The Trouble in Waiting [Concluded]

[Romanic]

Mafia response: Fine by me, *crosses fingers*

Townie response: I'd be fine with you and me being lynch number 1 and 2. Either order is fine by me. <-----I pick this one.

Right, except that my answer is more like: I can't remove my vote without being the only one ahead of the tally. You're quoting the part that makes you look good.

100% losing a townie (me)
50% losing a townie (me) or 50% losing an unclear faction member (you) <-----I pick this one.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Are you honestly so afraid of having 2 little votes on you? You weren't so squeamish about that in other games. What's the dealio?

So, are we doing this thing or not? I can fling myself pointlessly toward a dumb lynch with the best of them. Better now than later, when the lynch actually has a reasonable chance of success.

*cracks neck, knuckles*

I love a good, mutually destructive brawl. I'll see you in the burny place!

[Romanic]

Ah-ah! Now we're talking! Nothing like a good Russian roulette match!

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ah-ah! Now we're talking! Nothing like a good Russian roulette match!

No no nononononono..... you misunderstand. If you want my head, it will cost yours. I'll just keep repeating the call until I get what I want.

If you accept those conditions, I'll vote for myself. I won't leave it up to random.org.

If you accept, it is a 100% chance of your death and mine. Are you ready to die?

[Pinman]

Unvote; Vote: Romanic

Happy Pizza?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Unvote; Vote: Romanic

Happy Pizza?

I have various unspeakable wounds that can never be healed, and my only release from the pain is relishing the warm, metallic elixir that is the blood of mafiosi. I won't be happy until they are all dead.... EXTERMINATED!!!! and then, when they die, a new game starts and they come back! The cycle never ends!

AND THERE ARE BUGS ALL OVER ME THAT WON'T GO AWAY!!!

But overall yes, I'm quite happy. Why do you ask?

Can't sleep. Clown will eat me.

[seireikhaan]

12 hours left.

[Romanic]

No no nononononono..... you misunderstand. If you want my head, it will cost yours. I'll just keep repeating the call until I get what I want.

If you accept those conditions, I'll vote for myself. I won't leave it up to random.org.

If you accept, it is a 100% chance of your death and mine. Are you ready to die?

Hahaha, so now you are convinced enough that I am mafia to throw your life away? Again, you're wrong buddy.

As if I had a choice, lynch you then lynch me, but we both know that everyone else is king on this decision, we can't decide what they will do.

Either way, your friend Pinman came to your rescue, so we won't have to test your readiness to lynch yourself.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I would like to post my endgame perspective, sort of a tradition these days. I would also like to preface this with: I have plenty of flaws and I am clearly not always right, especially when it counted this game. But I still feel there's something relevant in the following analysis and commentary.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

No no nononononono..... you misunderstand. If you want my head, it will cost yours. I'll just keep repeating the call until I get what I want.

If you accept those conditions, I'll vote for myself. I won't leave it up to random.org.

If you accept, it is a 100% chance of your death and mine. Are you ready to die?

Comment:

When I make challenges like this on the first round, it means I'm dead serious and I'm ready to die, because I'm a vanilla townie and I don't care if I die round one. Then, I am not a distraction on the final rounds of the game where people almost instinctively want me dead "just in case". I'm not usually murdered right away because I am the definition of lynch bait.

If I did this challenge tactic as mafia I could easily die, and leave my one partner helpless. Bad bad move as mafia, too high-risk, and no real gain. It didn't help me survive a couple rounds later from the lynch, you see. It doesn't impress anyone.

Here, it was a dumb move because Romanic wasn't mafia. But if he was, it ramps up the pressure to an extreme level, and that's what you tend to have to do as townie... pressure the mafia. A miss on my part, but I kept it but because Romanic is as stubborn as me. A compliment, but we can see where that stubbornness can cause issues.

Lynching you was way too easy. IMO you were innocent, unless Khaan says otherwise.

Comment:

Good to say, bad to believe. However, I want active participation from the dead, and this encourages that. If Romanic were mafia, I'd still want to hear his lies and see if I couldn't detect subtle variations. Every bit of information, even lies, are things I can comb for anomalies. That's why I make comments like this; it's useful to me if Rom was town or mafia, and thus it seems a good move, to me.

vote: Pinman

Romanic wasn't interested in responding to Pizza's request for a vote on Pinman, but Pinman did respond, in reverse.

Comment:

A blip on my radar. I notice when people try to use my arguments or my name as added weight for their own cases. Mafia do that more often than town, but it was also possible Renata just agreed with me. But I note that for later... just in case there are additional blips.

vote: Beskar
Admit your guilt!

