What if the 20th of July 1944 Hitler has been "terminated"

[PanzerJaeger]

3. The Russians get to the Rhine. Sorry PJ, but der Wermacht is a shell of what it was by this point. It is the Soviets who are punching holes with armored spearheads while the Germans use hastily trained conscripts and kampfgruppe "fire brigades" to stop them as best they can. German industry, revamped by Speer, is up to the task (especially if the Western Allies are not involved anymore) but the Germans simply do not have the time to train people or enough experienced cadre to use all the new wonders that had been cooked up. Moreover, the remaining elite formations are very likely being broken up by the new German government which cannot afford groups of SS troops or Luftwaffe troops of dubious loyalty to the new government. So maybe JV-44 sets an all time record for kills and we see that in competent hands the Jadgtiger really could knock out a JS-III, but it is still too little too late. The Soviets bleed a lot more, but they still get to the Rhine (or to the split line between them and the West).

While that is certainly a valid opinion, I give the Wehrmacht a bit more credit. With independence of command, I think they could have stopped the Russians and even delivered some serious battlefield reversals. Of course, they wouldn't be marching triumphally into Moscow any time soon, but they could cause the Russians to question their commitment to total victory.

The German forces in '44 were battered, but still largley intact. Certain training programs were curtailed, but the major cut backs had not yet begun. The quality of the average German soldier and the specialists coming out of training was still better than that of the Soviets. Further they still had a large cadre of experienced veterans to help fill in the gaps. The main deficiency, at least from a defensive standpoint, were tanks and/or anti-tank guns. Production was actually up, though, as Germany was finishing the transition to a total war economy.

Whilst Hitler's blunders at Stalingrad and Kursk and the resulting Russian counteroffensives cost the Germans serious casualties, their real cost was in battlefield momentum. They actually only limited the Wehrmacht's offensive capabilities (especially in tanks) for their respective years ('42 & '43). The true final nail in the coffin was Bagration in the summer of ‘44. That was where great swathes of German troops were simply encircled and captured/destroyed, where entire divisions and even armies were swallowed up in the most perfect example of Soviet deep operations theory until the invasion of Manchuria.

The Soviets must be given credit for excellent planning and coordination, but Bagration’s biggest benefactor was arguably Hitler himself. By this point, Hitler had wrested almost complete strategic and even tactical control over the battlefield from his generals. He insisted on a form of static warfare that was diametrically opposed to the reality of the battlefield. Every decision had to be approved by Hitler, who refused to allow his generals to give ground, denying them the fluidity that characterized conflict in the East. The biggest losses occurred during the liberation of Minsk, which Hitler had declared a Fester Platz, where the 4th and 9th Armies were not allowed to withdraw and were summarily encircled and destroyed.

However, with operational freedom, I think much of the damage could have been mitigated. Bagration was no surprise; it had been anticipated well in advance by the German commanders. They understood deep operations and how to defeat it – or at least how to avoid the massed encirclements. The Russians were somewhat successful in attempting to convince the Germans that the attack would be against Army Group North instead of Army Group Center, but by the time of the offensive the breakthrough points were well known. Had they been allowed to withdraw and let the Russians exhaust themselves, they would have been in decent shape. Manstein would almost certainly have been reinstated, and the addition of the freed up forces from the West and Italy would have put him in a perfect position to execute a “Backhand Blow” type operation that he had been arguing for since Kursk.

After such a victory, the Germans would have had a lot working in their favor. Unharrassed industry (at least until the Russians got around to building a strategic bombing force), one front to focus on, excellent leadership unhindered by constant interference, and many advanced new weapons coming online. The 262 would have decimated the Russian Air Force alone.

That’s all just speculation on my part, of course.

With the west out, German industry will collapse immediately. The millions of slaves must be released. There can be no more plunder either. The wholesale transfer of money, resources, products will come to a halt.

The biggest economic benefits Germany recieved from the occupied territories were favorable exchange rates and forced labor. The loss of either of those would not have collapsed the German economy. Normal exchange rates could have been sustained in the short and medium terms without much impact, and women were a vast untapped resource throughout the war.

But you Jaeger are making another mistake. Don't you remember that France fallen into 1940 and GB was close to fall. Do you really believe that they would stop war when they were clearly winning. And give Germany time to get stronger? They knew that victory of Germany would made them strongest country into Europe. Empire stronger than France and GB. Thats why they would not stop after Hitler's death. They simply knew that winner of this war will be ruling Europe and probably world.

I think removing the Nazis from power would have had a big impact on the Allies. We'll never know.

Anyway jaeger - battle of Falaise was not disaster. It was great victory that let Allies finish with Germany faster.

For the Germans, it was a monumental disaster, and one of Hitler's greatest blunders. That is what I was saying.