Korean sword-rattling

[seireikhaan]

My feeling is that NK is to China what that old "friend" from high school who was kinda cool back in the day, but hasn't kicked all those bad, high school habits now that he's in his 40's. After a while, for its own good, China's going to terminate the relationship. The CCP has matured considerably since the 50's. NK has, if anything, regressed. When China intervened in the Korean war, the two bore strong philosophical similarities. The simple truth of the matter is that no longer exists. I tend to agree with Furunculus- if China is to interfere in an out and out war between SK and NK, its going to be on a "humanitarian" mission to ensure that it gets a piece of the pie, in some way, when SK emerges with total victory.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

My feeling is that NK is to China what that old "friend" from high school who was kinda cool back in the day, but hasn't kicked all those bad, high school habits now that he's in his 40's. After a while, for its own good, China's going to terminate the relationship. The CCP has matured considerably since the 50's. NK has, if anything, regressed. When China intervened in the Korean war, the two bore strong philosophical similarities. The simple truth of the matter is that no longer exists. I tend to agree with Furunculus- if China is to interfere in an out and out war between SK and NK, its going to be on a "humanitarian" mission to ensure that it gets a piece of the pie, in some way, when SK emerges with total victory.

I'm in considerable agreement with this.


I too think this will blow over. It only escalates past a staring contest if NK pulls the trigger. If NK does so, they have about a week to cripple/take SK out of things. Any longer and USA reinforcements start to arrive in bulk and will settle the hash of anyone the ROK soldiers cannot handle.

This time, we'll have a little sub rosa chat with China first and find out where "the line" is (in 1950 we didn't know). North of that, Chinese volunteers will "establish order in the interests of regional stability."

[Centurion1]

The conflict will. Not be as easy in a rok vs. Nka encounter the north Korean military while not as advanced as s. Korea or as well trained nk does have a decent military of over a million men. It wouldn't be like fighting Saddam sucks Hussein it would be a war. And if China and the us threw in and fought proxy style without diplomatically involving themselves it would be even worse

[Subotan]

If there was a war, Japan would certainly send SDF forces over. Just a thought.

A lot depends on Kim's internal position. If he feels threatened by the generals, and considers that the hand over of power to his son simply will not work, he may just be insane enough to have one last hurl of the dice in order to secure support at home. If that did happen, China would probably do exactly as Furunculus suggested but otherwise stay out of it.

[gaelic cowboy]

I'm think this was attempt to grandstand internationally to shore up support at home there have been several low level provocations in last say two years or so here are three I found quick enough.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/TOE60Q066.htm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37244411/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30035197/

I would bet this is designed to allow Kim to give up summit while appearing strong later on at some nuke talks later in return for oil an food aid etc. That devaluation of the Norths currency was a disaster and he knows that he needs the armies approval on his sons succession for when he dies or steps down.

[Centurion1]

Only with us approval subotan

[Ice]

The conflict will. Not be as easy in a rok vs. Nka encounter the north Korean military while not as advanced as s. Korea or as well trained nk does have a decent military of over a million men. It wouldn't be like fighting Saddam sucks Hussein it would be a war. And if China and the us threw in and fought proxy style without diplomatically involving themselves it would be even worse

North Korea's army is pure garbage. They may have a million men (I'm assuming thats counting reserves), but I'd be willing to most their soliders are poorly trained and equipped. In addition, their navy, air force, and armor are laughable vs what South Korea could muster with US support. However, they have three important things going for them; their massive artillery positions pointing at Seoul, possible nuclear weapons, and the fact that South Korea has no desire to "occupy" and rebuild North Korea.

[Centurion1]

That is not true. Almost all of n. Koreas meagar gdp goes to defense spending. The country is far more militarized than s. Korea and they are well trained in tactics. Most of their naval power is absolutely obsolete and air is weak as well (but dangerous) their land forces are well supplied by china and are quite dangerous it is a million without reserves actually. The rok would win but it would be very very bloody. As well if the us invaded we would lose a lot of men. If you think people complain about afghanistan and iraq......

[naut]

They're a bit like those two friends you have who have that bit of sexual tension and chemistry between them. And they have for years, but neither actually ever take the plunge. And you feel like hitting them both over the head and saying: "Get it over with already so the rest of us can get on with our lives in peace."

