The Swedish election

[Shibumi]

My first post in the backroom, so play nice people...

Anyway, Sweden just had its election, and all the votes were just counted and published.

This election has been historical for two reasons:
1. For the first time in umptish years the socialists/Socialdemokraterna have lost two elections in a row, showing a more general shift in the political climate.
2. For the first time, a anti-immigration party got voted in, The Swedish Democrats/Sverigedemokraterna - now at 5,7% - well above the 4% threshold to enter parliament.


My thoughts on this?

First of all, the formerly oh so socialistic Sweden has followed the general right wing trend in Europe. Society at large has become more cold, and more people vote with their wallets. Part of the right wings success in Sweden is possibly due to the sitting governments handling of the financial crisis. Sweden came out of it with head held high and sound finances compared to most of the rest of Europe, showing that the right wing could handle the economy in a responsible way.

Another reason for the rights success this election might well be the fact that the left wings candidate for prime minister is commonly disliked. A lot of former leftist voters cant see themselves voting for her. The fact that she is a woman might have had some impact too, although in my eyes probably slim, as Sweden has come a long way of acknowledging the abilities of women.


So, the Swedish Democrats then. The reason why they made it in to parliament is caused by 3 main factors:
1. Fear of muslims.
2. Ghettos and general immigration problem.
3. The fact that no other party even acknowledge Sweden has an immigration problem.

This again follows the general trend in Europe, in fact, Sweden is one of the last countries to get a anti-immigration party voted in.

It will be interesting to see how the debate will change now Sweden has a anti-immigration party, as before this political line had no space in the public debates in the different forms of media. I think this might very well open up the flood gate so to say, and it is not unlikely that this part will double its size till the next election now they have a voice in the public space.


The election in numbers
(Seats in parliament)

Right wing:
The Moderates - 107
The Center Party - 22
The Liberals - 24
The Christian Democrats - 19
All in all: 172 seats

Left wing:
The Social Democrats - 113
The Left - 19
The Green Party - 25
All in all: 157

Others
The Swedish Democrats - 20


This is more interesting than some might think, and will create quite a fuss.

As you might see, none of the blocks (left or right) has enough seats to get in power (have more than 50% of the seats). One might think that this could easily be solved by joining up with The Swedish Democrats, but, none of the other parties will collaborate with them, alienating them completely from the political scene (freezing them out, playground style).

So there are a few possibilities as to how this will end.

1. The right wing will try and get The Green Party on their side. This is pretty unlikely though, as The Green Party has very much been campaigning with the left. Switching side might be political suicide, as they will lose a LOT of their voters in coming elections.
2. The left wing will get one of the right wing parties to switch, this is even more unlikely, for the very same reason.
3. The right wing will govern without being in majority, being forced to haggle for every proposition. This would be a hellish situation for them, and it would make them (indirectly) dependent on the anti-immigration party they have sworn not to get support from.
4. Call for re-election. The right wing, as the biggest block, now has 3 months to sort this mess out. If it is not fixed in 3 months, a re-election will be held. This might well happen, although it is in no ones interest, save the anti-immigration party, who then would get to campaign as any other party, with a whole other set of funds (most of the debates are held in the state controlled television, and only for parties in parliament, so The Swedish Democrats have been excluded up until now. Also, as a party in parliament you get access to the state funds for campaigning).


All in all, an interesting situation! How this gets sorted will have a huge impact on Sweden's future. I will try and keep you all updated.

Me? I voted for The Swedish Democrats. I am no big fan of them, but I do believe we have a immigration problem, and they are the only party to address it. I guess I mainly voted for them to get the question of immigration into the political debate, rather than any fondness for their politics.

[Fragony]

Surprised the SD did so poorly. But it's good they made it in some questions can't be ignored. Next elections are going to be more interesting

welcome to the backroom by the way

[Shibumi]

Am not sure they did so poorly. Sure, 5,7% isn't a landslide, but in the election 2006 they only had 2,9%. So I guess it depends on perspective, you can see them as "only" getting 5,7%, or you could say that they doubled their size.

