Mori, the Road to Kaga, take 2 (1550)

[TWD]

Round 3. 4 turns, up to winter 1552 (got confused last time, year changes during the spring).
Objective : secure Tosa/Iyo.
Harima may fall in the hands of the Rebels but Aki and Bizen must hold.

Winter 1551.
Build orders and trainings :
Aki starts 4 YA. Mori needs numbers and can't afford quality right now.
Bizen starts 1 YA. The Tea house will complete next season and then Shinobis will be trained.
--> 500/1374 kokus.
Troop movements :
1YA is shipped from Aki to Bizen.
2YA from Bizen go garrison Sanuki.
The Daymio and the army in Sanuki invade Awa, aiming for Tosa next season.
To strenghten Bizen a bit, a YA there swaps with the Naginata in Harima.
There's a port in Owari, now, but the Emissary heads to Shinano to have a better view of what clan owns what province. Which means that Oda is preferred to Shimazu as the second ally. Shimazu would be fine but I'd rather not give him so much income that he can expand to my borders super quickly. Oda, on the other hand, typically has a lot of troubles fighting the Rebels.

Spring 1552.
Bingo is lost to the Rebels. Peasants revolt in Harima... Errr...
Awa is conquered without a fight.
The Tea house in Bizen is completed.

Build orders and trainings :
Mori starts building border watch towers in Bizen. As soon as the south will be secured, expansion from there will restart.
3 shinobis are ordered in Bizen.
--> 800/1174 kokus.

Troop movements :
The SA and YA stationned in Harima retreat to Bizen. No point in fighting there.
2YA from Bizen go garrison Sanuki.
2 YA from Sanuki go garrison Awa.
The Daymio's army invades Tosa.



In the east, Imagawa owns Totomi, Mikawa and Suruga ; Hojo has Sagami and Musashi ; Uesugi holds Echigo and Kozuke. Omi is a rebel province and our emissary is sent there.

Summer 1552.



The Rebels in Tosa (60) retreat in the castle. Mori pillages 325 kokus. The province has a swordsmith and a spear dojo.
Rebels from Iyo (121) invade Sanuki (120). They are a 1 star general YA, a SA unit and a lone YA. A combined charge of Mori king runners decimates their leading unit, following soon in the retreat of their whole army. Losses : 26. Unlocked the Legendary swordsman event, not that Mori needs it...
Harima is lost to the Rebels.

Troop movements :
In the east, Oda doesn't seem to own a lot. The emissary is sent to Owari.
The shinobi from Bizen goes to Sanuki. The first 4 shinobis will contribute to the island's loyalty. Hopefully, taxes will be raised soon.
Securing Tosa and Iyo now would be a good move. The army in Iyo is depleted thanks to the successful defense of Sanuki.
Hence, Lord Mori, 30 YS and 60 YA assault Tosa's castle.
The 4 stars Horse archer leads the Naginata cavalry and 30 YA from Sanuki against Iyo.
A YA from Aki reinforces Bizen while a YA from Bizen goes garrison Sanuki.

Autumn 1552.
The battles for Tosa and Iyo were pretty easy.
On the other hand, Bizen was invaded by 1SA, 2YS and a YA unit coming from Bitchu and Harima. Fortunately the rebels didn't send their whole troops. The defense was successful, our YA unit taking most of our losses (around 50, including 30 or so YA) :



In the east, our emissary found Lord Oda. He has a massive army of around one thousand men but holds only one province.
In the west, Lord Shimazu conducts a siege against Bungo's castle. Mori made it just in time to secure Shikoku.
Other news : the mine complex in Aki and the farm in Sanuki were completed. Income is coming ! As well we finished the border watch towers in Bizen. After a successful defense, the neighbouring armies aren't really impressive.
With shinobis incoming, the tax level is raised to normal.

Build orders and trainings :
With 699 unused kokus, there is some margin to start new buildings :
A mine is started in Iyo and a YA is ordered in Tosa.
--> 800/899 kokus.

Troops movements :
Shinobis : Bizen --> Sanuki --> Iyo (lowest loyalty).
The emissary in Owari approachees Lord Oda for an alliance.
Lord Mori falls back to Awa and the 4 stars general to Sanuki. The latter should go back to Aki for retraining. YA units take their place in the west.