I already noted why this sounded strange. For more on woad&fangs, just re-read this post.

vote: Pizza

I've just got a nagging feeling about him.

Comment:

Falsely triggers my scumdar. Who votes for me round 1 and round 2, based on nothing?

This was a false reading for me, because ultimately Secura wasn't mafia, obviously.... but also, mafia seem to know better than to do that, because then it results in:

No you don't.

You voted for me right off the bat, on the first round. There was nothing to "have a feeling" about.

This doesn't pass the sniff test for me. Why lie in a vanilla game unless you're mafia.

unvote, vote: Secura

However, I follow up.

To be quite honest, there's no point in me trying to argue the toss about this, as I don't have neither the time (this is my only day off work for the next nine days) nor even half the capability as a player to out-argue Pizza; if y'all wish to waste a lynch on a vanilla townie, I'm not going to stop you.

Comment:

This, plus speaking with her in private, lead me to believe she was innocent based on her pulse being exactly what I remember as baseline and typical for Secura. There was no deviation from standard. Which means I did this:

Okay.

Too apologetic for me. Strange shift in tone between this and the post before it.

unvote, vote: ArpeggiateTHIS

I'm systematically looking for odd behavior... and missing all my targets so far. But, this behavior generates discussion and reactions from townies and mafia alike, for later analysis. That's why I do this stuff.

Vote: Renata

Reason: Diana and Split just died, plus I am still alive, plus some of her posts so far. Ignoring woad's R1 vote on her, the previous "blip" on the radar, plus given the list of players remaining, I didn't figure those specific two would be DIY, Blackadder, landlubber, or civplayah's kill choices. It just reeked Renata.

(Now she will tell me it was all woad's idea, taking some of the wind out of my sails. That's good though, I can handle it; it builds character)

Deflection from what?

I know EXACTLY why AtPG is voting me. Superficially sensible, but wrong, Pizza.

I note that Renata was reading my mind here. She knew why I thought she was guilty.

Oh?

You seem to have developed psychic powers all of a sudden. Please, tell me why I am voting for you.

I call her on it immediately. Plus this.

You know who has ESP, psychic powers, and other mental abilities beyond that of normal men? Renata in general, but mafia specifically.

As you wish.

Unvote, vote: Beskar

However, I still say Renata is scummy for the same reasons.

We had a nice wagon on Renata.... shame.

See the dead might be proven innocent, but that doesn't mean they know who is guilty. I unfortunately had to learn this the hard way this game.... as did everyone else when Pinman later accused me. That's really the moral for this game... the dead don't have special knowledge either.

Hey, look at me... I lost about 100 IQ points when I died. What the heck happened there? I guess the brain is the first thing to decompose.

unvote; vote: Beskar

So mafia don't use me as a lynch target constantly, and I have to battle the hordes of bad arguments which will end up with us losing the game, because they cannot accept I am not guilty.

Comment:

Doesn't make sense in a vanilla game with only a few votes, especially when it caps you for good. Which makes me a total hypocrite of course, but tu quoque isn't grounds for dismissing this point. It is a good point, and I need to take it to heart more. I've been voting myself or threatening my own death too much lately.

If, for example:

Askthepizzaguy- lynch
CaptainBlackadder- murder
Civplayah- murder
Death is Yonder- lynch
God Emperor- murder
Landlubber- murder
Renata
woad&fang


Only 2 lynches remain. I am an incorrect lynch. But I agree on Renata.

Vote: Renata

By now, enough time has passed and enough people have died that full analysis of the game usually reveals the guilty parties. I've done this as a standard procedure on almost every single game I've been townie in the last several dozen games as townie. And I've been here enough times as mafia, that I know what mafia typically do in these situations, if they are good players IMO. The endgame tactical situation is the hardest for the mafia to avoid giving scumtells in. It's pressure, and you must reveal your hand as well by voting the incorrect party.

Townies have a hit/miss ratio of maybe 1:2 or 1:3 in the endgame, but mafia almost always have a miss ratio of 100%. As a result, I will almost reflexively vote anyone who votes me at this point, especially if they haven't shown any indication of thinking I am scummy until now, because mafia play the game round-by-round... doing whatever is best for them that round, and then working on the next round when it comes. Townies generally point to scum and follow up on later rounds... it's not as compartmentalized because they aren't concerned with survival on every round, just the later ones. At least that's my view. Here I really thought it was Renata based on the kill pattern and what I know of her, especially with me still alive. I was meant to be lynched this round. So when dead proven townie Pinman calls for my head, you know who will follow? Every mafioso in the game... it was their plan anyway, so it just got easier.