Also remember that this is in Sweden, the political debate is mainly done in state controlled media, and what isnt state controlled is usually tagging along the bigger channels regardless. So, for a party completely shushed down to get more than one vote out of twenty is rather well done.

And as mentioned, this is the beginning, they will probably grow in size and support now they are sitting in parliament and can get their issues discussed properly.

Thank you for the welcome :)

[Fragony]

As long as the other parties are too leftist to understand that you can't have a welfare state and mass immigration and claw out the eyeballs of those that do SD is going to be in safe spot. Our equivalent has become the biggest party in the polls at least, it helps that debates are broadcasted here, they simply don't have an answer and the godwins are getting boring, it's the only thing they know but such moral blackmail just doesn't work anymore. Pleased to see Sweden has a decent ant-immigration party, we don't want scum like Front National or BNP

[Ironside]

Pleased to see Sweden has a decent ant-immigration party, we don't want scum like Front National or BNP

We don't. Their integration policy is self declared non-existant (since the current one is poor) outside that immigrants should assimilate fully, several of the mandate competing members are racists, got nazi funding+connections (originated as a nazi party, now gone "clean"). All other policies are based on that kicking out the immigrants is going to give wast amount of money and that improving the Swedish proudness and morality will solve the rest. Basically as soon as you get them outside that thin layer of patina, they drop from a anti-immigration party to something worse.

And the rest of their politics is not exactly much to cheer for either. For starters, more christian conservative than the Christian democrats, general tax cuts and increased nationalisation of companies.

Basically they are lye to cure a sour throat.

[Fragony]

I can kinda sympathise with them having no solutions, the rest of them never had a problem, bit much to ask for. No reaction at all is a bit much to ask for, but they certainly don't sound as bad as previously mentioned party's, more like populists rather than extreme right.

[CountArach]

Welcome to the Backroom

Also remember that this is in Sweden, the political debate is mainly done in state controlled media, and what isnt state controlled is usually tagging along the bigger channels regardless. So, for a party completely shushed down to get more than one vote out of twenty is rather well done.

You seem to be confusing state controlled with state owned. State media in Sweden (and indeed throughout the Western World) is simply subsidised by the government as opposed to being actively controlled by them. As such to claim that there was a systematic attempt by the media to shut them out of the debate on behalf of the govermnet of the day is warping the truth. Could it be that they were excluded from public debate because their ideas are simply worthy of a lunatic fringe?

[Strike For The South]

Start exporting your wimmenz

[Louis VI the Fat]

So Sweden has followed the example of Belgium and the Netherlands.*

Once the world's most stable societies, rock solid social-democracies ('more or less'), they are now all firmly destabilised by an irresponsible electorate. Populist, volatile (a single voter may swap from Maoist to Christrian Democrat to Extreme Right over the course of three election cycles). I blame the demise of the great ideologies.
It will prove to be near impossible to form a government in any of these countries. They are now in effect ungovernable.

*And somewhat the UK. The UK is still governable, because owing to its electoral system, only three parties gained any meaningful amount of seats, and the other seats mostly allied to larger parties or abstain. Even so, the UK too has now got a hung parliament.




And muslims muslims muslims...
I am so sick and tired of European public debate being singularly obsessed by Muslims. Lord knows I'm no friend of the multicultural society, but there are other subjects too.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Start exporting your wimmenz

Oh, but you can just go to Sweden and rape any blond woman you want, with impunity.


So says the Swedish Fascist Party Amnesty International: http://www.thelocal.se/19124/20090428/


Sweden has gone from lowest on the scale of sexual violence to the very highest in Europe. The whole world dreams of blond Scandinavian girls, and predatory foreign men have now turned Sweden into some sort of Eastern Congo for rape statistics.

[Strike For The South]

So Sweden has followed the example of Belgium and the Netherlands.*

Once the world's most stable societies, rock solid social-democracies ('more or less'), they are now all firmly destabilised by an irresponsible electorate. Populist, volatile (a single voter may swap from Maoist to Christrian Democrat to Extreme Right over the course of three election cycles). I blame the demise of the great ideologies.
It will prove to be near impossible to form a government in any of these countries. They are now in effect ungovernable.

