Euro Area

[gaelic cowboy]

Thought I would see how much of the opening post has happened and it's pretty much all happened.

Basically if one scans the news media in a broad sense you can see a trend here that Portugal is next and therefore Spain.

Portugal check Spain in progress

If this all comes to pass the EFSF fund will run out and the Euro has a major problem lots of debt and no money left to bail out Spain.

check already topped up a few times now and there meeting to do it again.

The debt will be devalued and banks will be wound up the Euro will be severely weakened and what little gra anyone has for the Euro will go with them.

check Anglo and Irish nationwide are all gone, and the Euro down along with our gra for it too.

It seemed such a good idea at the time save the Euro by preventing a default of the PIIGS debt but I don't think it is going to work.

check


I also predicted that the bailout rate from the ECB and EU would have to come down and they have indeed come down now about twice in about a month or so.

I also said some bondholders of Irish bank bonds would be scalped and they were indeed scalped no less a man than Roman Arkadyevich Abramovich got burned.
The government was going to scalp more this month and basically the ECB begged Noonan not to do it hence the second reduction in the bailout rate.

Pretty much the only thing I didnt get right was that there was no medium term liquidity for banks proposal instead the ECB put pressure on the EU to extend the maturity of the bailout.

The ECB seems intent on protecting banks ahead of anyone as far as I can see.