The Iranian Nuclear Programme

[Prince Cobra]

Well, I am just inquisitive what you people think about it. What are the plans of Iran and how far do you think the Islamic republic will go; what the consequences will be. What should/will the reaction of the US, EU, Russia, China be... News and development. It's quite possible that during November we will have new round of talks between the EU and Iran...

The floor is yours, ladies and gentlemen!

[gaelic cowboy]

Iran will try and do what they always been doing finish the nuke without getting attacked they know the USA cant attack cos they are bogged down.

Since US cant attack they must use a proxy (proxy = Israel) Unfortunately for Israel short of using nukes an Israeli attack will not destroy Irans nuke programme but could end up bogging down an America ally in a deadly war. Nukes indeed may not stop the programme as it is apparently been well distributed and hidden plus the knowledge will still be there after any attack.

Any Israeli/USA attack will cause Irans proxies HAMAS and Hezbollah to attack Israel. Israel would not fare well in this senario just like in the last Hezbollah fighting. Therefore Israel/USA need sneakier methods to disrupt the Iranians I bet all sorts of CIA/Mossad shennanagins are going on as we speak just like the virus that was found in the siemens SCADA.

The last method is to use another proxy to buy off Iran here enters the EU with aid and the like to help Irans rubbish economy this may work in the short term or at least long enough to delay Iran till US/Israel have worked a plan that can stop Iran going nuclear.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Iran will try and do what they always been doing finish the nuke without getting attacked they know the USA cant attack cos they are bogged down.

Since US cant attack they must use a proxy (proxy = Israel) Unfortunately for Israel short of using nukes an Israeli attack will not destroy Irans nuke programme but could end up bogging down an America ally in a deadly war. Nukes indeed may not stop the programme as it is apparently been well distributed and hidden plus the knowledge will still be there after any attack.

Referring to the bold bit, did you hear about that advanced virus that only targeted Iran's infrastructure? Seems to have done its job.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-11388018
http://www.symantec.com/content/en/u...et_dossier.pdf

[gaelic cowboy]

Referring to the bold bit, did you hear about that advanced virus that only targeted Iran's infrastructure? Seems to have done its job.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-11388018
http://www.symantec.com/content/en/u...et_dossier.pdf

I already mentioned it see below the bolded bit from my earlier post

Therefore Israel/USA need sneakier methods to disrupt the Iranians I bet all sorts of CIA/Mossad shennanagins are going on as we speak just like the virus that was found in the siemens SCADA.

A disruption to SCADA like this would slow it down a lot as they would have to replace all the controlers in every plant. However they will just buy new ones and ensure there properly checked and they will have to ensure proper controls on USB sticks etc.

Course they might ditch those kinds of controllers altogether but it would require a massive overhaul of the architecture of the plants and achieve the delay US wants.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I already mentioned it see below the bolded bit from my earlier post

A disruption to SCADA like this would slow it down a lot as they would have to replace all the controlers in every plant. However they will just buy new ones and ensure there properly checked and they will have to ensure proper controls on USB sticks etc.

Course they might ditch those kinds of controllers altogether but it would require a massive overhaul of the architecture of the plants and achieve the delay US wants.

Woah. Somehow I didn't see that part of your post. Sorry. But yeah, as long as they can make a virus to get in, wouldn't they be able to severely delay Iran's efforts as long as they wanted? They switch out the controllers and then they just infect those with a new virus causing more damage.

[gaelic cowboy]

Woah. Somehow I didn't see that part of your post. Sorry. But yeah, as long as they can make a virus to get in, wouldn't they be able to severely delay Iran's efforts as long as they wanted? They switch out the controllers and then they just infect those with a new virus causing more damage.

Not if they went for some kind of local distributed system but it would be a pain to run and that would reduce the efficiency of the plants achieving the delay.

US can play dirty and stoke an Islamic coldwar hence this

[Prince Cobra]

Funny you mentioned the virus. Some time ago I read something interesting about which states could stand behind the virus...

http://nationalinterest.org/commenta...orm-turns-4168

[Hax]

I think there are two main reasons why Iran would want enriched uranium; I think the first reason is to be able to hold their own against the United States and Israel in international politics. The second reason would be to gain a stable source of energy. They don't like the Arab oil states, the Arab oil states don't like them, and their relationship with America is even worse. And with the current president, there are very little options to talk. If only we'd thought about it sooner.

I think that Iran could be one of the best natural allies the NATO could have in the Middle East (save Turkey, of course). Not only politically, but also the first place where a reformed Islam could exist, in my opinion.

[gaelic cowboy]

I think there are two main reasons why Iran would want enriched uranium; I think the first reason is to be able to hold their own against the United States and Israel in international politics. The second reason would be to gain a stable source of energy. They don't like the Arab oil states, the Arab oil states don't like them, and their relationship with America is even worse. And with the current president, there are very little options to talk. If only we'd thought about it sooner.

I think that Iran could be one of the best natural allies the NATO could have in the Middle East (save Turkey, of course). Not only politically, but also the first place where a reformed Islam could exist, in my opinion.

Thats all true as regards being a more natural ally of NATO but you overestimate the ability of Khatami at the time to move Iran to a more democratic bent.

I seem to remember he was feted all around the place etc but the Mullahs and more rural people who are big supporters of status quo were not so enamoured.

Plus Kahmeni was not long in power and no doubt worried about being toppled by popular revolt when it was obvious there was enough support to crush Khatemi he did and there was nothing the West could do about it short of invade.