*And somewhat the UK. The UK is still governable, because owing to its electoral system, only three parties gained any meaningful amount of seats, and the other seats mostly allied to larger parties or abstain. Even so, the UK too has now got a hung parliamen

Meh, such is life. What is there left to talk about in Sweden.

-No forigen policy to speak of
-Everyone agrees on health care
-Everyone agress on all social issues (gays, abortion, etc)

If that was the case in America I would've started taking potshots at Mexicans circa 2005

And muslims muslims muslims...
I am so sick and tired of European public debate being singularly obsessed by Muslims. Lord knows I'm no friend of the multicultural society, but there are other subjects too.

Like Gypsies.

Oh, but you can just go to Sweden and rape any blond woman you want, with impunity.


So says the Swedish Fascist Party Amnesty International: http://www.thelocal.se/19124/20090428/


Sweden has gone from lowest on the scale of sexual violence to the very highest in Europe. The whole world dreams of blond Scandinavian girls, and predatory foreign men have now turned Sweden into some sort of Eastern Congo for rape statistics

Young drunk women are vunrable?!?!?!!?!?

TO THE LAB THERE IS WORK TO BE DONE.

[HoreTore]

Hopefully, Sveigedemokratarna will be ignored for the next 4 years. If not, you're all welcome to join the rest of the Swedes who have fled over the borde to us these last four years, because of Moderatarnas "hugely succesful economic policy"... I find it utterly hilarious that whenever the conseervatives take control in Norway, we flee to the other side of the border. When they take control in Sweden, you do the same....

And CountArach, you're wrong about state influence on the media, as he was talking about SVT(our version, NRK, is the same), which isn't a subsidized company, but a completely state owned and controlled media. All theyir money comes from the state, other sources of income are in fact banned. The CEO is politically appointed by Riksdagen. Their programming guidelines are made in Riksdagen. Any major changes are decided in Riksdagen. It is not simply a case of a harmless subsidy(though other media in sweden gets just that).

Though, it could be argued that it isn't so much state controlled as Labour controlled....

Louis, you disappoint me. The rapists who get away are usually the ethnic swedish kind, the infamous nachspiel rapist. Ie. The one the woman knows, it might be a good friend or even a boyfriend. In these cases, it's extremely hard to find someone guilty, it's usually word against word as violence is rare.

The rape cases where women are raped on the street are extremely rare(the kind whe foreigners are the majority), always reported to the police, almost always solved and the rapists is always found guilty. Women are dumbere than usual when the subject of rape comes up, as I always point out to my female friends; they shouldn't fear being raped when in a dark alley at night, they should be worried when they're having a beer alone at home with just me. They are scared when the odds are next to nothing of a rape happening, and they feel as safe as the bank when they really should worry about rape.

Meh, human nature...

Interesting side fact: what group is in the majority in womens crisis centres?

Foreign women.

With ethnic scandinavian husbands.

[drone]

I find it very disturbing that the Pirate Party did not get enough votes to get in Parliament, even though the election was held on ITLAP Day. Shiver me timbers...

[CountArach]

And CountArach, you're wrong about state influence on the media, as he was talking about SVT(our version, NRK, is the same), which isn't a subsidized company, but a completely state owned and controlled media. All theyir money comes from the state, other sources of income are in fact banned. The CEO is politically appointed by Riksdagen. Their programming guidelines are made in Riksdagen. Any major changes are decided in Riksdagen. It is not simply a case of a harmless subsidy(though other media in sweden gets just that).

Wow, that caught me off guard. Also: the Internet lied to me.

[Fragony]

Absolute rubbish about the rapes Horetore

[PanzerJaeger]

Good for the Swedish Democrats. Ignoring them will only broaden their appeal and enthuse their supporters to turn out next election.

[Lord of Lent]

Good for the Swedish Democrats. Ignoring them will only broaden their appeal and enthuse their supporters to turn out next election.

I agree. Just give them the respect they demand. The "underdog position" will only gain them more support/votes.

