Afghanistan as a Western Front against China

[ICantSpellDawg]

I watch Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski every morning. Every morning, Joe goes off on a tangent about the war in Afghanistan being unwinnable and about never getting an answer from government officials as to why we are there; costs vs benefits. Aside from the arguments posited regarding the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, I believe that there is an unspoken and worthwhile reason that we are in Afghanistan, why we are surging our troop levels there and why we will and should be there for the next 20 years at least.

China.

As China's anti-ship ballistic missile and naval capabilities exceed our ability to cope with their range in the western pacific, we must bolster our retaliatory options. While we have traditionally had an advantage by sea globally, this advantage is shrinking with an eclipse in sight due to PLA countermeasures. The war in Afghanistan has been an excellent excuse to bolster our troop levels in a U.S. puppet state with a land route into the weakest and most ideal fighting area in China. The areas where the U.S. military is most competitive and practiced are in naval and desert land offensive combat and the air power that supports it. The Wakhan corridor is the perfect route into a perfect area that would lend well to a multi-front war with China should the need arise.

In short, Afghanistan is the western end of our encirclement policy and serves as our insurance in the event that we are met with powerful resistance in the western Pacific. Compare the cost of our activity and basing framework in and around Korea, Japan and the Phillipines combined - A western option is more important.

What do you think? With this in mind is the cost more justified?

[HoreTore]

And where, pray tell, will the US find the manpower to fight the worlds largest army when almost everyone is tied down fighting insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq....?

And how is this goal unobtainable without a military invasion? Why couldn't diplomacy get the same result at a billionth of the price?

[ICantSpellDawg]

Maybe we are hoping that in 20 years the insurgency will be less of a threat and more of a scapegoat for staying? Xinjiang is a very weak area of China and is only associated with China by force. I think that this area is vulnerable to being broken off from China.

As our military has shown, manpower is not key in conflict anymore, beyond the brainpower that it brings. The pre-invasion Iraqi army numbered around 375k, most of whom were in the southeast when we rolled right over them in record time. The Insurgency is where we began to see casualties.

The satellite network is a major concern. We are still investigating "unmanned space exploration", so hopefully we don't lose in that field.

None of this is inevitable, all of it should be avoided - I'm just saying it is good to keep the options open. We have (or have had) plans to invade Canada, so I'm sure we have a plan for our number 1 global threat. What are all of your plans to cope with an aggressive China should the need arise?

[HoreTore]

The stone age army of Iraq cannot be compared to the modern army of China. And manpower is of course an issue. You can't even invade Iceland if you don't have a guy to carry a gun and go in there. You're going to need some hundred thousands at the very least, and you're having difficulty getting roughly 100k to die in Afghanistan...

And you haven't answered why you wouldn't be able to build up forces in the area by using diplomatic channels instead of a war that is close to crippling your economy. Oh yes, speaking of economics, have I mentioned yet that China basically owns America now?

[ICantSpellDawg]

We needed to be in Afghanistan after 2001 by most standards. We are there now and have no ability to leave at the drop of a hat. We could use this situation to our advantage.

China loaned the United States a massive pile of money and holds many reserves. It is arguable whether China owns us or we own them when they have no way to collect and we have no ability or inclination to pay on shorter notice than forever. Sure we could lose our credit worthiness, but if we still have it after this whole boondoggle, what is the holdup?

This isn't about economics - this is about what happens when neither side adheres to the reality that we all benefit from one another. I'm sure you've heard that Germany and the UK were the majority trading partner with one another prior to the breakout of war.

Does anyone know how much money we spend per year on our Pacific bases?

[rory_20_uk]

America's only "need" to be in Afghanistan was a short-sighted political one, as usual demanding a standard of others they never force on themselves. As any person realised who has even the sketchiest knowledge of the are or wars in general, it's easier to get into a war than out of one.

China is diversifying how it purchases goods and I imagine the long term aim is to reduce its need of the dollar. Nothing too soon, as else the value of their existing bonds will decrease.

America needs its currency to be the world's reserve currency as its current account deficit requires people to continue buying today's debts to pay for yesterday's. Defaulting would probably mean people look for other leading currencies. Personally I'd go for the Rinimbi as the Euro has weak underpinnings and Japan is celebrating almost 20 years of near recession.

[PanzerJaeger]

The stone age army of Iraq cannot be compared to the modern army of China. And manpower is of course an issue.

Actually, the Chinese military would be a far more suitable opponent to the US military than the low level, localized insurgencies it is currently facing. For sixty years the US has been working to negate the numbers advantage in men and equipment of another large communist state, and the tools at its disposal at this point are quite effective.

Put quite frankly, the US military is built, trained, and prepared to devour large, technologically inferior organized militaries following Soviet doctrine - which is what the Iraqi military was and what China's military still is, despite the recent increase in defense expenditures.

Also, any conceivable outright war with China would be far more catastrophic than the current conflicts the US military is engaged in, allowing the use of many of the more violent toys that could not be used in Iraq or Afghanistan. Even in a non-nuclear situation, the existence of the MOAB would render any large movements, or even concentrations, of Chinese men and material quite dangerous.

[Megas Methuselah]

Actually, the Chinese military would be a far more suitable opponent to the US military than the low level, localized insurgencies it is currently facing. For sixty years the US has been working to negate the numbers advantage in men and equipment of another large communist state, and the tools at its disposal at this point are quite effective.

Put quite frankly, the US military is built, trained, and prepared to devour large, technologically inferior organized militaries following Soviet doctrine - which is what the Iraqi military was and what China's military still is, despite the recent increase in defense expenditures.

Also, any conceivable outright war with China would be far more catastrophic than the current conflicts the US military is engaged in, allowing the use of many of the more violent toys that could not be used in Iraq or Afghanistan. Even in a non-nuclear situation, the existence of the MOAB would render any large movements, or even concentrations, of Chinese men and material quite dangerous.

Tell us more! Spicy post, nichie.

[rory_20_uk]

In short: no.

Fighting the Taliban is straining supply channels. So supplying an army that might worry China would require miracles - at the very least help from Russia, Kazakhstan and Pakistan - none of who might relish the USA having masses of troops in the area.

In anything more than a skirmish China would destroy or at the least cripple the USA's satellite net, so the USA would be fighting the world's largest Army in mountainous terrain where modern tech counts for a lot less with a vastly reduced information capacity. Perhaps EMPs would also be used to further damage the USA's advantage.

What would the USA gain from this? a war on two fronts with vast supply lines through countries that would rather a long protracted stalemate than a win for either sides.

And this nightmare scenario justifies the current waste of money and life...?

Afghanistan would be a great bulwark in a backward mess than no one important owns. Like landmines it is a great defensive weapon with no offensive capability.