Winter 1552.
That was a calm season.
Lord Oda accepted our alliance proposal. No invasion occured.
New treasury : 2198 kokus.
Lowest loyalty province : Awa (90%).
Takeda has made peace with Imagawa, which means no there is no war anymore amongst the major clans. Shall Mori seek a new alliance ? With who ? Is it safe to ally Shimazu and/or leave him in peace ?



Rich land is secured (total income 2900 ; total expenses 660), so it is probably the right time to start farming heavily.
Where to expand next ? Harima or Kawachi (via Awaji, of course) ? What about Bitchu ? I would like Mori to control central Japan as soon as possible.

See you in 1553.
TWD.

[ReluctantSamurai]

The biggest strategical decision, as I see it, is whether to leave Shimazu uncontested on your southern flank, or strike for richer lands further north. My own personal preference is to avoid two-front wars, but ironically, my favorite faction to play (Oda) is always involved in them

With a 1550 starting date, and Shimazu's tendency to be the first AI faction to accept Christianity, you will likely be facing the arquebus at some point, which in itself isn't a big deal, but if you are still employing lots of YA, they could present a morale problem.

At the least, I'd send scads of shinobi into Shimazu lands to create rebellions, and a ninja to deal with the higher honor generals that result....something to keep him busy, for the moment. An alliance with Shimazu is sure to lead to war, as you will have common borders in two places, eventually.........

So when do the first sohei appear?

[TWD]

Thank you for your input, Reluctant Samurai :)

Oda is also the faction I'm the most used to, even though that's in the easy SJ campaign. Hence the heavy number of YA I train, I guess.
Sohei... They cost 375 kokus and the temple is especially expensive, so I need more income to afford them. I can see a temple started in 1553-4 and warrior monks in the field from 1555... No sooner, I'm affraid.
Right now, a few SA units are what I feel I need the most.

@Shimazu :
Lucid points :) Sending shinobis in his peninsula to delay him sounds like the best solution. I'm not keen on using my still light military to fight him when Harima/Kawachi/Yamashiro/Kii/Ise are uncontested.
I'm not used to gunpowder fights... How to best deal with teppos ? Regular (flanking) charges ?

[Gregoshi]

Very nice write ups TWD. I look forward to more.

[TWD]

Thank you, Gregoshi,

Regarding the year 1553, I'll attempt the conquest of Bitchu (4men, honour -1 general), Harima (3 units) & Kawachi (3 units as well, I guess. At least there are 3 at the beginning of the campaign) a bit later in the day.
3rd and probably last alliance should be with Imagawa.

I noticed I have 2 SA units in Aki, so one could move. There's also the castle of Suo I left unchecked for several seasons, now. I hope I can gain some kokus if I send an invasion force, there.
The budget is still quite tight and income remains my primary concern for now (a mine in Harima and farms in Tosa, Sanuki, Kawachi & Bitchu already amounts to a 1600 kokus investment...). Fortunately, I'll have some ashigaru reinforcements from Shikoku now that the island is secured, so maybe I don't need to train a load of units this year.

@Sohei again : I guess I need a net income of 3000-4000 kokus to afford the buddhist temple. If the above objectives are met, then starting it in 1554 and recruiting a few WM in 1555 should be tight but doable.

[ReluctantSamurai]

The budget is still quite tight and income remains my primary concern for now

Always the early problem with Mori

A suggestion, if I might, about farm & mine upgrades......

I once did a mathematical analysis of the return rate on upgrades, but for the life of me, I can't find it Basically, if a province yields 200 koku or less, it takes 20 years or more just to return your original investment. Hardly worth it. Farms in the 250-350 koku range are worth a single upgrade; 350-450 a second upgrade, and anything above that is worth the maximum. If you have excess koku, as is usually the case much later in a campaign, you can go back and apply more upgrades as you see fit.

A similar situation applies to mines. Copper mines are hardly worth the mine-complex, silver mines when you have koku to spare, and gold mines always.

