Revolt/Revolution in Egypt

[Cecil XIX]

This seems like it deserves it's own thread.

For my part, I fear this will go the way of the Iranian and Russian Revolutions: Well-meaning protesters will depose the government and create a power vacuum that radical thugs can step into and seize power. This also comports to my theory that 2011 will mirror 1979 in terms of US foreign policy debacles.

Opinions?

[Noncommunist]

What makes you think it'll succeed now where other mass protests haven't in the past? And what about protests in Yemen, Jordan, or Albania?

[Fragony]

What makes you think it'll succeed now where other mass protests haven't in the past? And what about protests in Yemen, Jordan, or Albania?

Aren't you kinda answering your own question

http://www.twicsy.com/i/UNZex

^- 21 century welcomes ya

[Brenus]

“For my part, I fear this will go the way of the Iranian and Russian Revolutions”: There is a risk of it but can’t blame them to try to get rid of their actual thugs and corrupted masters…
Because the alternative could be something else than either the Shah and the Savak or Khomeiny and the Revolution Guards…

Perhaps it will be a real democracy…

[Fisherking]

Dose any one think that this Revolution will turn out better than all of the others that end in another dictatorship or prolonged civil war?

So far as I am aware, only the American Revolution ended with a stable representative government.

I am not saying that they were special, they got ever so lucky that the military power didn’t have designs to rule.


http://www.delawareonline.com/articl...ON11/101290306

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...f962c8a4a1b758

We know they object to a repressive authoritarian government but is it enough to keep it from happening again?

[Idaho]

This seems like it deserves it's own thread.

For my part, I fear this will go the way of the Iranian and Russian Revolutions: Well-meaning protesters will depose the government and create a power vacuum that radical thugs can step into and seize power. This also comports to my theory that 2011 will mirror 1979 in terms of US foreign policy debacles.

Opinions?

It may go that way if the US meddles with the process or starts objecting to the democratic choices of the Egyptian people.

Dose any one think that this Revolution will turn out better than all of the others that end in another dictatorship or prolonged civil war?

So far as I am aware, only the American Revolution ended with a stable representative government.

I am not saying that they were special, they got ever so lucky that the military power didn’t have designs to rule.


http://www.delawareonline.com/articl...ON11/101290306

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...f962c8a4a1b758

We know they object to a repressive authoritarian government but is it enough to keep it from happening again?

The American government where representative?! They were a small clique of wealthy men.

[Hax]

But the revolution is not religious in tone, unlike the earlier Iranian revolution. I think that's important to remember and while the Muslim Brotherhood has said that they're moving along with the revolution, not leading it.

[Lemur]

To everyone who's wringing their hands over whether or not a change in power will result in a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, I say get bent. The Economist did a good job of summing up my thinking:

Obviously, we should all be warily celebrating the possible fall of the Mubarak regime, not bemoaning it. Not because it will lead to any near-term benefits for us, but because it stands a chance of making Egyptians freer. [...]

That doesn't mean that such freedom will be in the interests of the United States, in the near term or really in any term we can envision. We should be cheered when other nations start to "find their voice", not because it is in our interests, but despite the fact that it may not be.

[Furunculus]

There is a risk of it but can’t blame them to try to get rid of their actual thugs and corrupted masters…
Because the alternative could be something else than either the Shah and the Savak or Khomeiny and the Revolution Guards…

Perhaps it will be a real democracy…

very much agreed, go the egyptian 'street'!

[Hax]

So if 30 percent of the voters decide that The Muslim Brotherhood is the best party, it's not a real democracy?

[PanzerJaeger]

The problem is that there are other emerging and re-emerging powers who are all too willing to prop up strong men around the world. Speaking as an American, standing for democracy and human rights is all well and good, but not if it leaves the United States at a strategic disadvantage in a critical region.

Egypt was a key ally against the Soviets and later against Islamic terrorism. Hopefully this unrest will yield a secular, democratic state that embraces Western values (lol), but President Obama needs to be prepared to deal aggressively with whoever comes to power to keep Egypt in the US' corner.

[Major Robert Dump]

The problem is that there are other emerging and re-emerging powers who are all too willing to prop up strong men around the world. Speaking as an American, standing for democracy and human rights is all well and good, but not if it leaves the United States at a strategic disadvantage in a critical region.

Egypt was a key ally against the Soviets and later against Islamic terrorism. Hopefully this unrest will yield a secular, democratic state that embraces Western values (lol), but President Obama needs to be prepared to deal aggressively with whoever comes to power to keep Egypt in the US' corner.

As an American, I would tend to agree with you. However, abscense a clear and immediate military threat it is hard to justify to anyone other than Americans that we support a bad regime to benefit us at their expense. Furthermore, where do we draw the line? Can nations continue to support oppressive regimes because it keeps their energy, labor and agricultural prices low? Doing such things also minimizes true acts of international humanitarianism and defense of human rights on the part of Americans.

There is no doubt that whoever takes the reigns in Egypt must be held accountable by both regional and world leaders. I can think of far worse regimes than the one being ousted in Egypt, and I find it highly likely that a fledgling democracy is going to fail, at least initially, and will require its problems to be ironed out.

