generation we are getting closer. Evolve that over some million years...

EDIT: I used these 2 examples as they mimic aliens stumbling upon us, or us stumbling upon aliens. If WE did, do you think we would send nukes, or try to make contact and learn from them?

[Reenk Roink]

well, only a couple of hundred years ago, a drop in the ocean concerning universal time, we thought it natural to enslave others among our species and to kill off animals bordering to extinction.

Today, all over the world, slavery is frowned upon to say the least, and wild life preservations are all over the place, much funded by the average citizen. We are not born to be good, but generation by generation we are getting closer. Evolve that over some million years...

EDIT: I used these 2 examples as they mimic aliens stumbling upon us, or us stumbling upon aliens. If WE did, do you think we would send nukes, or try to make contact and learn from them?

By the same token, we continue to spend a ton of money on military to ensure/aim for our dominance over the rest of the world. The last 100 years is by far the most violent in our history. Sure it has slowed down because of the superpowers have dwindled to two and later one, but the peace seems only kept as long as the status quo is kept.

There's almost no question in my mind that we'd exploit them BAD if we were stronger.

[Shaka_Khan]

I think outer space is so vast that there is a huge possibility that among the various aliens out there, there could be ones who look like us.

[Myrddraal]

My post was a bit cocky, but it's true nonetheless. I'll admit I haven't read of the Drake equation more than casually but... the equation is all well and good, but what is Fl? We can't even estimate its order of magnitude, so the Drake equation doesn't tell us very much about the likelihood of finding life out there without making some whopping assumptions.

EDIT:

Read the wiki, from the criticism section:

Criticism of the Drake equation follows mostly from the observation that several terms in the equation are largely or entirely based on conjecture. Thus the equation cannot be used to draw firm conclusions of any kind. As T.J. Nelson states:[19]
The Drake equation consists of a large number of probabilities multiplied together. Since each factor is guaranteed to be somewhere between 0 and 1, the result is also guaranteed to be a reasonable-looking number between 0 and 1. Unfortunately, all the probabilities are completely unknown, making the result worse than useless

Sounds about right to me.

[Banquo's Ghost]

My post was a bit cocky, but it's true nonetheless. I'll admit I haven't read of the Drake equation more than casually but... the equation is all well and good, but what is Fl? We can't even estimate its order of magnitude, so the Drake equation doesn't tell us very much about the likelihood of finding life out there without making some whopping assumptions.

One of the biggest assumptions made in these debates (and integral to the Drake equation) is that the evolution of life is a linear process and naturally proceeds from simple to complex.

This is not borne out by observation.

The evolution of life on our own planet indicates that single-celled life is very likely to evolve on any planet with the right conditions (which in themselves are rare enough). However, the sequence of catastrophic events that happened in just the right sequence to produce the bursts to multi-cellular life and then further jump-start evolution towards a human intelligence are so extraordinary, and so mathematically unlikely to fall in the same sequence anywhere else, that there is a very strong argument that we are the only intelligent life in the universe (which is not remotely infinite).

Think of that responsibility. It's us and ooze.

[Skullheadhq]

there could be ones who look like us.

Let's hope for the aliens that that isn't true.

[Wishazu]

I voted yes with a sense of hope rather than 100% conviction that "they" are out there. I think the Universe would just be so much more interesting if it is populated with more intelligent life other than ourselves.

I do believe however, that any Aliens we meet will most likely be machines. Most likely the civilisation itself will be more of a machine one than a biological one. I also think that convergence between ourselves and our technology is going to happen. With regards to exploring space at least, it would solve alot of the issues plaguing purely human space travel.