Yup, Orin Kerr is delivering a very gussied-up and well-dressed version of the slippery slope fallacy.
Meanwhile, going back to the notion that the Prop 8 supporters pretty much threw the trial, here's a little hard data:
Challengers of Proposition 8 presented 17 witnesses at the trial. ProtectMarriage called only two, and those witnesses made several damaging concessions during cross-examination. In his ruling overturning Proposition 8, Walker complained about the dearth of evidence from ProtectMarriage.
A little more detail:
ADF CANCELLED all of their pertinent witnesses except two: David Blankenhorn and William Tam.
Proponents elected not to call the majority of their designated witnesses to testify at trial and call not a single official proponent of Proposition 8 presented to voters and the arguments presented in court. [...]
Both witnesses were deemed completely unacceptable by the judge. They had no pertinent academic credentials and they both had ties to the George Reeker scandal as well. When asked about sources for a statement, William Tam gave one of the most anemic answers in trial history "I found it on the internet."
While they were supposedly acting as proponents for the State of California (NOT Protect Marriage), they did nothing to prove that the State of California would be harmed in any way by same-sex marriages. NOTE: Judge Walker has been known to weigh heavily on economic impact in cases like these. They certainly didn't do their homework.
[...] the defense folded before everyone's eyes.
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