What if the 20th of July 1944 Hitler has been "terminated"

[Seamus Fermanagh]

1. Hitler's death was not enough. To succeed the coup had to kill or neutralize Hitler, Himmler, Goering, Borman, and Goebbels.

Assume that they did.

2. Germany is now headed by a half-military/half-civilian junta. The Holocaust is happening on autopilot until countermanded. The Soviets are attacking. The Western Allies have taken Rome and are established in a bridgehead in Normandy. Germany sues for peace.

The Russians say no and continue -- which they will do regardless. They have no interest in stopping short of the Elbe and probably would have preferred to get to the Rhine. The Western Allies honor their alliance with the Soviets -- however grudgingly. The War continues and we end up with the same partition (though the Holocaust is quickly curtailed and some of the stupider "hold and die" orders are never given.

But suppose the West did make a separate peace (however unlikely).

3. The Russians get to the Rhine. Sorry PJ, but der Wermacht is a shell of what it was by this point. It is the Soviets who are punching holes with armored spearheads while the Germans use hastily trained conscripts and kampfgruppe "fire brigades" to stop them as best they can. German industry, revamped by Speer, is up to the task (especially if the Western Allies are not involved anymore) but the Germans simply do not have the time to train people or enough experienced cadre to use all the new wonders that had been cooked up. Moreover, the remaining elite formations are very likely being broken up by the new German government which cannot afford groups of SS troops or Luftwaffe troops of dubious loyalty to the new government. So maybe JV-44 sets an all time record for kills and we see that in competent hands the Jadgtiger really could knock out a JS-III, but it is still too little too late. The Soviets bleed a lot more, but they still get to the Rhine (or to the split line between them and the West).

[Louis VI the Fat]

German industry, revamped by Speer, is up to the task (especially if the Western Allies are not involved anymore)

With the west out, German industry will collapse immediately. The millions of slaves must be released. There can be no more plunder either. The wholesale transfer of money, resources, products will come to a halt.

Nazi Germany economically had come to fully rely on a pyramid schemes of conquest, plunder, and bills being pushed ahead.


One must not forget the depths of depravity of Nazi Germany. How would a seperate Western peace work anyway? Would they check German factories to ensure Western slaves have been released, and just leave those of its former allies? Only leave the Russians?

Would there be Western inspectors to check the rape camps the Germans had set up for their troops, leave the Czech girls and liberate the Belgian ones?

What of Western reparations (or 'greedy and duplicitous punitive measures' for those who think reparations are not precisley that when it concerns Germany)? Would the West make a peace that leaves the plundered goods and money in Germany, only for the Russians to destroy and collect it to satisfy their claims? Or would the West prevent that and rapidly collect their restitutions themselves, with the immediate collapse of Nazi Germany's plunder economy?

What of the looted art, antiques, valuables, much in the hands of millions of ordinary Germans? For banal plunder, mere thuggery, from the lowest to the highest rank, was the largest economical sector of Germany behind the military. The Nazis had the morality of a street corner gang of thugs, including their little 'cool' gestures, identification marks, uniforms, honour codes and utter disregard for their victims.

[Jolt]

With the west out, German industry will collapse immediately. The millions of slaves must be released.

I fully agree with you. However, Speer would simply begin using German women ask a workforce for the industry. It was his original plan anyway. The other plan was use foreign forced labour (If I'm not mistaken, proposed by Himmler). The adopted plan was the second one.

[TinCow]

Part of the problem for any July 20th scenario is simply that the Germans had already been broken by that point, on both fronts. In the west, the entire defense of Normandy collapsed within two weeks and Paris was liberated only a month later. On the eastern front, Germany was in full-scale retreat and had essentially been completely kicked out of the USSR:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I honestly think that by that point it was too late for Germany to recover, no matter what happened domestically. Hypothetical German victory scenarios need to be based upon changes in the war that occurred much, much earlier.

[Pannonian]

Part of the problem for any July 20th scenario is simply that the Germans had already been broken by that point, on both fronts. In the west, the entire defense of Normandy collapsed within two weeks and Paris was liberated only a month later. On the eastern front, Germany was in full-scale retreat and had essentially been completely kicked out of the USSR:

I honestly think that by that point it was too late for Germany to recover, no matter what happened domestically. Hypothetical German victory scenarios need to be based upon changes in the war that occurred much, much earlier.

There was still a window of opportunity for Germany to achieve a comparatively satisfactory peace. The Soviet offensives had run out of steam by around mid-August, and they would customarily have to wait until winter before building up supplies for another push. This gave the Germans around 4 months in which to completely collapse in the west, and let the Allies know this to be so, so that the Anglo-Americans would be in occupation of as much of Germany as possible while the Russians were still preparing for their winter offensive.

[TinCow]

There was still a window of opportunity for Germany to achieve a comparatively satisfactory peace. The Soviet offensives had run out of steam by around mid-August, and they would customarily have to wait until winter before building up supplies for another push. This gave the Germans around 4 months in which to completely collapse in the west, and let the Allies know this to be so, so that the Anglo-Americans would be in occupation of as much of Germany as possible while the Russians were still preparing for their winter offensive.

Yes, this I agree with. Germany could certainly have had a more favorable peace. The partition of Germany was not agreed upon until Quebec in September 1944. If the war had ended in summer 1944, perhaps the partition would not have happened. That alone would have drastically improved Germany's post-war situation.

[KrooK]

Gah and you are all into mistake. GB and France entered World War 2 not to protect Poland (I assume that we are looking for real reasons not casus belli). People from GB and France - sorry but you have to face the truth.
And thats why Jaeger was right talking that no one cares about Poland. Ok maybe Churchill a bit but into 1945 he lost leadership.

But you Jaeger are making another mistake. Don't you remember that France fallen into 1940 and GB was close to fall. Do you really believe that they would stop war when they were clearly winning. And give Germany time to get stronger? They knew that victory of Germany would made them strongest country into Europe. Empire stronger than France and GB. Thats why they would not stop after Hitler's death. They simply knew that winner of this war will be ruling Europe and probably world.

Anyway jaeger - battle of Falaise was not disaster. It was great victory that let Allies finish with Germany faster.