China

[Seolun]

Do you think that China will become the most powerful and developed country as it was in the 17th century? Also - do you think that in that 17th century China was the most developed and powerful in the world?

[Karel de Stoute]

maybe but they still have a long way to go. Apart from the citys on the coast, most chinese still live as peasants in a tirth world country

[Vuk]

Do you think that China will become the most powerful and developed country as it was in the 17th century? Also - do you think that in that 17th century China was the most developed and powerful in the world?

lol, I would argue that China was not the most developed country in the 17th Century. European and East Asian cultures and civilizations have been neck-in-neck for most of their history I think, with Asia having the definate population advantage. It is hard to compare apples and oranges with different military systems and economies, but starting in the late 15th to early 16th centuries though I think Europe definately took the edge. On the military side of things alone, the fact that the Chinese abhorred shields I think puts them at an enormous disadvantage. Then of course you have to remember the size difference (of the individual soldier), which is very important when thinking about military power in an age dominated by melee warfare. Also, through much of their history, they were not fond of cavalry which would put them behind countries that employed a combined arms strategy (like most medieval European countries), and make it very difficult for them to combat the nations and tribes of the Steppes, as well as the Persians. (as that country was much better suited to cavalry than infantry)
If I was to make a generalization, I would say that China would have been one of if not the hardest country to try to invade and take on their own territory, but that its offensive capabilities were far behind those of Europe (though far more advanced than the rest of the world).

Maybe I am wrong (I am not very well read on China), but that is what I would think based on the little I know of China and of warfare.

[gaelic cowboy]

GDP wise in 17th century China was bigger yes also scientifically it prob was ahead till the industrial revolution.

But I would say by the middle part of 17th century countries like Britain, France and Holland were ahead on the military front and since in those days you had to grab what you could, then China had been passed by end of 17th in my view.

China/India will just be returning to what is the natural order of things an Asian dominated world, however last time I checked even china won't have the resources to enforce there political will like 18th century Britain did.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Do you think that China will become the most powerful and developed country as it was in the 17th century? Also - do you think that in that 17th century China was the most developed and powerful in the world?

Yes, sooner rather than later. I think sometime in the 2020s China will become the world's greatest power.


17th century - Close call. China was enormous, advanced, powerful. But Europe was more dynamic.
Europeans sailed to China, not the other way round. Then again, just as now, China produced goods Europe craved, but not the other way round.

[Brandy Blue]

Well, I guess its no coincidence that the West was mad keen to trade with China while the Chinese saw little point in what the West had to offer. In terms of material culture - silk, porcelain, etc. I expect the Chinese were doing quite well. I imagine that their best doctors were as good or better than much of what the west had to offer, except when it comes to surgery. Even the crude surgery possible in 17th century Europe was ahead of Chinese surgery.

Land forces have already been mentioned, so I will say a word or two about navies and merchant ships. The invention of the telescope gave the Europeans a valuable advantage at sea. Also, the Europeans were working seriously at developing and improving their ships. They had already shown what cannon mounted on ships could do at the battle of Lepanto the century before. (The Turks had cannon on their ships, but not enough.) In the 17th century the Europeans (Dutch especially) were also improving their ship designs with whole new classes of vessel - fluyts for merchants and sloops as a good trade vessel and navy vessel. As for the Chinese - well junks were fine ships but the Chinese did not seem to see the enormous potential for improvement.


In terms of mindset, I think Europe was well ahead. In spite of their genius for invention, the Chinese just didn't seem to have the hang of science as a developing area of experiement and study, whereas the Europeans had already begun a scientific revolution that paved the way for a later industrial revolution. Also, the Chinese leadership was inward looking, while it had already dawned on the Europeans that there was a whole world out there to investigate and (for better or worse) trade with, exploit, and/or colonize.

So I guess it depends how you look at things. In some ways the Chinese were well ahead of Europe, in others they were not doing so well. Certainly the European nations were poised to spring ahead, while China was not.

As for the future, I think that life is too unpredictable for anyone to know. You can guess and you might guess lucky, but we don't even know if there will be a human race in ten years, never mind which country will be the big shot. I would say that China has a real chance to move forward now, but I don't know what they will do with it.

Edit: Louis beat me to the punch on my major points.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Ninja'd.

[Brandy Blue]

Ninja'd.

I bow to your martial superiority. What can a poor foreigner expect, if he comes up against a Frenchman who is also a Texan? :)

By the way, my thanks to everyone who posts on this site, enriching my life with new facts and ideas. Yes, even Texan or worse, French ideas. :)

[aimlesswanderer]

China will have to figure out what to do with their growing, soon to be massive proportion of oldies. That alone will put a serious break on their economy and military ambitions.

[Strike For The South]

China will have to figure out what to do with their growing, soon to be massive proportion of oldies. That alone will put a serious break on their economy and military ambitions.

Heh, just like the rest of us.

Make no mistake China is the OG. Even worse China knows they are the OG and sees the west as a failed experiment of decadance. I fully expect to see America fall to #2 in my life time but.....such is life.

