A Bridge Zhou Far - Three Stars Rising [Concluded]

[Chaotix]

Bodyguard does not seem like a scum roleclaim. Let alone bodyguard who WINS by being killed. So there is no reason to lynch beefy.

That's true. Chalk it up to lack of thought behind that vote I guess. So what do we do with him, then? Waste our night actions to get him killed?

No? How? What? There aren't statistical odds for scum deciding to attack someone they know is protected. And you are talking about probability anyway.

Yep, probability. When you think about it in that sense:

-There is a 1/40 chance GH chooses Beskar to be protected, and a 1/40 chance nationalists choose Beskar to be killed. For both of those to occur at the same time, it's a 1/1600 chance.

-There are at least 4 insurgents in the game. 2 of these are Japanese, the ones concerned with the leaking. There are roughly 10 people out of 40 who knew about the protection. The chance that a player is Japanese is 1/20, and the chance that that player was in the group of 10 is 1/20 X 1/4 = 1/80.

Of course, this is a real, live game. So probability is not always applicable - due to behaviors of individual players, certain among them are more high-profile (like Beskar) and therefore more or less likely to be chosen for certain actions. At the same time, there's a greater chance for insurgents to try to get themselves positioned as officers.

Any way you slice it, it's more likely that this was not just a coincidence.

Chaotix sounds like he's very concerned with protecting azathoth.

Not really. I would vote him if I got a scum vibe from him. I just thought it was kind of funny that Romanic still hasn't figured out what exactly happened there.

[seireikhaan]

I was relocating to my next temporary location yesterday. As per the leak- I consider it highly unlikely. T'was the first night. If there was a hostile leak, it would 1) Be entirely too soon to act on it, 2) Raise potential alarms, and 3) Help extend the game when that is entirely not in the interests of hostile forces. Further, from the perspective of a Japanese/Nationalist, its an entirely sensible kill to see if any alarm can be raised against our glorious chairman.

[Romanic]

Not really. I would vote him if I got a scum vibe from him. I just thought it was kind of funny that Romanic still hasn't figured out what exactly happened there.

Oh, now I get it! Sasaki misspelled Azathoth's name. He was not claiming lynch immunity. Meh.

unvote: Azathoth

[GeneralHankerchief]

Okay, briefly checking in since I haven't been on in a while and won't be on again for about 5 or so hours. I'll organize night activities when I get back.

@Renata: Because I didn't think anything of it at the time.

I would also prefer it if Beefy were lynched.

[taka]

@Renata and Winston

So being the second person to vote for a particular player is called bandwaggoning?

heard of "3rd one on the bandwagon is usually the scummy one?" we'll im not 3rd thats for sure

I'm SURE theres a bigger bandwaggon than that on Autolycus

You two are deffinitely being edgy over someone who isn't even anywhere near being lynched

I'll be *watching* you two

[Renata]

@Renata and Winston

So being the second person to vote for a particular player is called bandwaggoning?

heard of "3rd one on the bandwagon is usually the scummy one?" we'll im not 3rd thats for sure

I'm SURE theres a bigger bandwaggon than that on Autolycus

You two are deffinitely being edgy over someone who isn't even anywhere near being lynched

I'll be *watching* you two

I'll be voting you.