Originally Posted by gaelic cowboy:
The problem is still in the banks and no ammount of production will save those banks.
All money has long be detracted from the Southern banks we don't have anything on it really. Same goes for Germany. Good luck without us
gaelic cowboy 16:28 06-05-2012
Originally Posted by Fragony:
All money has long be detracted from the Southern banks we don't have anything on it really. Same goes for Germany. Good luck without us
you still dont get it do you Frag.
In a common currency like the Euro the banks are bailed out by each national government at the insistence of the ECB with no debt haircuts.
Removing your currency from southern banks does not remove the liability of the southern bank to pay back any debt.
Unfortunately these liabilities are too great hence we have bailouts because people dont want to crystalise the losses.
The longer this goes on the more dominoes will fall and when dominoes fall unless you take a few out it doesnt stop.
Originally Posted by gaelic cowboy:
you still dont get it do you Frag.
In a common currency like the Euro the banks are bailed out by each national government at the insistence of the ECB with no debt haircuts.
Removing your currency from southern banks does not remove the liability of the southern bank to pay back any debt.
Unfortunately these liabilities are too great hence we have bailouts because people dont want to crystalise the losses.
The longer this goes on the more dominoes will fall and when dominoes fall unless you take a few out it doesnt stop.
You don't get it, we already pulled back all investment in the south and all the money to pay for it. The Netherlands does not not need the European union we get along with Germany and the UK just fine. The rest of Europe is dead weight for us unless you get something out of being adventurous
gaelic cowboy 16:48 06-05-2012
Originally Posted by Fragony:
You don't get it, we already pulled back all investment in the south and all the money to pay for it. The Netherlands does not not need the European union we get along with Germany and the UK just fine. The rest of Europe is dead weight for us unless you get something out of being adventurous
You pulled back accounts and investments but the debts are still owed and crucially can still be booked in the Netherlands assets.
If the debt is not paid it will become by default a loss but who knows who has debt where and with who. Just cos netherlands has no money in Garlictown does not mean it's not exposed to a liquidity shock.
If a Dutch bank lent to an Austrian bank then in turn the Austrians might have a liability with a Spanish bank, if the Spanish bank falls then it is in the lap of the gods that the Dutch bank doesnt go too.
We cannot know where this will end if we try to either run away from it or smash the Eurozone, but my point has been all along that it's precisely were we are headed so far.
My belief is they should start putting plans in place to scrap it, but they wont do that so likely it will crash and burn us all.
I think a lot of the big countries are secretly liking us for holding some things back
gaelic cowboy 17:28 06-05-2012
Originally Posted by Fragony:
I think a lot of the big countries are secretly liking us for holding some things back
They havent a clue what there at sure there just startled rabbits in cars headlights, we think all this inaction and prevarication is strategy and tactics when in fact it is more denial and wishful thinking.
We will wake up one morning to see banks runs everywhere cos they changed or people feared a currency change over a holiday weekend.
rory_20_uk 17:43 06-05-2012
Given that currently all money in the EU is interchangable, and that countries' currencies will depreciate if they leave why not have all one's money in a german bank account and transfer small amounts when required to the local "bank". What possible reason does one have in leaving all one's money in a Greek bank (or even as Greek notes) where one could wake up and find you've lost 30-50% of your purchasing power overnight.
Is there a drawback to this that i am missing? Even if the interest rate was a percentage point or so lower, I'd accept this until the Troubles are over.
Who would in their right mind lend money to these banks? Should the Government borrow more for the banks? Except that they can't. Thus other governments have to give them money and take on the risks that the locals are sensibly refusing to take.
“And you are assuming that firstly that increasing life expectancy year on year is just to be expected, and secondly that the sole cause is working longer, not any other of the myriad health related problems.”
Err, no. I didn’t assume that life expectancy will always increase. What I was not expecting was to be shorter…
Then, the only circumstances in the 8 countries have in common is the increase of the working life: Because, in fact, we are better treated in Europe than we never have been: Better food, healthy life, social welfare, health and safety things in workplace, no more children in factories, less pollution due to no more old fashion industries, better life…
“My Grandfather worked until 70, Grandmother likewise - my father is still working at 61...” My grand-father died at 55, my father at 51. There are no male from my family who crossed the 60. My uncle might in few years, but notice he was an engineer, whereas my grand-father worked in the Railways and my father was soldier then worker… Oh, wait, perhaps there is a cause to effect factor…
“The suggestion that people become useless at 60 because they are not longer able to work is not only absurd but also offensive and docially divisive.”
For you the only use of human being is to work? You live in a strange world.