[gaelic cowboy]

Hmm are we all just ye know making a fuss out of nothing sure China might be no1 but her hegemony is likely to be constrained in a more multipolar world. The UK of 1911 was great but the UK of 2011 could destroy them in ten minutes, GDP is bigger army more powerful it's just that the bar is higher for Great Power status now.

If US is #2 by end of the century it does not mean everyone in the USA will starve to death.

[Strike For The South]

Hmm are we all just ye know making a fuss out of nothing sure China might be no1 but her hegemony is likely to be constrained in a more multipolar world. The UK of 1911 was great but the UK of 2011 could destroy them in ten minutes, GDP is bigger army more powerful it's just that the bar is higher for Great Power status now.

If US is #2 by end of the century it does not mean everyone in the USA will starve to death.

But...but...the narrative

[gaelic cowboy]

But...but...the narrative

oh my god sorry of course, hmm now where did I leave that narritive

"Lookout the British, Mexicans, Germans, Russians, Japanese Chinese are coming"

Ah thats better

[Fragony]

China is building a city that should shelter 45 million people. We are nothing but a rash on a flies butt. Their age, our loss.

[Meneldil]

People who spend their time spitting can't be #1. They can crush us economically and militarily, they will still spit on the ground 60 times an hour.

They are an old and decadent nation that lives off the rest of the world and who just happen to be important because of its huge population.

[Sarmatian]

They are an old and decadent nation that lives off the rest of the world and who just happen to be important because of its huge population.

Ironically, other countries that have been behind the west were always saying how the west is "decadent". Maybe this is another sign of the change that is coming...

[Louis VI the Fat]

Maybe this is another sign of the change that is coming...

Counting down the days, aren't ye Sarmatian?

[Sarmatian]

I, for one, welcome our new Sinnic overlords :)

[Louis VI the Fat]

China overtook the Japanese economy and is now the world's second largest.

China has overtaken Japan as the world's second-biggest economy.

Japan's economy was worth $5.474 trillion (£3.414 trillion) at the end of 2010, figures from Tokyo have shown. China's economy was closer to $5.8 trillion in the same period.
Japan has been hit by a drop in exports and consumer demand, while China has enjoyed a manufacturing boom.

At its current rate of growth, analysts see China replacing the US as the world's top economy in about a decade. "It's realistic to say that within 10 years China will be roughly the same size as the US economy," said Tom Miller of GK Dragonomics, a Beijing-based economic consultancy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12427321

Ten more years to global top spot, if that.

Personally I think in most aspects China is already the world's greatest power.

[Samurai Waki]

Arguably however, #1 does not necessarily mean an improvement in the quality of life. My bet is that the average Japanese Joe is still living better (and will continue to do so) than the average Chinese Joe. Despite China being the bigger economy. Whether or not China rises to be top dog, I doubt it will greatly affect most people in the world anyways, I think the biggest noticeable difference will be an exchange of American businessmen ruthlessly exploiting the poor to Chinese ones (although no doubt there will still be plenty of American businessmen). That hardly matters to people on the bottom rung of society.

[Sarmatian]

Arguably however, #1 does not necessarily mean an improvement in the quality of life. My bet is that the average Japanese Joe is still living better (and will continue to do so) than the average Chinese Joe. Despite China being the bigger economy. Whether or not China rises to be top dog, I doubt it will greatly affect most people in the world anyways, I think the biggest noticeable difference will be an exchange of American businessmen ruthlessly exploiting the poor to Chinese ones (although no doubt there will still be plenty of American businessmen). That hardly matters to people on the bottom rung of society.

It means the improvement in the quality of life but for a long time average Japanese and American Joes will be living better than average Chinese Joe.

On the other hand, it will have an effect on the world, mostly bad on western countries...

[Strike For The South]

Ten more years to global top spot, if that.

Personally I think in most aspects China is already the world's greatest power.

Do go on

[CBR]

Arguably however, #1 does not necessarily mean an improvement in the quality of life.

The middle class in China does appear to increase in size but there is obviously a big difference between the regions.

If we compare GDP per capita in the "administrative divisions" Then Shanghai is about 7.5 times higher than Guizhou at the bottom. (Yes I discount Macau and Hong Kong for what hopefully should be obvious reasons)

For USA it is 1.8 for Connecticut compared to Mississippi

Even within EU, where Eastern Europe is still catching up, Netherlands is "only" 2.8 times higher than Bulgaria (Discounting Luxembourg because of small size)

Comparing the same highest GDP per capita with the national (union) average then it is: Shanghai 3.1, Connecticut 1.4 and Netherlands 1.3

[aimlesswanderer]

Just look at a map of GDP growth rates or per capita incomes of the various provinces to see the the massive differences - coastal provinces are streaks ahead of the rest. Then there's the huge city-rural wealth gap, and then the out of control wealth of the fabulously rich. Wealth gap possibly even wider.

No wonder the CCP is so nervous about economic inequality - it's a massive and real problem, which is holding the country back. The government wants its people to consume more, but most don't have any money to buy shiny new appliances or cars, and they need to save what little they can in case someone gets sick: no money = no treatment...