Euro Area

[gaelic cowboy]

target 2 springs back into the picture:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-headache.html

That Target 2 thing is a myth though cos during a euro breakup you only pay for the amount of the ECB that you own.

Therefore Germany would be smiling and anyone with a trade imbalance with Germany is not.


The large imbalance shows quite simply that money is flowing into Germany from places like Spain, Italy, Greece etc etc etc in the form of bank deposits and trade.

The reality is that Draghi could solve any target 2 problem caused by a breakup by updating a spreadsheet in ECB HQ by deleteing liability and inputting the word asset instead.

[Furunculus]

That Target 2 thing is a myth though cos during a euro breakup you only pay for the amount of the ECB that you own.

Therefore Germany would be smiling and anyone with a trade imbalance with Germany is not.

The large imbalance shows quite simply that money is flowing into Germany from places like Spain, Italy, Greece etc etc etc in the form of bank deposits and trade.

The reality is that Draghi could solve any target 2 problem caused by a breakup by updating a spreadsheet in ECB HQ by deleteing liability and inputting the word asset instead.

yes, thank you for that, i recall the previous debate about target 2 from a month or so ago.

interesting - certainly too complicated for me to feel that i understand it thoroughly enough to predict the consequences of its unravelling. :)

[gaelic cowboy]

yes, thank you for that, i recall the previous debate about target 2 from a month or so ago.

interesting - certainly too complicated for me to feel that i understand it thoroughly enough to predict the consequences of its unravelling. :)

Well lets remember that if it was breaking up it would be in the midst of a massive crisis and would likely not be handled very well by anyone.

In short everyone would lose

[Furunculus]

what about if greece left in eighteen months time, followed by a lisbon 2.0 treaty that provided an enhanced cooperation 'core' along with an exit clause for those unable to submit to it.

an option taken by italy and spain in the years following.

[gaelic cowboy]

what about if greece left in eighteen months time, followed by a lisbon 2.0 treaty that provided an enhanced cooperation 'core' along with an exit clause for those unable to submit to it.

an option taken by italy and spain in the years following.

Greece wont be leaving anytime soon when there trying to put out a fire in Spain and Italy.

They would have to explain how you could leave and that would end up meaning Spain would have to go due to market pressure, so basically they wont be doing that.

The likelyhood for my money is that Spain will try to limp on till ESM/ECB comes to the rescue outside troika control.

Everytime I read about this stuff I just depress myself more especially when I read a moronic comment like this

All key parties agree in any case that EU-IMF Troika discipline in Ireland and Portugal would collapse if Spain secures softer terms. "Everything will fall apart unless the conditions imposed on Spain are extremely tough. Madrid should have no illusions about this," said one German policy-maker.

In other words there is a fire next door so were going to worry about what sort of fireproof materials the neighbours are putting in.

[Furunculus]

Greece wont be leaving anytime soon when there trying to put out a fire in Spain and Italy.

They would have to explain how you could leave and that would end up meaning Spain would have to go due to market pressure, so basically they wont be doing that.

The likelyhood for my money is that Spain will try to limp on till ESM/ECB comes to the rescue outside troika control.

Everytime I read about this stuff I just depress myself more especially when I read a moronic comment like this

In other words there is a fire next door so were going to worry about what sort of fireproof materials the neighbours are putting in.

the eurozone is going to get smaller, it is just a question of when.