Vote: Askthepizzaguy

With no reason, and given the tactical situation, this indicated very highly that he was a scum. No pressure on me until now, no case (even now) and following the bad advice of a dead proven townie. That's what mafia do in these situations, almost 100% of the time.

After warning him off, and saying to vote Renata, he refused. I considered this to be the game over mistake if he was townie, so it was time to put pressure on him.

This assumes that you are innocent. If you are mafia, then all you have to do is control the course of the discussion today and you win. I know that you are more than capable of doing this and there is a confirmed innocent claiming that you (or Renata) are likely behind the killings.

But this post cemented it for me. Notice the change in tone from warning him off to accusing him of deadly scummery.

"This assumes that you are innocent." is just the kind of oddball comment a scum makes.

You know why it is bad? It is because this is obviously not directed at me. Woad isn't talking to ME here, he's speaking to everyone else in the game, while addressing me.

Mafia do this all the time, because mafia lie all the time, and mafia vote with malice aforethought and with the intention of causing destruction, death, and despair. That difference leads to different thought patterns and behavior. When they lie, they fall back into time-honored patterns of lying behavior. The lie pattern here is that he's not really talking to me or trying to convince me of anything or even really thinking I am guilty. His post indicates nothing except "if I am mafia" and he's settled on that with a closed mind.

Just as a mafia would.

A townie would have given me a little bit more credit. Even Pinman, my accuser, actually listened to me when I started hammering him in private over his accusation. He promised to look over my case on woad one more time. Even MY ACCUSER gives me more credit than this, because my accuser was a known townie. He actually has in his mind the option that I could be innocent, even if he doesn't believe it at the time.

That is why.... I reach out to townies. They have doubt. Mafia have no doubt. Like an evil cult, they are absolutely convinced of their own position based on supernatural knowledge... the kind of knowledge you only get from being scum. Which is that Askthepizzaguy MUST DIE in order for mafia to win here.

Townies don't know that for certain. Townies accept there is another option. Mafia will not.... they might fake it, rarely, but here on the final rounds, they will 99% of the time close their minds to me and accuse me of being scum or just ignore me entirely. I detected this streak of closed mindedness and false accusation from woad. And then I examined him more closely and saw all the other tells I laid out in my big accusation posts. I was a man enraged by that point....

Yes, so of course you choose incorrectly. But at least the dead guy told you to do it.

I don't buy it, scum.

edit:
Waiting for some dead, confirmed innocent to suggest an incorrect lynch, at this stage of the game, is the most common (and most effective) way of getting another failed lynch and a victory for mafia.

What you just did is hugely scummy. I've been waiting for you to make a mistake, and this is it, woadsy.

QFT.

What are you trying to pull? This isn't my first game of mafia, woad.

I get passionate. Once I am convinced someone is bovine-excrementing me I really do change from open-minded Askthepizzaguy to a man with a bloody hook for some reason.

To all I falsely accuse when I am in such a mode: I am sorry.

• No.... that's obviously and demonstrably false.
• Straw Man argument, to boot.

Those two things are incredibly bad form and townies rarely do these things. Straw man, maybe. But that's when they think someone is scum and are really pressing their lynch.... I find that the straw man tactic is almost universally understood to be a no-no by townies looking casually for leads.

But making known false statements in a vanilla game is almost proof of scum to a very high degree. I should have pressed this more.... I could prove here that it was bogus, and I should have.

Specifically, this line:

O, but you sure tried to imply that you were above suspicion. In fact, the entire crux of your argument so far has been that "I am innocent so obviously that other guy is guilty".

Wasn't even close to reality, and it should have been objectively obvious to everyone that it was dead wrong. This should have been the centerpiece but instead of that tell, I focused on less persuasive and less conclusive tells.

I forget sometimes how to be a prosecutor and I just throw the kitchen sink at people. I overlook the bloody glove/fingerprints and I focus on the plane tickets.

This is total bull.

Why do you play a game of mafia? To catch the bad guys, or BE the bad guy.

I truly believe this.... but I am seeing more and more that not everyone agrees with me.

Why do you play mafia if you only show up to randomly vote, and in the critical rounds not make your own assessment or listen to your own gut or read the thread before voting?

I don't understand this behavior from townies. But mafia "follow the dead" for false added credibility to their own erroneous votes. It should be a tell because town shouldn't do it... but they do....

You were FINE with coming up with your own suspects until now, when you'd be held most accountable for them. You haven't been following the dead's suggestions until this moment. You are trying to act all innocent, "just following suggestions...". Dude, this is the critical moment. You don't blindly follow a dead guy here.

