It is 3.00 a.m here and I cannot sleep (too much adrenaline) - definetely a day off tomorrow... i.e. today. ;)
I will post a detailed report to Tuesday, but some first thoughts right now.
It was exceptional in many ways with numerous factors affecting the voters' choice.
1. The 10th April tragedy gave enormous moral boost to nationalist right ('martyr myth' - completely unreasonable for a person who did nothing else but died in a communication accident, but that is how it goes),
2. Very well constructed and followed campaign gave Law and Justice unexpected number of votes.
3. Center-right Civic Platform chose their candidate earlier and unlike the deceased president and a vice-speaker of the Sejm Szmajdziński he wan't killed in the crash.
4. Civic Platform's campaign was muted and poorly organised.
It would work with 'old' Jarosław Kaczynski, but was inadequate and frankly it was one, huge disaster. Sławomir Nowak was good for 2007 parliamentay elections when prime minister's Tusk victory in a debate, ruthlessness of Law and Justice and massive voters' anger could be exchanged into solid support for currently ruling Civic Platform.
5. Law and Justice and Jaroslaw Kaczynski exploited opportunity given by national mourning to deflect any possible criticism as 'immoral attacks' and created the image of Jarosław as a 'changed man'. Hiding him from unfriendly media helped a lot.
One might notice how amazing was their ability to exploit anything which people consider sacred and how Mr. Kaczynski and his 'transformation' was scripted and staged.
The theater metaphore is most suitable in this case. 'Old' divisive, annoying, aggressive, insulting Jarosław was concealed and really - everyone likes spectacular changes - from villian to a decent man. So it worked.
6. Public TV and radio are in hands of Law and Justice and Left Democratic Alliance and supported both Mr. Kaczynski and the candidate of the left Grzegorz Napieralski.
According to a study made by Batory Foundation (think-tank) Mr. Komorowski - candidate of the Civic Platfom - ws the only one who was shown in negative way for the whole time.
Because public media were protected by the deceased president, or rather Law and Justice influence in them was protected - so were 'friendly journalists' of the party, for them it was a mortal struggle to save their future and protectors.
Really - they've reached thee level of 1980s communist TV with its stupid manipulations. For example quite recently they've managed to screen news which portraited a short part of a satirical series as a real brutal attack against Jarosław Kaczynski ('I will kill (...) Jarosław' - said a prominent depute from the Civic Platform).
7. Jarosław Kaczynski won the second presidential debate, though the fact that (allegedly) he knew some questions (from a journalist associted with his party) helped him a bit. His victory might discourage some voters to support anybody, especially his opponent.
8. Two floods which devastated a part of Poland transformed into anger against ruling Civic Platform despite unprecedented level of support from Warsaw. Not everywhere, but gave a couple of percent of support.
9. A sizable part of Catholic Church in Poland supported Jarosław Kaczynski starting with the fateful burial at the Wawel which noone is willing to present as his idea now. The decision was widely criticised, but criticism was weakened by prolonged (vulcano eruptions in Iceland) national mourning and floods.
10. Democratic Left Alliance's candidate Napieralski decided not to support anybody in the second turn suggesting tha both candidates are 'equally poor choices'. It was criticised by his opponents with accusations that he is actually betting for Kaczyński's victory which would make himself and his party invaluable in opposing presidential vetoes, but at the cost of infighting for next 5 years.
Mr. Napieralski's fascination with the way how Mr. Kaczynski is controlling his party (virtually single handedly and with no independent voices or opposition, even vocal) is a very well known secret.
11. Holiday season decreased number of votes from larger and smaller towns and cities while other factors boosted support in the countryside - traditional 'bastion' of conservative voters.
12. There were also some local factors e.g. Opener Festival in Gdynia increased the number of votes from this area while support from trade unions given Mr. Kaczynski boosted his position in Lubin-Polkowice and Konin areas in western Poland. Respect and support for left-wing politician Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz resulted in sizable (and abnormal) support for Mr. Komorowski in north-east Poland - the candidate this respected ex-prime minister announced as his personal choice.
13. Mr. Kaczynski's sudden and suprising praise of late comunist first secretary Edward Gierek (who enjoyes some respect from the 1970s which are sometimes described as a golden decade - before the credits he borrowed were spent on consumer goods and the country bankrupted resulting in the rise of Solidarity and the martial law) both might gain votes from post-communist voters and scared off some anti-communist supporters.
To some it was like the ultimate proof that the man cannot be trusted and will do anything, even praise an incompetent politician from authoritarian plitical system.
14. Finally the choice of Mr. Komorowski as a candidate (solid, honourable, but sooo boring) might discourage many younger voters who would vote for Mr. Sikorski - the Foreign Affairs minister of Poland, but the decision was made before 10th April when the now deceased president enjoyed very high place in unpopularity contrests.
Mr. Sikorski however is a very good minister and Poland needs him in 2011 + he still has time and works well with prime minister Donald Tusk.
My main conclusion is - it was a close one, but so favourable situation will never repeat itself so it will mean slow death of Law and Justice.
Kaczynski 'the changed man' act will end because it started falling apart in the last week of the campaign and the public TV will lose protection of 'their' president and election season now.
Situation is not too clear, because Left Democratic Alliance (which Mr. Kaczynski managed to declare as no longer post-communist) might try allying itself with Law and Justice or Law and Justice might not survive this defeat, but the big step was made.
Poland should be ready for delayed big reforms and to finally use its full weight in the EU.
More later, with maps and detailed comentaries.
And big sigh of relief from me.![]()
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