North Korea's army is pure garbage. They may have a million men (I'm assuming thats counting reserves), but I'd be willing to most their soliders are poorly trained and equipped. In addition, their navy, air force, and armor are laughable vs what South Korea could muster with US support. However, they have three important things going for them; their massive artillery positions pointing at Seoul, possible nuclear weapons, and the fact that South Korea has no desire to "occupy" and rebuild North Korea.

Hmmm. I disagree. This is a country that puts almost all of its GDP (although meagre as that is) into it's armed forces. You can dismiss them out of hand just like that. Their armour may be outdated, but by sheer weight of numbers (actually well over 3:1) they hold the advantage in a preemptive strike. Similarily in terms of air force they have 1200-1500 planes. The issues that would decide any conflict are: 1) do the troops have the morale to fight a bitter war and 2) does the North have enough fuel and other supplies to wage war beyond any initial strike.

[Centurion1]

Lol pyscho and I speak with the same voice mwahahaha

[Ice]

So you think North Korea has a decent military because:
-It's large
-They spend a lot of their GDP on the military

Do I have this correct?

Also, please take a look at the quality of North Korean tanks and aircraft.

Edit:

I took the liberty of finding it for you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_...%27s_Air_Force

Look at the country of origin. It tells you something about the age of the aircraft North Korea is using.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_...y_Ground_Force

Same thing.

[Furunculus]

North Korea's army is pure garbage. They may have a million men (I'm assuming thats counting reserves), but I'd be willing to most their soliders are poorly trained and equipped. In addition, their navy, air force, and armor are laughable vs what South Korea could muster with US support. However, they have three important things going for them; their massive artillery positions pointing at Seoul, possible nuclear weapons, and the fact that South Korea has no desire to "occupy" and rebuild North Korea.

i am with ICE here.

the one significant threat NK really has it the thousands of artillary pieces pointed towards Soeul.

But if NK went ape-poo they would get decimated in the DMZ.

The Japanese and US Navy would quickly assist the SK Navy and the NK Navy would end up on the bottom rapidly.

SK & US airforces would hammer NK positions on the DMZ with Paveways and Tomohawks, and ground forces would mop up the rest with counter-battery fire.

SK and US forces would use the breaches in the DMZ to counterattack and wouldn't even stop on the border, they would zoom north and sever all arteries of supply to the frontline whilst the airforce and border troops keep the NK frontline busy dodging bombs.

China would immediately move into the North and take over Kim's Crown Jewels which would send NK defence plans into disarray.

PhongYang would fall within three weeks.

as far as training doctrine and equipment are concerned NK is utterly irrelevant on the modern battlerfield.

[PanzerJaeger]

i am with ICE here.

Me too.

This would be far more like the First Gulf War than the Second. North Korea's military is exactly what the US military, and by extension the ROK, has been built to defeat - large, organized, and built around Soviet doctrine. Numbers are meaningless in this day and age, it's all about technology. As was displayed in the First Gulf War, if you allow your military to fall even a step behind your enemy, it can render very costly weapons systems -such as Iraq's Russian tanks and fighters - useless. The Air Force has countless non-nuclear choices in its arsenal that are specially designed to neutralize vast enemy columns of tanks and infantry.

No, I don't think the DRNK proper would be much trouble at all - at least in terms of military casualties (they would certainly give Seoul a good pounding, for which they are prepared). What would be worrying is any sort of occupation. We don't really have a firm grasp on the psyche of the average North Korean. From our perspective, he should be thrilled at having the totalitarian yolk lifted from his back, but our perspective certainly hasn't always panned out. He could be so brainwashed at this point that he would fight to the death, or he may be somewhere between the two. If I was the Obamanator under such a scenario, I'd definitely let the South Koreans take charge on that one...

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...
Numbers are meaningless in this day and age, it's all about technology....

While I agree with most of your assessment of NK's capability (hence my point above suggesting they had only about a week to succeed before the counter-response took them down), I disagree with your dictum above.

Morale and the will-to-combat is the central issue. Lacking that, almost any force advantage is useless. With plenty of it, your numerous but technologically backward/doctrinally disadvantaged troops can still do far better than their cruddy tools and training would suggest. The best weapon in the world fails if the enemy have more soldiers willing to close than you have rounds with which to shoot them.

[Husar]

I was skeptical at first but Ice convinced me with the Wikipedia link.
The MiG-29 is the most modern fighter they seem to have, apparently not the most modern model and only 30 as well. The MiG-21 is getting really old, even the more modern models shouldn't atand much pf a chance against a decent modern airforce. Those MiG-17 and MiG-19 derivatives are Vietnam-war tech...I know, so is the M-16 but these planes are hardly able to fire missiles, they would bring guns to a missile fight...and even if they have missiles they are probably rather inaccurate. The tanks seems similarly old(most of them anyway) so they should be easy to penetrate and destroy with modern technology. That would then leave about a million or so men armed with AKs and RPGs, who can be very dangerous depending on how they are used.

