Euro Area

[Fragony]

http://euobserver.com/13/113821

Oh dear that's bad, as much as they hate to hear it they are a bit like the Turks, only Greek ones. The Arabs have an old joke that Greeks are Arabs who talk greece. If the military starts to complain it's serious

[Papewaio]

So how will the EU handle a military junta attacking a democratically elected member state?

What is the penalty to the junta members? Complete annihilation and seizure of all assets? Or will the penalty be soninadequate to make military coup an attractive option?

Does the EU have the ability and intestinal fortitude to deal with a member state coup?
Is there anything written in the EU documents to cover such a situation?

Australia's federal model used the American Civil war as a test case so that the Australian Consitution spells out that once a nation joins to become a State it cannot leave by law. Also State power is moderated to avoid such an issue.

So my question is did the EU frame the exit policy at the start with foresight or is it a matter of make it up as they go along and ignore all lessons learnt by other nations who have fused (UK,USA etc)?

[phonicsmonkey]

make it up as they go along and ignore all lessons learnt by other nations who have fused (UK,USA etc)?

This - failure was not to be contemplated!

In the CFA institute journal for July/August the point was made that the theory of optimum currency areas (Mundell, 1961) states that it is in the interests of a group of nations to form a currency union if and only if the mobility of the factors of production (labour and capital) within the proposed union is greater than the mobility without. This is to provide the economic flexibility to offset the loss of the ability for the individual nations' currencies to fluctuate.

For a number of reasons that doesn't hold (and has never held) in the case of the Euro, and that situation has worsened since 2008 with capital being effectively nationalised. Hence the current crisis is almost unavoidable with economic imbalances arising, worsened by irresponsible fiscal decision-making.

[Fragony]

'So how will the EU handle a military junta attacking a democratically elected member state?'

As always, MOAR POWER TO BRUSSELS

[Adrian II]

So how will the EU handle a military junta attacking a democratically elected member state?

It won't happen because (1) the military doesn't know Jack Daisy about economics and doesn't want to take responsibility for the present mess, and (2) Greece would become pariah state within Nato, unable to even buy the mentioned new weapons anymore.

AII

[Papewaio]

If the junta is like a lot of prior juntas think they know best and form a coup.

a) What is the EUs policy? Do they have one?

Basic Business 101 is you build your exit clause at the start even more so if you are forming a partnership.

b). Considering the mixed success of Libya does the EU even have the capacity to effectively stop a coup in Greece?

C). If left to their own devices is the EU prepared for Greece realigning itself with another sphere of powers or worse becomming to the EU what Chechnya is to Russia? After all if a murdering junta came to power in my country because of the policies and then lack of action by outside powers I would expect to see a rise in terrorists going into the nations responsible.

[Fragony]

It won't happen because (1) the military doesn't know Jack Daisy about economics and doesn't want to take responsibility for the present mess, and (2) Greece would become pariah state within Nato, unable to even buy the mentioned new weapons anymore.

AII

You make storming the parliament sound so complicated

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It won't happen because (1) the military doesn't know Jack Daisy about economics and doesn't want to take responsibility for the present mess, and (2) Greece would become pariah state within Nato, unable to even buy the mentioned new weapons anymore.

AII

I think you a suffering from a recurrence of EUness. It CAN happen, we should make sure it doesn't. The Generals may simply conclude that the restoration of the Drachma is the only sane course and the politicians are refusing to do it for purely political reasons.

Of course, only one country has the tanks to fight an actual land war in Europe right now, and they won't challenge Greek generals directly, so if it does happen it will be hard to undo.

[Adrian II]

I think you a suffering from a recurrence of EUness. It CAN happen, we should make sure it doesn't.

I think that no Greek officer will want to take responsibility for the present mess, it's as simple as that. Besides, no one outside Greece will support, encourage even suffer a coup, contrary to 1967.

Of course if public order in Greece breaks down completely the army may appear on the streets, though with what mission or mandate remains to be seen.

If a coup takes place I think Greece will be suspended from or kicked out of the EU.

AII

[gaelic cowboy]

Has anyone considered that the coup were convinced cant happen may do so because the army refuse to put down austerity protests.

That would put them on the side of the people against the government and crucially in control.

[Papewaio]

Hmm how did WWII start... something about over zealous monetary measures slapped on the losing party making their economy collapse.

I don't see Greece rising like an economic phoneix invading the rest of Europe.

But I do see the potential to create with billions of dollars poorly invested and mean spirit a failed state... at least the US went and got Iraq and Afghanistan off the shelf at a much cheaper price.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I think that no Greek officer will want to take responsibility for the present mess, it's as simple as that. Besides, no one outside Greece will support, encourage even suffer a coup, contrary to 1967.

Of course if public order in Greece breaks down completely the army may appear on the streets, though with what mission or mandate remains to be seen.

If a coup takes place I think Greece will be suspended from or kicked out of the EU.

AII

But, if there is a publically supported coup, with the army and people uniting against the corrupt politicians, should we not welocme that as we have in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt?

Life is not so simple any more, and the likelyhood of a coup rises with each further twist of the screws on collective Greek thumbs.

[InsaneApache]

All in the name of integration. Bastards.

[Furunculus]

So my question is did the EU frame the exit policy at the start with foresight or is it a matter of make it up as they go along and ignore all lessons learnt by other nations who have fused (UK,USA etc)?

there is no exit policy from the euro, but there is an exit policy from the EU as per the Lisbon Treaty.

this is why europhiles FUD to the max when the reject the idea of Greece leaving the eurozone, suggesting that it would mean exit from the EU itself.

this is utter tosh, for as has been demonstrated time after time with the euro-crisis, whenever there is a problem with the rules they show ZERO compunction about tearing them up and creating new ones.

[Fragony]

there is no exit policy from the euro, but there is an exit policy from the EU as per the Lisbon Treaty.

this is why europhiles FUD to the max when the reject the idea of Greece leaving the eurozone, suggesting that it would mean exit from the EU itself.

this is utter tosh, for as has been demonstrated time after time with the euro-crisis, whenever there is a problem with the rules they show ZERO compunction about tearing them up and creating new ones.

It's the definition of insanity, trying the exact same thing over and over again yet expecting different results. You just can't organise Europe it is simply impossible. There is going to be bloodshed in Croatia very soon, I'm gettiing bottled water and beans in tomatoe-sause as this is going to hurt. And if it doesn't I'll have it anyway