Sorry, I have other dream for elderly people than to work until they die. The time to walk with the grandchildren, to share with them a part of the journey, or with the nephews and nieces… Small pleasures, ambitions fulfilled, to enjoy a sun set, when you look behind and have the time to share, building memories to your younger family who, if you are lucky, will remember me like I remember my grand-father and father I had to know so shortly.
I gave to my country time in the Army, I worked all my adult life (and I am still working), sometimes for nothing as a volunteer, I am not asking for a favour. I am asking the State to fulfil the contract I signed when I paid my taxes and my pension.
“Someone who believes a Greek collapse will lead to a global collapse has left reason behind.” Explain how it will not? I gave no the reason it might if wrong decisions are taken. Tell me how the collapse of 5 major banks in France and Germany will not shake the system and can’t produce what I am saying?
The Collapse on one Currency in Germany produced a War, if you remember… Or learn.
rory_20_uk 18:03 06-05-2012
Originally Posted by Brenus:
“And you are assuming that firstly that increasing life expectancy year on year is just to be expected, and secondly that the sole cause is working longer, not any other of the myriad health related problems.”
Err, no. I didn’t assume that life expectancy will always increase. What I was not expecting was to be shorter…
Then, the only circumstances in the 8 countries have in common is the increase of the working life: Because, in fact, we are better treated in Europe than we never have been: Better food, healthy life, social welfare, health and safety things in workplace, no more children in factories, less pollution due to no more old fashion industries, better life…
It is likely that there will be slight year on year variation. If in the next 10 years the graph I posted above shows a consistent fall then that is concerning. You are again stating
correlation as
causation. You are also assuming that everything you have stated improves live expectancy and also that we have better food and a healthier life when we are becoming as a nation more obese with a higher calorific intake. Better life? Just a statement all alone by itself.
Good thing you don't work in my industry. We have to have referenced evidence as opposed to merely stating opinion as fact.
Originally Posted by Brenus:
“My Grandfather worked until 70, Grandmother likewise - my father is still working at 61...” My grand-father died at 55, my father at 51. There are no male from my family who crossed the 60. My uncle might in few years, but notice he was an engineer, whereas my grand-father worked in the Railways and my father was soldier then worker… Oh, wait, perhaps there is a cause to effect factor…
My Grandfather was an Anti-Air gunner and engineer during the war, blown up twice, after the war (and before) he was an electrian, worked on building sites etc. My father joined the merchant navy at 15 and worked on everything from tankers to sailing ships - he once spent 3 days on a burning wreck trying to put it out, then he became a sheep farmer and after that packed up a bus driver. HIS father was an engineer and died of a heart attack at 46 or there abouts.
So your family is predisposed to die young, that's unfortunate. I know a chap, every man in his family dies of a massive heart attack at 46, he is the first man in his family, on his father's side, to still be alive at 50
in living memory. The Pesion age is not designed for people who die young.
As I said, some people die at 20 from cancer, some at 40, the State has a responsibility to the whole of society though - not you as an individual.
“You are also assuming that everything you have stated improves live expectancy and also that we have better food and a healthier life when we are becoming as a nation more obese with a higher calorific intake. Better life? Just a statement all alone by itself.”
Are you assuming that I assume that McDonald is healthy Food? You put words on my mouth.
I don’t know in which industry you work but I hope it is not essential to just have a simple view on: XIX century, life expectation, XX century, life expectation, then to conclude that the XX is better than the XIX. I probably don’t have your power of analyse and stay on the surface, but, as a humble historian, I may have the opinion is our life is better than the one of our ancestors.
Now, it is your right to think that London of the XIX was better, as the water was so polluted than population had to drink beer, when childrenwere working in factories and young girls selling their virginity was the top to do, I beg to disagree.
If you want to compare with even the second half the XX century, we can.
It is true that we can become obese, privilege that was reserved only for few privileged castes not so long time ago. If we die from cancer, it is because we don’t die of hunger. You might analyse that it is not a progress, I do think it is. We have alzheimer because we live long enough to be able to get it. I do understand that in your opinion it might not be a real progress…
You just brush aside facts that don’t support your view. I do the same, but I don’t pretend different.
“the State has a responsibility to the whole of society though - not you as an individual.” A State is a political construction, a contract for a community to have common rule. If you don’t think a State has to protect his weaker member and care for the population, but to be an autonomous beast so we don’t have the same idea of what is a State.
So, why do you pay taxes? To give good money to Politicians?
Furunculus 23:08 06-05-2012
“Also heard that Greece is expected to leave the Euro after the June 17 elections.” Yeah, heard that as well. The problem is of course nobody explains how. All these experts just forget one little useless thing: There is no provision in the Lisbon Treaty to oblige Greece to do so. That will be fun."
Brenus, whenever has the euro obeyed any rule stood in the way of ever closer union?
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