[gaelic cowboy]

Looks like Iran is not the only country that should not have Nukes tut tut

'World's most advanced' nuke sub runs aground

[Fragony]

Doubt Iran is stupid/bloodthirsty enough to launch a nuke, even can, rockets can be shot down with patriots or Thales. But their favorite proxies with the ability to fire dirty bombs, very real threat.

[gaelic cowboy]

Doubt Iran is stupid/bloodthirsty enough to launch a nuke, even can, rockets can be shot down with patriots or Thales. But their favorite proxies with the ability to fire dirty bombs, very real threat.

No there not stupid there really clever actually they only need less than a dozen nukes and they assure dominance of there region. The USA/Russia/EU will all end up spending many multiples of billions in there own regions or areas of interest to ensure there own needs etc

[Furunculus]

No there not stupid there really clever actually they only need less than a dozen nukes and they assure dominance of there region. The USA/Russia/EU will all end up spending many multiples of billions in there own regions or areas of interest to ensure there own needs etc

not to mention saudi, jordan, and egypt.

[gaelic cowboy]

not to mention saudi, jordan, and egypt.

US seems to be warning Iran with the arms sale we saw that they risk a potentially deadly sunni/shia coldwar if they push US too much.

My belief is that Iran will eventually get the bomb and it will rock the cozy US consensus on the mid east. They will have to deal with Iran and bring them in from the cold no natter how unpalatable it might be.

The security of Israel would depend on them having good relations or at least not outright hostility to each other.

If Iran could be turned then a big source of millitant funding would cease and help Israel actually in a way but that is all theory at the minute.

[Fragony]

No there not stupid there really clever actually they only need less than a dozen nukes and they assure dominance of there region. The USA/Russia/EU will all end up spending many multiples of billions in there own regions or areas of interest to ensure there own needs etc

Not nearly enough missiles can be intercepted, they will need more, patriots have poor succes rate but you can buy hundreds of them for the price of a nuke and they only need a glorified truck for launch.

[rory_20_uk]

For a nuke yes.

I'm no expert, but I'd fire 100 missiles and have 95% with dummy / conventional warheads. Suddenly the odds of hitting the crucial ones looks a lot harder.

[gaelic cowboy]

For a nuke yes.

I'm no expert, but I'd fire 100 missiles and have 95% with dummy / conventional warheads. Suddenly the odds of hitting the crucial ones looks a lot harder.

Absolutely correct hitting a missile with another missile is really hard and not fail safe you just stuff loads of dummy warheads in missiles and you increase the complexity probably beyond the system to cope.

[caravel]

Iran quite simply needs the deterrent in order to avoid going the same way as Iraq.

[Fragony]

For a nuke yes.

I'm no expert, but I'd fire 100 missiles and have 95% with dummy / conventional warheads. Suddenly the odds of hitting the crucial ones looks a lot harder.

Got me there

[Hax]

Thats all true as regards being a more natural ally of NATO but you overestimate the ability of Khatami at the time to move Iran to a more democratic bent.

Perhaps. We could have only found out if we had tried to talk. Now look at it all. I do agree, though, Khatami had very little real power, but at least he gave a good image of what the people wanted to happen.

[Fragony]

Perhaps. We could have only found out if we had tried to talk. Now look at it all. I do agree, though, Khatami had very little real power, but at least he gave a good image of what the people wanted to happen.

There is real power, this was Iran. Absurd that a black bag is the last thing gays and powerbabes see in this once great culture http://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/4788...revolutie.html Only a matter of time before it's reclaimed by muslims who don't follow the Islam, the ordinary people who just want to live their lives and who's greatest concern is what's for dinner.

Islam may be a hydra but it's heart is Iran

disclaimer, with Islam I mean the literally-freaks who believe in total submission, as the word means.

[Empire*Of*Media]

please invade iran so we will live in peace !! almost !! at all better than Islamic Republic !! they are worse than USSR & N.Korea & all great dictators !! Believe me !! you must live in here and you will know !!
at all why you alwayse see the nuclear program?! so your HUMEN RIGHTS is just a Lie !

[Fragony]

Be carefull what you write you are not anonymous they can see what you just posted, courtesy of Siemens and Nokia

[Strike For The South]

Iran quite simply needs the deterrent in order to avoid going the same way as Iraq.

Iran in no way equals Iraq.

What a shallow assessment of the situation.

[Papewaio]

What a shallow assessment of the situation.

Originally attributed to Powell talking to Bush and Chenny pre Iraq invasion...

[HopAlongBunny]

Short of invasion there is really no way to stop Iran from developing nuclear capability. If they really want "the bomb" they will get it; if the basket case that is N.Korea can do it, Iran is a slam-dunk.

[Beskar]

Iran most likely already has the bomb, however, it doesn't suit its purpose to announce it. The whole "peaceful nuclear energy" excuse goes out the window then.

[HopAlongBunny]

The energy excuse makes sense though. As an oil exporter, nuclear energy is pure win => more hydrocarbons to send to market.

I say this despite the fact we export oil here, but 80% of our energy comes from coal.

[drone]

The energy excuse makes sense though. As an oil exporter, nuclear energy is pure win => more hydrocarbons to send to market.

I say this despite the fact we export oil here, but 80% of our energy comes from coal.

IIRC, Iran may be an oil exporter, but they have very little refining capability so they can't supply themselves with fuel. They export crude, but import usable petro products.

[HopAlongBunny]

Aha!

Refining consumes a lot of energy; nuclear power opens the way to a refining renaissance for Iran!