The question is what level of patience do the Egyptians have, and what are their short term expectations? Short of long term financial infusions by multiple world partners, nothing is going to create equality and jobs overnight, but all too often the people involved in fledgling democracies and revolutions expect immediate results. I would hope the education level of Egyptians as a whole would prevent them from the same path as, say, Bolivia.

[Subotan]

A Parliamentary regime would work best. The Arab world desperately needs to move away from the idea that power can and should be vested all in one institution, and one man. We need an anti-de Gaulle to establish the Fourth Republic!

[Ronin]

I´m for whatever solution makes oil prices go down and not have some religious nut come into charge.
I have realized a long time ago no good solutions ever come out of that area......only stable or unstable ones.

[Furunculus]

Frankly, it is up to the people to not only demand change, but to keep on demanding change until they achieve a permanent political settlement is acceptable to them.

Otherwise the inevitable result is one-man, one-vote, one-time.

If the Egyptian people seriously want a modern representative parliamentary democracy then they have my full support, even if they have to spill rivers of Egyptian blood to achieve it.

It is their right to have the opportunity to live their lives as legally responsible adults, it is their responsibility to achieve it.

I'll back them to the hilt, literally.........

[Hax]

Will the Islamic Brotherhood accede to power, and if so what does that mean for the Middle East and for the West?

Initially, no. There is a Dutch specialist in the Middle East who said that the Muslim Brotherhood aren't as extremist as we make them out to be. They are Muslim-democrats in the sense that as of this moment, they are not so much interested in the restoration of the Caliphate or the creation of an Islamic state as they are in the creation of a democratic state in Egypt. Afterwards, we'll see. However, if there are free elections and the Muslim Brotherhood would gain a sizable part of parliament, they'd still have to let some of their statements go in order to create a coalition. But who knows what they'll do? They've already said they're not interested in being in the next government, should Mubarak's reign collapse and free elections would be held.

The problem is that there are other emerging and re-emerging powers who are all too willing to prop up strong men around the world. Speaking as an American, standing for democracy and human rights is all well and good, but not if it leaves the United States at a strategic disadvantage in a critical region.

This is the crux of the matter. If you ask me, America is lucky that the protesters haven't aimed their guns at the US, but at Mubarak. Seriously, and now you're going to say "Well, if they pick the wrong party, we should just overthrow the government/declare war/(fill in statement here)". You remember Iran, 1953? You know what happened in '79? Yeah, direct result of Operation Ajax. And now look at Iran, don't they just love the US.

Egypt was a key ally against the Soviets and later against Islamic terrorism. Hopefully this unrest will yield a secular, democratic state that embraces Western values (lol), but President Obama needs to be prepared to deal aggressively with whoever comes to power to keep Egypt in the US' corner.

Not a chance. Egypt is a largely Muslim country, of course Muslim values will play a large role in how the country is organised. Is that a threat to the United States? Rashid al-Ghannoushi is the leader of the Tunisian Islamist party, but listen what he has to say about certain things:

Rashid Al-Ghannushi represents a progressive strain in Islamic reformism, and continuously stresses the need for innovation against social injustice. He underscores the importance of local culture, and an Islamist movement based in the needs of Tunisians and not in "the obscure theories of Sayyid Qutb". He has sided with worker's rights, unionism, and women's education and rights, though those rights are based in Islam and not Western liberal feminism.[2]

Would you rather deal with a al-Ghannushi or a al-Zawahiri? You tell me. The best part of his party? They're non-violent.

but President Obama needs to be prepared to deal aggressively with whoever comes to power to keep Egypt in the US' corner.

Why don't you first wait and see what those "Islamist" parties have to say and what they do before we bomb Egypt into a glass crater, y'know, just in case.

A Parliamentary regime would work best. The Arab world desperately needs to move away from the idea that power can and should be vested all in one institution, and one man.

Wonder where they got that idea from.

[Kagemusha]

Its all up to what standing will the army take. As of now the army seems to be acting calm and they dont seem to have any wish to take a violent measures against the protestors.It could be that they will simply not support Mubarak and so his show is over.

[Prince Cobra]

I think Mubarak is doomed. The dilemma who will take over stays - the islamist or more secular circles. Yet, it is quite likely Israel to find himself in a more hostile environment than it is now. IMHO it is also very important that the USA doesn't try to influence the tide of events. Lessons from past (Iran) showed this is very counter-productive.

On a different aspect, the Jasmin Revolution in Tunis turned out to be contagious. It already reached Egypt and Jordan. I think any country in the region can be next. Lybia and Syria for example. I wonder how this will affect the Iranian regime that has also become quite unpopular. We may witness serious, even surprising rearrangement in the Middle East.

Its all up to what standing will the army take. As of now the army seems to be acting calm and they dont seem to have any wish to take a violent measures against the protestors.It could be that they will simply not support Mubarak and so his show is over.

Kage, I am not even sure if the army can do something for Mubarak. The shah was not saved by the bullets of the army, I doubt Mubarak could be. It will only lead to innocent casualties and radicalize the revolution.