I should have followed my own advice, and just let people decide on the final round. I could have been wrong on either of these two, after all. And if I am wrong and people listen to me, we get.... total mafia victory.

That's not why you voted for me. That's bull.... you just said that you voted me because a dead guy did. Now, it's a "feeler" vote?

Also more conclusive than the rest of it. I should have focused on his shifting reasons for voting for me, because it was obvious quicksand he couldn't stand on. I let it pass with only one comment... more was needed.

As for potential partners, would you like Lurker #1, Lurker #2, or Lurker #3 because they all seem identical to me.

What a dodge.

This was a dodge. I knew what woad was doing, which was to leave all his options open next round and avoid pissing off a townie. But his response proved that he wasn't even looking for suspects, because he had none.... literally, he had none, and not only that, said everyone else in the game was exactly the same.

No.... you'd have an impression to differentiate them if you were townie. Based on: voting patterns, posting behavior, post content, kill patterns.... something.

Not trying to prove anything, as it is done.... I am just trying to point this out as a subtle difference between mafia and town that is more reliable than usual.

Hand over your fangs, because you're clearly not predatory enough to use them.

Not necessary, at all, but I am still strongly considering sigging this line for emphasis. Woad is totally better than this as townie. When I see someone doing things they are CLEARLY better than as townie, I always point it out. I don't know why... I'm not sure how constructive it is... but at this point I was just hoping someone would see that woad was not being himself.

THE EYEROLL!!! THERE IT IS!!!

Oh how I've missed you mister eyeroll smiley.... I haven't seen you since every mafia I've ever accused.

Hold on, let me go grab it from Star Wars. Where's Subotan's quote?

"And apparently, ATPG is always right. "- Subotan.

Why is it you mafia always roll your eyes at me? Can you tell me this, because I really want to know. Townies don't roll their eyes at me because when I am wrong, they generally just state it. One or two argue with me defiantly, and some of them kick my butt at arguing because they aren't actually scum. Some knock the wind out of my sails with a single line that disproves everything I just said.

But no, the mafia struggle a bit, and when they get frustrated, it's EYEROLL TIME.

I'm not kidding though! This has happened SO MANY TIMES!

I'm genuinely curious, because a scum tell shouldn't be as simple as rolling your eyes at someone. What causes this?

I will say this much: The distancing vote between woad and Renata on round one, plus his incorrect vote on me this round, is indicative of their partnership. I would also suggest that it was indeed Renata who killed off Diana and Split, for very smart reasons.

You will all reverse your votes and place them on woad&fangs, now.

I don't have mind control abilities, but sometimes I like to pretend. Where's my danged "charisma" when I REALLY need it?

That's not the point. The point is, woad is definitely trying to get someone lynched, but he's basing it off of an erroneous dead guy.

COME ON, PEOPLE, you've been mafia before. Picture this.
It's the final round of the game. You're up against a still fairly large town, and it's a vanilla game. You're worried that accusations against people will backfire. You haven't actually been hunting mafia. So you don't have a case.
Your plan? Wait for someone to make a bad case.
Oh look, a dead guy says that pizza is guilty.... and he just voted for Renata.
Gotcha....
Now Renata, good or evil, will vote for Pizza. With the added weight of Pinman's accusation, the lynch cannot possibly fail. All you have to do is vote for this guy, and the game is over.
How could you, as mafia, possibly resist this move?
Think about it. You're not giving me a fair shake, and you're ignoring what is OBVIOUSLY the scummiest move in the game.

I was hoping this would ring true to someone. It does follow, does it not? Or am I crazy? I know people didn't exactly buy/fully understand my "mafia ESP" theory, but this one seems more intuitive.

You have nothing to lose by merely considering my suggestion. Do you guys consider yourselves mafia players, or casual fanboys? This is the big leagues, the vanilla games, where you don't get help. You have to guess based on subtlety, and on psychology, on murder patterns, and on votes. I am even giving you a big hint, this current path loses the game for the town. Consider that I am telling the truth, while you have the time and can afford to, and GO BACK and re-read the thread until you see what I am saying.

Please.

Bold: QFT

This is why I love vanilla games. Pure and simple. I hate detectives, they RUIN the fun and mystery of the game, IMO.

Also: I don't think I plead like this when I am scum... I don't think? Anyone know an instance of me doing this as scum, point it out to me for a free pizza.

You're on your own. Re-think the situation, and give pizza a fighting chance.

Be the pizzaguy. It's your turn to solve one.

I honestly thought this would move someone.... emotionally, logically, whatever. Nothing...

