Euro Area

[Kralizec]

Uhh, hit me

Well, I don't think the EU is first and foremost about economics. And it certainly isn't first and foremost about a common currency. Remember we got along well without one for 50 years. Most of the present eurozone economies would be much more competitive without the euro; the weaker ones would be able to devaluate and the stronger wouldn't have to bail out the weaker ones in the midst of a recession.

Most importantly, each country would retain (or regain) its sovereignty. Further centralisation according to the Merkozy plan would mean putting half a dozen member states under guardianship of an outside agent, i.e. the ESFS or so-called 'future European IMF'. It would spell the end of democracy for these countries since the richer member states would propose to them a deal akin to the one Athens proposed to the Melians.



I think it might enable Europe to re-unite. It is deeply devided now, if you hadn't noticed, and Merkozy is stretching it to breaking point. Any more of this and we will be looking at encampadas throughout the continent. And as much as I hate camping, I'll be joining them.

AII

Is the EMU currency itself the problem, or the half-assed institutions that surround it?

Arguably, the current problems would have been a lot smaller if we had a Stability & Growth pact that contained more realistic criteria and was properly enforced.

The EU government structures need to be rebuilt, in my opinion in the likeness of the German government. A Bundestag composed of European parliamentarians and a Bundesrat composed of representatives of the national governments. A proper government who answers to, and can be sacked by the Bundestag. A clearly defined group of tasks in which the EU is competent, the rest being the domain of the national governments.

[Adrian II]

Good ideas, Kralizec, both on the transition away from the euro and on possible future institutions. Only in the present climate there is no room and no political will for a complete institutional rehash. Without this bloody euro mistake we might have been able to progress politically and get our house in Brussels in order, for which a Bundestag/Bundesrat (or US Congress/Senate) model might be suitable - and by that I mean workable as well as equitable. I just don't see it happening now.

AII

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It would also cause 'brand' damage similar to that of the US Congress bickering.

Considering the basis of the EU is first and foremost economic and you can't even get that right iff you give up on the Euro.

It would effectively dissolve any future ambitions of being a united Europe.

External nations including Russia, China and the US will be wondering how trustworthy the word of any European nation is if they cannot even look after their own EU members.

What treaty will be worth the paper it is printed on if the modern EU at the first pressure buckles and can't work out it's differences without having temper tantrums more beffiting a nusery "it's my currency not yours", "but I want all the benefit's and none of the hardwork", "I want your cheap labour but I don't want to support the country that makes it possible"

Talk about waving the white flag of surrender and truly putting Europe on the trash heap of the has beens. Do you have anything of value like the Marbles that some up and coming states can buy off you in the next hundred years or so? Maybe reposition your new fractured currencies around your ankles in an attempt to out compete Vietnamese labour for manufacturing outsourced from China.

Chose your long term trajectory now. Either deal yourselves in to the future with the Americans and Chinese or stop bitching about how great you were and will never be again. A united Europe has a future, a fractured one will just prove to the rest of the world that two world wars wasn't enough to knock some sense into such a tribal society.

You're on a cusp where Europe can still be something meaningful in the world. Or it can just be a stop over pit stop for the world shakers. A charming destination for tourist's looking for the charming and kitch "Oh look dear the Orient Express is going through Old Europe, do you remember A ma saying that they used to be world leaders until they started looking inwards and collapsed like the China and Japan of old."

Mind you I live in the world's largest quarry. So what the fudge do I understand about real politik.

All this has already happened, "Merkozy" is now aknowledged as the only actual entity capable of providing a solution, and our stock markets are in a dive because those two won't bite the bullet, every dat the dissultion of the Euro becomes more likely and more desirable. I think we have already passed the point of no return, there isn't time for a new treaty to be drawn up, haggled over and voted through in referenda in order to create actual democratic institutions, and even if there was "Merkozy" would not relinquish their power to an elected European government.

The Euro is toast.