I tend to build a lot of ports. I guess that's a by-product of playing lots of Oda campaign's where I want multiple training centers for teppo Since your main training center is in Aki, at the moment, I might consider a port in Iyo (to be able to transfer troops there quickly in case Shimazu gets aggressive) and one in Kawachi (when you get there, of course). This would connect your seat of power in Aki with both ends of your empire. The 200 koku income per port will return your original 750 investment+50 in 4 years, which is excellent. But that's just me......

Personally, I'd leave Suo to the rebels, for the moment. The province is dirt poor, and if you don't plan on keeping it, you will likely just create a much larger rebel force when you leave. And at expert setting, the AI will more than likely nestle into that big, commanding, wooded hill in the center of the map that can't be flanked, making for you an uphill battle all the way. Not so great with YA...........Suo and Nagato can be a short-term buffer against Shimazu, as well.

Heading north to Kawachi, and securing Harima would be my primary, short-term goals.

As to dealing with teppo, you probably won't be facing muskets anytime soon, even if Shimazu accepts the Portuguese offer. Arquebus are much shorter range and can be dealt with by using SA. Cavalry will chew them up pretty quick, as well. Against a human player, cavalry is a bit dicey because they will likely be covered by spears, but the AI, even at Expert setting doesn't handle them well and will often leave them exposed.

Anyway, looking promising, so far......

[TWD]

Round 4. To winter 1553.
With Shikoku secured, the goal for this round is to conquer rich provinces, namely Bitchu, Harima and Kawachi. Mori already has 3 castles and only needs more farms/mines to accelerate its conquest of Japan.

Winter 1553.
Given the high level of loyalty, taxes are set to high for this season.
Build orders and trainings :
I would like to keep 1000 spare kokus for infrastructure in Harima-Kawachi-Bitchu. This leaves 1198 kokus to toy with.
Farms are started in Tosa and Sanuki.
A shinobi is ordered in Bizen an 1 YA in each of Tosa and Aki.
--> 900/ 2198 kokus.

Troop movements :
A lot of unit shuffling, here.
First, the shinobis take position in Tosa, Awa and Sanuki.
Second, 1 YA from Tosa goes to Awa while the other 2 go in Iyo. In Iyo a 2 stars general remain and the other YA goes garrison Sanuki.
The Daymio in Awa and the Naginata cavalry from Sanuki invade Awaji island while the remaining forces in Sanuki fall back to Bizen, aiming for Harima next.
A SA from Aki also is shipped to Bizen and a 3 stars general in Bizen is sent to take over Bitchu's bridge.
Finally, the emissary in Owari is sent to Mikawa, in search for lord Imagawa.



Spring 1553.
Bitchu and Awaji were conquered without a fight. Unfortunately, it seems the rebels in Awaji retreated behind Kawachi's bridge rather than in Harima's flatland...
Taxes are back to low.

Build orders and trainings :
2 YA are ordered in Aki.
A farm is started in Bitchu.
--> 450/1298 kokus.

Troop movements :
The YA from Tosa goes reinforce Iyo.
Both YA units in Sanuki and Awa go garrison Awaji while the shinobi from Sanuki is sent back to Bizen (aiming for Harima/Bitchu).
63 YA and the Naginata from Bizen are sent in Bitchu (20% loyalty).
The Daymio's 140 men meet with a SA from Bizen in Harima.
Finally, a YA from Aki is shipped to Bizen, swapping with a shinobi (aiming for Suo), and the emissary continues its way to Totomi.

Summer 1553.
The rebels made their moves ! They emptied Harima to invade Bizen.



The attack was easily repelled (hill archers rule) but this will delay the arrival of our SA in Kawachi... hum...
Which is more a force sallies from Kawachi and takes on Awaji ! 2YA and a SA against Mori's 2 YA... That is a bloody battle but a victory !



Of course, Harima is taken without a fight and... a good news shines upon the clan : an heir is born ! Will Japan be united before he matures ?
Taxes are set to very low. Harima is at 46%...

Build orders and trainings :
A mine is started in Harima. Security is needed.
--> 600/948 kokus.