If Kim Jong Il knows that and hasn't completely descended into madness yet, I doubt he will attack, maybe make a parade, show the people his "high-tech" 1950ies airplanes in a nice parade and demonstration of military "might" and uhm, yeah...

[Subotan]

Only with us approval subotan

I doubt that the Japanese would wait for a US rubber stamp if the DPRK attacked

That is not true. Almost all of n. Koreas meagar gdp goes to defense spending.

Actually, it's about 25% of GDP.

The very concept of GDP is unknown is North Korea. They are so backward, they prefer to use Gross Volume of Social Production (GVSP), which happily for them, consistently overestimates the power of the already clearly weak North Korean economy

Most of their naval power is absolutely obsolete and air is weak as well (but dangerous) their land forces are well supplied by china and are quite dangerous it is a million without reserves actually. The rok would win but it would be very very bloody. As well if the us invaded we would lose a lot of men. If you think people complain about afghanistan and iraq......

This is true. It would be an absolute blood bath.

Limited oil supplies

The North Koreans have taken precautions to make sure that all of their precious oil supplies are funneled into the military. All civilian/industrial energy comes from coal/hydro.

Unknown levels of morale (if the armed forces are high in morale they'd fight to the death, if low then they could crumble)

I think the organised forces would crack pretty easily, once the facade of the invincible North Korean Army is ripped to shreds by the South Koreans. Shock and awe might be effective, simply because our level of technological advancement is so far beyond theirs.

The international response

China has a very realist foreign policy. Once North Korea's actions become detrimental to China's interests (i.e. a war), China will drop Kim faster than you can say "Ronery"

The topography of Korea

Particularly northern Korea. It's easier to strike south than strike north.

Outnumbering every aspect of any war. Men. Armour. Artillery. Rockets. Planes. Navy.

And all within a few miles of the Dmz....

Capable submarine force. Sinking a S.K ship and avoiding detection displays that they do have some knowledge of how to effectively use subs.

I have heard nothing but bad things about North Korea's naval cabability.

[Shaka_Khan]

They may have a million men (I'm assuming thats counting reserves),

That's excluding their reserves. They have a lot more reserves, but I'm not sure about their condition since I figure that their starving.
They have 100,000 special forces too, which is the highest number of special forces in the world.

[rotorgun]

Before we all put the proverbial cart before the horse, doesn't it speak volumes that South Korea hasn't seen fit to retaliate to the sinking of one of its vessels, with the loss of 46 of her sailors? I address what Seamus refers to as "will to fight." In addition, Japan's constitution specifically forbids the use of its armed forces in an offensive role, something that some in Japan would like to see changed. I hardly think that they would become involved without a mandate from the UN's, or the US government's tacit approval at least.

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

[Ice]

In addition, Japan's constitution specifically forbids the use of its armed forces in an offensive role, something that some in Japan would like to see changed. I hardly think that they would become involved without a mandate from the UN's, or the US government's tacit approval at least.

Would the the defense of an ally be offensive?

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

Not really. I highly doubt the ROK wants a war with North Korea which what a counter attack could easily turn into.

[Furunculus]

Before we all put the proverbial cart before the horse, doesn't it speak volumes that South Korea hasn't seen fit to retaliate to the sinking of one of its vessels, with the loss of 46 of her sailors? I address what Seamus refers to as "will to fight." In addition, Japan's constitution specifically forbids the use of its armed forces in an offensive role, something that some in Japan would like to see changed. I hardly think that they would become involved without a mandate from the UN's, or the US government's tacit approval at least.

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

japans 'defensive' activities could be to deploy naval forces as a defensive screen either side of the parallel which would free up SK naval forces otherwise committed to sanitising its own waters.

no readily causes a military incident when the other side has 10,000 artillery pieces within range of your capital, but if NK do start a war I expect the US/SK/Ja/Ch to finish it very quickly.

[TinCow]

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

No, I am not amazed. The benefits to South Korea from a war are very minimal (even a successful one) while the costs of such a war in lives and damage will be huge, even if the war is quick. North Korea has nuclear weapons; you don't rush casually into war against a nuclear power.