I pulled out everything in my playbook and failed. I clearly do not have the persuasive power I thought I had.

What did I do wrong? I obviously need to improve.

All I'll say is: The woad is a lie. The pizza isn't. *Applause in the courtroom*

I loves you Apreg.

Same for Beskar, Pinman (later on), Secura, and especially civplayah. Most of the peeps in my camp were dead though...

You were offline and there was only a little bit of time left; I could have worded it better. I meant that I didn't think you would return.

vote: woad?

Round not over, but nearly over.... I am still trying.

I give myself this much: I don't really roll over and die the way I used to. It's more with the gnashing and clawing and screaming, lately.

No you shouldn't.

You should sig-ify where I accused you of being mafia.

Yes?

ATPG, if I may offer some advice...Try to focus on quality of evidence rather than quantity. I think the sheer amount of arguments you had against me worked in my favor because your weak/nonexistent cases against me made your good cases seem petty as well.

Noted.

Brevity is not something I do very well.

If I might offer you some advice, the tactics were fundamentally sound, but the execution left lots and lots of clues; and the partnership between you and Renata became too obvious to me by the end. That's risky. What if they had listened to me?

The above is my fallible opinion, take it as you will, don't read it if you don't want to.

[seireikhaan]

This is why I love vanilla games. Pure and simple. I hate detectives, they RUIN the fun and mystery of the game, IMO.

Also: I don't think I plead like this when I am scum... I don't think? Anyone know an instance of me doing this as scum, point it out to me for a free pizza.

Yay, I'm not the only one who can't stand detectives. Iirc, I haven't made a proper detective since my first game. Something to bear in mind for the future?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yay, I'm not the only one who can't stand detectives. Iirc, I haven't made a proper detective since my first game. Something to bear in mind for the future?

Not to hijack your thread with a different discussion, but a quick response.

Here are the positives about detectives;

• They can be used to give the town a fighting chance when the mafia are more numerous, or can recruit, or are otherwise overpowered, to even the odds.
• Person who gets detective role probably enjoys themselves even if they only survive a few rounds. Yay, I'm a detective!
• Person who scans the mafia early on feels good about themselves.

Here are the negatives about detectives:

• People trust their judgment, even when they come to the wrong conclusions, and end up just following obediently. Then the game is lost.
• Often times, no one but the detective and the mafia contribute anything of substance. The rest of the players are on auto-pilot.
• Traditional scum finding techniques such as vote pattern analysis, kill analysis, post analysis, and behavioral/tactical analysis goes out the window and those skills get rusty.
• Can find a mafia on N1 or N2 and then the game is pretty much usually over, leading to a short and anticlimactic game. Less fun for all.
• Certain notorious players can't catch a break and are almost always scanned right away. This leads to meta-gaming and less fun for certain player.
• There's no mystery. If I think Sasaki Kojiro is guilty, I have to come up with reasons why and argue him to death, or offer my head in exchange for his, or something. However, with a detective role I can claim detective and there's almost nothing Sasaki Kojiro can do. Therefore, clever and crafty players cannot weasel out of trouble. And so therefore, there's no real challenge, just lucky guesses. Either they've been scanned as guilty or they haven't, and then certain people get scanned, and then certain people get murdered.
• Player who lurks and is not a usual investigation target is more likely to win the game simply by coasting through and accidentally hitting the detective.
• Individual townies have less incentive to try to hunt for mafia, because they are waiting to be led. They are unwilling to lead.
• This breaks down the discussion a bit, and then it's harder to catch the mafia.

Ultimately, a detective is an overpowered weapon that can make or break a game based on one lucky scan. But once the scan is lucky, the lynch isn't about luck, or even skill.... it's simple point and click, mafia go squish now. I reveal, I'm detective, mafia dies. There's no real incentive for an individual to try hard. As townie, if you're not the detective, your opinion matters for a few rounds until the detective reveals, and then you don't matter anymore. If you're mafia, you can try hard and just get sweeped by a lucky detective. All your clever plans and tactics and charisma and skill mean nothing.... because someone scanned you.

Lame.

Then you get detectives who privately reveal, and have this other person reveal their scans for them. And then the mafia can't really hit back. This is fine in a game like Capo III when there are 20 scumbags at a given time and investigations aren't very conclusive and there's too many mafia to hit all at once, so they can walk around openly for a while, even work together. But without some kind of massive advantage given to the mafia, detectives are overpowered, unnecessary, and not fun. At least with a vigilante when you guess wrong, an innocent person dies. A double-edged sword.

But yeah, you're not alone. 100% accurate detectives have their place, but they are too commonplace.