[Fragony]

After a bit of research not so sure about these guys anymore, think Ironside is right about them. Probably more extreme than they pretend to be, certainly more extreme than our flaming mozart

[Shibumi]

First of all, a small update:

The other political parties are spending their time with an advanced game of "pass the grenade". The grenade would be The Swedish Democrats (SD henceforth), and the detonation would be a possible re-election.

Basically, they pass SD around trying to make it some other parties problem, and no one wants to be seen as being the cause for a re-election. At the same time, no one is ready to make the political sacrifices needed to avoid a re-election.

Or to put it short, damned if you do, damned if you don't.



Fragony, you are right of your analyzis that the other parties spend their time with emotional arguments and Goodwin's. These efforts gets more and more bleak as SD comes with facts and figures.


Ironside, your comments seem very biased, to say the least. Have you actually read SDs political program? I assume you are Swedish? If you have read up on them, and not just read socialist media, I would welcome a discussion about their politics with you. A more elaborate one.


Countarach,

You seem to be confusing state controlled with state owned

As HoreTore said, mate. The government and the state media is not just in bed, they are siblings and in bed, creating a nasty situation best not to dwell upon ;)


Louis VI the Fat, some of the rape statistics are caused by the irresponsible intake of immigrants, sure. For sure, assault rape and gang rape is close to 100% committed by immigrants, mainly from ME-A. However, your statistics does lie a little bit, as you must also count the rise of feminism in Sweden, and medias campaign in the earlier this decade to have women report abuse. Rape is a hard crime to track, and I think some of the statistics can be explained by the fact that swedish girls are more inclined to go to the police, compared to in other countries. Sure immigration has caused an escalation in rapes, but what I would like to point out is, just how big is very very hard to track.

With this said, an African man is still several hundred pro cent more likely to commit rape.




Will come back soon when I have mroe time and answer more fully :)

[HoreTore]

Louis VI the Fat, some of the rape statistics are caused by the irresponsible intake of immigrants, sure. For sure, assault rape and gang rape is close to 100% committed by immigrants, mainly from ME-A.

Assault rapes account for like 10 rapes per year. They are indeed quite irrelevant when discussing rape.

I remember the "rape-wave" in january 2008. The media was in a frenzy, there was like 2 pages every day discussing the horrible rapes and how women should act in order to avoid them. How many rapes were committed? I think it was 4. Over a period of 2 months.


People don't get raped on the street, they get raped when they're having a coffee alone with a male friend.

Absolute rubbish about the rapes Horetore

Oh dear heavens! What a persuasive argument!! Of course, I now see the errors of my ways, please ignore everything I've said.

[Fragony]

awwwwwwwwwwww nasty, SD website is hacked and 5700 names put online. Police already said that SD members won't get protection from the antifa when they have a meeting, don't underestimate what the post-war resistance is capable of when they are all drugged up. That is how I know the red machine, system-lackeys and mob rule, long live the freedom of 100% ok speech [insert that Churchill quote]

@Horetore, you probably know it's bull, doesn't mean you have like it of course but you can't just decide that rape by the enrichers of Swedish culture is extremily rare. And they are rarely caught because the victims are too afraid for revenge.

[HoreTore]

Even our right-wing loonies won't touch 'em with a ten-foot pole.

Our resident fascists, however, loves 'em.

[Shibumi]

Assault rapes account for like 10 rapes per year. They are indeed quite irrelevant when discussing rape.

I remember the "rape-wave" in january 2008. The media was in a frenzy, there was like 2 pages every day discussing the horrible rapes and how women should act in order to avoid them. How many rapes were committed? I think it was 4. Over a period of 2 months.


People don't get raped on the street, they get raped when they're having a coffee alone with a male friend.



Oh dear heavens! What a persuasive argument!! Of course, I now see the errors of my ways, please ignore everything I've said.

Maybe in Norway. You also have way-y-y-y-y less immigrants.

We do not have statistics on reported assault rapes as such, the closest I could find was rapes outdoors.