On the up side, the US, China and Russia are also in at least as much trouble. China was never going to rule the world, any more than the Soviets, the US is just past it's sell by date (and what a short date) and Russia is totally dependant on it's Tzar for good governence.

I have heard it would be cheaper for us to do that then the current system of giving the money to Europe straight from our existing taxes. Plus, if it was a straight tax, there would be far more resistance to it ever increasing, and thus European budget could not especially raise it like they do by demanding more money from the nations (which keeps it between politicians and not the tax payer and Europe).

As for Kinship, I feel more kinship with the Scanians of Sweden then I do with the Londoners in the South. Europe Federal Union is something I would encourage and not oppose.

I heard that was a lie. It would just result in more taxation, money would still come from the individual states and the EU would just become more beurocratic. The very idea they should be allowed tax-raising powers when their accountants will not sign the account book as legit is insulting.

as to Kinship, Scandanavians are the Cousins of the English, as are the Irish - it's no wonder you feel kinship - that doesn't mean you should be politically yoked to the Greeks and Italians as well.

Good ideas, Kralizec, both on the transition away from the euro and on possible future institutions. Only in the present climate there is no room and no political will for a complete institutional rehash. Without this bloody euro mistake we might have been able to progress politically and get our house in Brussels in order, for which a Bundestag/Bundesrat (or US Congress/Senate) model might be suitable - and by that I mean workable as well as equitable. I just don't see it happening now.

AII

Maybe, but increasingly I have come to believe that the EU has always been a mirrage, success has been more to do with war-fatigue and the threat of the Soviets and their nukes than any actual inherrent worth in the EU project.

[Louis VI the Fat]

On the up side, the US, China and Russia are also in at least as much trouble. China was never going to rule the world, any more than the Soviets, the US is just past it's sell by date (and what a short date) and Russia is totally dependant on it's Tzar for good governence.

Let's assume this is all true.

Power, however, is relative. Who then, do you think, would rule the world if not Europe, the US, Russia and China? Liechtenstein?

the EU would just become more beurocratic.

That's racist!!1! Fear of Eurabia!

WHAT IS YOUR OPINION OF YOUTH CAMPS




Louis - the face of France is no longer the beret but the beurette.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Let's assume this is all true.

Power, however, is relative. Who then, do you think, would rule the world if not Europe, the US, Russia and China? Liechtenstein?

South America, look at Brazil: developing and largely stable democracy, growing population, largely quite young, and large untapped natural reserves.

The US, by contrast, is largely tapped out on the resource front, has an aging population, and overburdened state and a falling birth rate.

China has a powerful economy, but not per capita, a large democratic deficit and a demographic time bomb that will hit when all those young men realise there are no women fro them to marry and procreate with. Like the US it is also largely tapped out on the resource front, which is which is it why imports massive materials.

Russia shares a border with China, had limited natural resources remaining, a large democratic deficit and a growning and decrepit infastructure whose modernisation is hampered by rampant corruption and cronyism.

Europe, seperately or as the EU, has all the problems of the US (including rising religious fundamentalism) and a democratic deficit.

Whatever the shape of the future, it won't be what we are expecting, but if Europe wants to be powerful again then she will have to go to war and take something from someone else. As you said, power is relative - it is also zero sum.

[Louis VI the Fat]

if Europe wants to be powerful again then she will have to go to war and take something from someone else.

Excellent. I propose you take Australia and we take the Sahara. Each ten million square kilometers of desert with a narrow strip of habitable land near the coast.

If the Germans want in too we'll keep 'em down together. We'll overcome any Yank objection by dazzling them with our culture, to which they in the end secretly desire. They'll be in our camp.

But does China sleep this time?



Louis - Gah! I'm so good at plotting global domination! Why oh why wasn't I born in my beloved nineteenth century?

[gaelic cowboy]

But does China sleep this time?

Sleep they will indeed do Louis sure there in a massive ponzi scheme, when looked at from Ireland all the hallmarks are there it's pretty obvious really.

[Vladimir]

Louis - the face of France is no longer the beret but the beurette.

Don't do a Google image search of beurette at work.