The Dead Zone (or, BP and the Oil Well That Keeps on Giving)

**Lemur** · 05-26-2010, 20:18

Haven't seen this subject in the Backroom yet, and it's probably the biggest story of the year.

First, and most important, what if there ain't jack-all we can do with a 5,000-foot deep oil spill?

Tomorrow BP is attempting the "top kill" maneuver -- pumping mud into the well. If it doesn't work, well ... then what? Junk shot? Top hat? Loony stuff like nukes? Relief wells will take months to drill and no one's sure if they'll work to relieve pressure. It's entirely possible, even likely, that we're going to be stuck helplessly watching as this well spews oil into the Gulf for years. Even if the flow were stopped tomorrow, the damage to marshes, coral, and marine life is done. The Gulf of Mexico will become an ecological and economic dead zone. There's no real way to undo it, no matter who's in charge.

I'm curious to see how the public's mood shifts once it becomes clear that we are powerless in the face of this thing. What if there's just nothing we can do? That's not a feeling to which Americans are accustomed.

This is pretty close to voicing my deepest fears. 5k feet is just shy of a mile, and a mile under the ocean is a supremely hostile working environment. I am appalled that shutoff valves were not required for these rigs, but what are we going to do? It's not as though we can fire up the time machine and undo Dick Cheney's energy task force. The damage is done, and it may keep on being done for some time.

It's not likely (but possible) that we have screwed up the Gulf of Mexico for a generation. Think on that for a moment.

**gaelic cowboy** · 05-26-2010, 20:22

Kal from the economist had a poke at this BP/Iceland Volcano

**Beskar** · 05-26-2010, 20:24

BP won't have as much money to fund the Climate Skeptic lobby anytime soon, that is for sure.

**gaelic cowboy** · 05-26-2010, 20:27

Originally Posted by Lemur

It's not likely (but possible) that we have screwed up the Gulf of Mexico for a generation. Think on that for a moment.

Absolute disgrace and the level of shoulder shruging of the BP execs is sickening trying to pass the buck etc. I say it's time to break out granpappy's ole blunderbus and fire a couple of pellets up there rear ends.

**Vladimir** · 05-26-2010, 20:32

I didn't think it was possible to despise both ends of an issue.

I'm seething with anger at both the administration and BP.

**gaelic cowboy** · 05-26-2010, 20:36

Originally Posted by Vladimir

I didn't think it was possible to despise both ends of an issue.

I'm seething with anger at both the administration and BP.

Yeah those idiots were far too chummy with the execs not a good idea I gues and the BP crowd were more interested in saving money at the risk of destroying fishing and tourism in the gulf.

**Vladimir** · 05-26-2010, 20:39

Originally Posted by gaelic cowboy

Yeah those idiots were far too chummy with the execs not a good idea I gues and the BP crowd were more interested in saving money at the risk of destroying fishing and tourism in the gulf.

I'm beyond rationality at this point. I understand the administration needs to take an aggressive stance but all they've done is make jack-booted threats. The BP executive's testimony was pathetic.

All I really care about now are the people in the Gulf states affected by this.

**TinCow** · 05-26-2010, 21:16

As far as I am aware, there is a guaranteed fix: drilling a new shaft into the existing one and using the new shaft to seal the old one. From what I read, BP started doing this almost immediately, but it takes upwards of 2 to 3 months to drill that deep, so it's a very slow solution. Everything they've tried so far is an attempt to stop the damage earlier, since 2 to 3 months of leakage is an ecological apocalypse.

**Lemur** · 05-26-2010, 20:33

Here's a video of an ABC reporter diving into the toxic stew of oil and detergent-based dispersants with one of the Cousteaus. Chilling stuff.

**Shaka_Khan** · 05-28-2010, 20:29

Originally Posted by Lemur

Loony stuff like nukes?

What if nuking it makes the hole bigger?

**gaelic cowboy** · 05-28-2010, 20:38

Originally Posted by Shaka_Khan

What if nuking it makes the hole bigger?

The pressure at that depth would force good chuck of explosion down I would say the hole would be squashed flat and blocked.

**Lemur** · 05-29-2010, 20:38

Looks as though the top kill did not work. Dang it.

Typically, you know pretty quickly if a top kill works. BP has been pumping the kill since Wednesday, trying a number of tactics, including junk shots. Their announcement last night that it would be at least through the weekend before if they know the results of the kill doesn't ring true to me. Certainly they know a lot more than what they are saying.

Recall that a top kill will work only if enough back pressure can be generated in the leaking wellhead to allow the pumped mud to overcome the pressure from the well, turn the flow around, and then build enough hydrostatic head to overcome the formation pressure. The junk shot was designed to do just that, but apparently BP had decided to try just mud for the first effort. I believe that the high rate that BP pumped the mud washed out the cracks in the riser, actually reducing back pressure. The cracks in the riser are where you saw the mud flowing if you watched the live feed of the top kill the last couple of days. As a side note, I do find it interesting that the BP feed no longer includes the bent riser view of the last couple of days,and now looks like the end of the riser where the riser insertion tool had been used previously.

Because of the washed out riser cracks, the bridging material pumped in for the junk shot probably can't clog up the riser and BOP enough to overcome the flowing pressure and allow mud to go down the well, so the mud they are pumping is likely just going into the kill and chokes valves and coming out the top of the BOP.

-edit-

It's official.