Outdoors in 2009, we had about 1000 cases. That is just counting reported rapes (excluding attempted rapes) - outdoors - against women - in one year.

Check it out yourself, you can download the full rape statistics for 2009

[Fragony]

Nah it's the same in Norway http://www.aftenposten.no/english/lo...icle190268.ece

Also lol@sidefact by the way Horetore, these women sitting there are import brides and not of ethnic but of import, what the planet are you from, naturalised =/= ethnic, good thing someone helps them.

[HoreTore]

Maybe in Norway. You also have way-y-y-y-y less immigrants.

Nonsense. You have a little more, I believe we have around 7% and you have around 10%. Excluding all of you losers(70.000 I believe) who come into our country, taking all our jobs because your nation is so poor after your four years of conservative rule. DURKA DURR!!

We do not have statistics on reported assault rapes as such, the closest I could find was rapes outdoors.

Outdoors in 2009, we had about 1000 440 cases. That is just counting reported rapes (excluding attempted rapes) - outdoors - against women - in one year.

Check it out yourself, you can download the full rape statistics for 2009

I did. And I call lie again.

An outdoor rape isn't an assault rape, an outdoor rape is a rape that takes place outside a house, something quite different. And you happily discounted the fact that there were 5937 reported rapes in 2009 - only 440 of those were committed outside.

Then you can add in that assault rapes are always reported to the police, and as only 5-10% of the rapes are reported to the police, the black numbers belong in the friend-rape and pedobear category, neither of which are dominated by immigrants.

This report is simply more proof that the place you're most likely to get raped is at home, having a beer with an ethnic Swede you already know.

The report was quite clear on one thing though: during the period of 1995-2004, assault rapes(Överfallsvåldtäkter) went down.

[Shibumi]

outside rape, girl, below 15y of age -278
outside rape, girl, 15-17y of age - 197
outside rape, woman, 18+y of age - 440

278+197+440=915

Those are the numbers I draw from the statistics, sure you didnt miss some field matey? True, when I said "about 1000" I just did a quick skim, I was not so far off the mark though, certeanly closer than your 440.

You are right that 5937 rapes were reported all in all during 2009 all in all (men and women). You are also right that not every outside rape is an assault rape. However, we have no figures published on assault rapes, so as I already said, outside rape was closest I could find. Just how many of the 1kish outside rapes are assault rapes I do not know, but most def more than the 10 you claimed.

And yes, I agree, most rapes are commited when they both know each other. IE, husband raping wife.

Your logic is skewed though, when you say girls are more likely to be raped by a native Swede. Sure, you are right, given native swedes are 90% of the pop. Still doesnt change the fact that an African immigrant is several hundred procent more likely to commit rape than a native swede. Get my point?

However, it seems ludicrous to dig in to the rape argument, I am unsure why Louis brought it up.

We can end that part of the discussion with saying that immigrants are more likely than native swedes to rape, but we are unsure as to how much more unlikely as we dont have the numbers.

The reason I am against massimmigration such as the one we have in Sweden is not because of the rape statistics, but because of econonomical reasons (as well as crime). Not to mention we could spend the money way better helping refugees generally.

[HoreTore]

outside rape, girl, below 15y of age -278
outside rape, girl, 15-17y of age - 197
outside rape, woman, 18+y of age - 440

278+197+440=915

Those are the numbers I draw from the statistics, sure you didnt miss some field matey? True, when I said "about 1000" I just did a quick skim, I was not so far off the mark though, certeanly closer than your 440.

You are right that 5937 rapes were reported all in all during 2009 all in all (men and women). You are also right that not every outside rape is an assault rape. However, we have no figures published on assault rapes, so as I already said, outside rape was closest I could find. Just how many of the 1kish outside rapes are assault rapes I do not know, but most def more than the 10 you claimed.

And yes, I agree, most rapes are commited when they both know each other. IE, husband raping wife.

Your logic is skewed though, when you say girls are more likely to be raped by a native Swede. Sure, you are right, given native swedes are 90% of the pop. Still doesnt change the fact that an African immigrant is several hundred procent more likely to commit rape than a native swede. Get my point?

