Euro Area

[Furunculus]

agreed, the best possible outcome is for germany and the netherlands will leave, the rump of the eurozone will devalue in consequence, and the pressure on the PIGS will lessen signifiantly.

good post on what germany needs to do to save the eurozone, and the likelyhood of it being willing to do so:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-the-euro.html

[Fragony]

The idealists are the problem, they will never accept that they were wrong. They will just go on with it. Einstein had something wise to say about insanity.

[gaelic cowboy]

agreed, the best possible outcome is for germany and the netherlands will leave, the rump of the eurozone will devalue in consequence, and the pressure on the PIGS will lessen signifiantly.

And lose all those exports to the rest of the Eurozone which accounts for 40% of there total exports with another 20% thrown for the rest of Europe.

[Furunculus]

they are strangling their neighbours anyway with their low labour costs and competitve (by german norms) currency.

the euro has turned germany's neighbouring countries from growth markets to stagnant swamps, not exactly a sustainable option for healthy german exports in the long term.

i see german mechatronic precision machine-tools regualarly, it is not something that will just migrate elsewhere if its gets 5% more expensive, german exports will at worst be no better off five years down the line if they leave.*




* my guess - not backed up by any particular empirical evidence or wizardly forecasting.

[gaelic cowboy]

i see german mechatronic precision machine-tools regualarly, it is not something that will just migrate elsewhere if its gets 5% more expensive, german exports will at worst be no better off five years down the line.

Yes it can migrate.

sure dont they already threaten there own workforce with expanding to Eastern Europe in order to achieve wage restraint.

[Furunculus]

are you typing on a smartphone because that came out a little garbled? :)

[Kagemusha]

Furunculus while you are big fan of US born global capitalism.It is childish to impose your personal preference as truth.

Maybe for example you should analyze why germany with its leftist social politics is fourth largest nominal gdp in the world with only bit over then 80 million people? I know already that your answer is that UK surely will be larger economy then Germany after next two decades.Thatcherians said the same two decades a go, but it didint happen.Why?

[Fragony]

Oh lollipop, exodus of the rich in France. What is it with lefties not understanding that recources aren't infinite. You can't take it for granted that the money will never run out, we have to find a cure for the addiction of other people's money. For our children. There will be mass starvations if we do not act right now.

Someone build a moneymill-park

[Furunculus]

Furunculus while you are big fan of US born global capitalism.It is childish to impose your personal preference as truth.

Maybe for example you should analyze why germany with its leftist social politics is fourth largest nominal gdp in the world with only bit over then 80 million people? I know already that your answer is that UK surely will be larger economy then Germany after next two decades.Thatcherians said the same two decades a go, but it didint happen.Why?

it is not chilish at all, and my view is not based on some abstract in economic dualism, it boils down to this.

are you my family.
will germany pay for greece in perpetuity
will greeks accept grinding austerity for the next decade to please the germans
if the answer to both the above is not "yes" then a currency union won't work at the bottom of the economic cycle.
because there is no mandate for contentious policy.

------------------------------------------------------------

two good quotes from non-tory (since that clarification seems necessary for people to look at it without shouting "tory stooge"):

nick clegg -

"Whilst I have a huge amount of sympathy with German taxpayers and German politicians who are reluctant, understandably because Germany is the paymaster of the European Union, to entertain these ideas, I fear that they are unavoidable."

"It is not sustainable to believe that the eurozone can thrive through fiscal discipline alone - it also has to, at some level, include an ability to either share debt or to deal with shocks in one part of the system or the other through fiscal transfers."

ed balls -

"In the end... somebody has got to persuade Germany that this is a catastrophe for Britain, Europe and the world and that Germany has got to change course,"

"The problem is, the German people went into the eurozone 10 years ago on the clear promise that they weren't going to bail out Italy and the central bank wasn't going to play this role. Both things have got to change."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-eurozone.html