Troop movements :
The emissary in Totomi finds Imagawa and proposes him an alliance.
Shinobis : Aki --> Suo, Awa --> Awaji and Bizen --> Bitchu. Just as planned.
A YA from Aki is sent to Bizen.
Now... This is summer and Kawachi should be invaded. However Harima and Bizen can't be left unprotected... It would also look bad if the rebels decided to invade Awaji... What to do ? What to do ? Net income amounts to 2500 koku a year (very low taxes)...

The answer is simple : here's the time to gamble !
Another YA is shipped from Aki to Bizen (remain 2YA and a SA in Aki).
A YA from Iyo is sent to Awa. Those aren't the frontlines, right, but my concern here is primarily to be able to stop the rebels, should they avoid a fight on the frontlines and attempt to break through.
The 3 stars SA in Bitchu falls back to Bizen. The force that defended Bizen this season goes protect Harima. And, finally, all forces in Harima and Awaji invade Kawachi.



Autumn 1553.
Shimazu is invading Chikugo/Bungo... We still have some time before he becomes a threat.
We invade Kawachi on a foggy day : 201 vs 146. Without any ranged units, our Daymio drew the ennemy fire while WM forbid us to cross the bridge (lost 6). Then Mori lured the sohei on our side of the bridge to decimate them. The rest of the battle was an easy matter.



Yet some good news : Imagawa accepts our offer of alliance !
Mori's total income amounts to 4600 kokus with punitive taxes and 4000 with very low taxes. Total expenses are 720 kokus... Nice !
Minor point : the spy in Suo reveals 2 units and a Spear Dojo... Maybe next year Mori will pillage it.

Build orders and trainings :
A farm is started in Kawachi.
--> 250/348 kokus.

Troop movements :
The emissary in Totomi is shipped to Owari. He will scout the rebels' lands (Yamashiro). For now, Kii, Yamato and Iga are undefended !
The shinobi in Suo falls back to Aki's port.
The YA in Awa retreats to Iyo now that the eastern border is secured.
Finally, 60 SA from Harima swap with 60 YA in Kawachi.

Winter 1553.
Peasants revolt in Kawachi.
New treasury is 3443 kokus.

The lay of the land :





Situation looks good.
I guess Aki, Tosa and Bizen will produce troops at their maximum capability next year.
It will also be possible to enhance the infrastructure (don't worry about the sohei, Reluctant Samurai, the Buddhist temple won't be off schedule).

Cheers,
TWD.

[TWD]

A suggestion, if I might, about farm & mine upgrades......

I once did a mathematical analysis of the return rate on upgrades, but for the life of me, I can't find it Basically, if a province yields 200 koku or less, it takes 20 years or more just to return your original investment. Hardly worth it. Farms in the 250-350 koku range are worth a single upgrade; 350-450 a second upgrade, and anything above that is worth the maximum. If you have excess koku, as is usually the case much later in a campaign, you can go back and apply more upgrades as you see fit.

Hum... I've never played vanilla Shogun but I've seen that the prices of the buildings were higher. Maybe that's where your thoughts/fears come from ?
A 20% increase out of 200 kokus is +40 kokus a year. If the farm costs 250 kokus, it will pay off in around 6 years.
That's ok with me.
Another thing that is not apparent if you just calculate your return of investment is that boosting your income, even if if does not pay off in the short run, gives you : additional security and a margin to manoeuver.
e.g. you need to pay for units upkeep. Say you have 500 kokus and lose 20 kokus a year. No big deal, right ? There's a reserve. But you can't invest in anything either. Or you could invest in a farm that would not pay for itself but stop the bleeding.
There are also good and bad seasons. And also it is ok to recruit cheap units at the beginning of a campaign, but later on, you may want to recruit something more expensive. In those situations, saving money isn't sufficient, increasing your income is better :) Or so would I guess.

I tend to build a lot of ports.

Agreed, the port is good. But I tend to consider it is broken, because the AI SHOULD do port attacks while it does not.
Therefore... I'm not enthusiastic at the idea to spam ports.

@Suo : I'm not interested in keeping the province.
Ideally, they would retreat in the castle, then take back the province when I would leave. But... yes, I can see your point.

Thanks for the rest. Especially the gunpowder part.
TWD.