However, it seems ludicrous to dig in to the rape argument, I am unsure why Louis brought it up.

We can end that part of the discussion with saying that immigrants are more likely than native swedes to rape, but we are unsure as to how much more unlikely as we dont have the numbers.

The reason I am against massimmigration such as the one we have in Sweden is not because of the rape statistics, but because of econonomical reasons (as well as crime). Not to mention we could spend the money way better helping refugees generally.

You bring Pedobear rapes into this discussion...? I left them out for a reason, they have nothing to do with this discussion. The 15-17 age bracket might have a few relevant cases.

"Outside rapes" count rapes committed in cars, in public bathrooms, on field trips, etc etc. When we already know that most rapes are committed by someone the person already knows, I see no reason why that should be restricted to rapes committed indoors, the majority of rapes outside is likely to be committed by someone they know too. Let's say 3/4; that leaves 110 of the original 440 cases. But a big part is likely to be committed by people the victim just met, like a guy at a bar, for example, and they don't fit into the assault rape category either; let's say 50%. Now cut it in half to take into account Norway's population, and the end number is 30, which is in the area of "10 or so", like I said.

But hey, that doesn't fit in with the "darkies gonna get ya"-propaganda, I know.

Also, please prove the figure in the bolded part.

The fact remains that only a tiny percentage of the immigrant population is convicted of rape, and they are the group most likely to be convicted of rape(since new arrivals do not have big social networks, and cases with no relation between rapist and victim are the easiest to solve), so to judge and condemn the million completely innocent immigrants in Sweden due to the actions of a few thousand(at most) is utterly retarded.

Unfortunately, that does seem to be the mental state of the SD, so their behaviour is not surprising.

[Louis VI the Fat]

We can end that part of the discussion with saying that immigrants are more likely than native swedes to rape, but we are unsure as to how much more unlikely as we dont have the numbers.

Well for some rough indication, Frags was so kind as to provide some numbers. Albeit for Oslo and several years ago:

While 65 percent of those charged with rape are classed as coming from a non-western background, this segment makes up only 14.3 percent of Oslo's population. Norwegian women were the victims in 80 percent of the cases, with 20 percent being women of foreign background.

[HoreTore]

Well for some rough indication, Frags was so kind as to provide some numbers. Albeit for Oslo and several years ago:

While 65 percent of those charged with rape are classed as coming from a non-western background, this segment makes up only 14.3 percent of Oslo's population. Norwegian women were the victims in 80 percent of the cases, with 20 percent being women of foreign background.

Yes, and it's all highly irrelevant due to four factors:

- only 5-10% of rapes are reported and those with ethnic norwegian offenders are less likely to be reported, due to relations
- of those 5-10%, even fewer are reported and again, those with ethnic norwegian offenders are less likely to be convicted, due to relations
- "non-western" includes poles, lithuanians and other easstern euro's, who are not immigrants and have nothing to do with the immigration debate
- building on that: if we assume that in order to buy sex, you need to have a view that sex is a commodity you as a male both need and should be given, and that this attitude could also result in rapes, it is interesting to note that almost all sex buyers are ethnic norwegians and eastern european workers...



If you want a crime statistic, pick murder instead, we have a 95% conviction rate there.


Back on topic:

I'm hoping Sweden will find a Bondevik I solution...

[rory_20_uk]

Equally to sell sex you have to view it as a commodity...

Everything is a commodity. My time is costed to clients, my seniors time is costed to clients and is worth more.

And of course, rape unlike murder for example is not a clear cut issue. There isn't consensual murder. With an allegation of rape there are often two stories almost identical. One recollects they wanted to have sex, the other recollects they didn't. To what extent events post coitus have determined the view is something that is extremely difficult to discern. Possibly it is easier to report an event that occurred with an immigrant as the conviction is more likely and they'll have less support, but also there might be less acceptance of sleeping with an immigrant by one's peers.

A conviction rate is meaningless. You can easily get a 100% rate just by locking someone up for every murder. I assume you mean a 95 conviction rate with a very low rate of mistrials / successful appeals.