Revolt/Revolution in Egypt

[Fisherking]

Dose any one think that this Revolution will turn out better than all of the others that end in another dictatorship or prolonged civil war?

So far as I am aware, only the American Revolution ended with a stable representative government.

I am not saying that they were special, they got ever so lucky that the military power didn’t have designs to rule.


http://www.delawareonline.com/articl...ON11/101290306

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...f962c8a4a1b758

We know they object to a repressive authoritarian government but is it enough to keep it from happening again?

[Idaho]

This seems like it deserves it's own thread.

For my part, I fear this will go the way of the Iranian and Russian Revolutions: Well-meaning protesters will depose the government and create a power vacuum that radical thugs can step into and seize power. This also comports to my theory that 2011 will mirror 1979 in terms of US foreign policy debacles.

Opinions?

It may go that way if the US meddles with the process or starts objecting to the democratic choices of the Egyptian people.

Dose any one think that this Revolution will turn out better than all of the others that end in another dictatorship or prolonged civil war?

So far as I am aware, only the American Revolution ended with a stable representative government.

I am not saying that they were special, they got ever so lucky that the military power didn’t have designs to rule.


http://www.delawareonline.com/articl...ON11/101290306

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...f962c8a4a1b758

We know they object to a repressive authoritarian government but is it enough to keep it from happening again?

The American government where representative?! They were a small clique of wealthy men.

[rory_20_uk]

It may go that way if the US meddles with the process or starts objecting to the democratic choices of the Egyptian people.

The American government where representative?! They were a small clique of wealthy men.

...And the victors write the history which unsurprisingly puts them in a positive light. What a coincidence.

The Americans (amongst many others) would much rather a Totalitarian Police State that they can do business with than something that the people might want, as the people are far more difficult to bribe to do what the Americans want - religion might get in the way. As Tom Hehrer's song "send the Marines" spells out so eloquently.

Small cliques have a history of hijacking upswells of indignation - the Bolsheviks were not what why the Revolution started, but they capitalised on it nevertheless.

Whoever gets in will be faced with a country with still low levels of education, inflation, poor job prospects. Removing the head doesn't solve structural problems. If you can't fix it, you can blame others as a scape goat - which is what extremists do best. Moderates rarely if ever capitalise when a society is in turmoil as extremists always have a nice, simple, clear plan.

Iran would also view trying to get some extremists in power a great investment to further distract from themselves - nutters in charge of the Suez canal is not something to be tolerated.

[Fisherking]

The American government where representative?! They were a small clique of wealthy men.

LOL Those you sight as a clique of wealthy men were at least chosen by the assemblies of their respective colonies to represent them.

It was an English possession after all, so naturally those in charge tended to be the wealthy.

It did however, turn out a bit better for all concerned then those which followed, for example; The French Revolution or The Russian Revolution.

Simply exposing the ideals of liberty often don’t translate into more freedom for the common man.


edit: I am not particularly interested in who’s interests new governments are formed where ever in the world.

I do hope that some may result in something other than thinly veiled dictatorships and that people enjoy some degree of freedom and liberty.

We can cheer them on but history usually points to it being more of the same.

[ICantSpellDawg]

LOL Those you sight as a clique of wealthy men were at least chosen by the assemblies of their respective colonies to represent them.

Except for women, children, and slaves... No system is perfect. As long as they go for loftier ideals than a Medieval styled theocracy it is a long term win for everyone.

[Fisherking]

Except for women, children, and slaves... No system is perfect. As long as they go for loftier ideals than a Medieval styled theocracy it is a long term win for everyone.

And at that time in history can you cite a government ( other than the Native American tribes) who did represent those interests?

[ICantSpellDawg]

No, my point is that movements are relative based on their location in time and place. The basic and transcendental ideals, however, are more or less the same. There were people who pushed for equal rights for women and slaves in both the American and French revolutions, but it wasn't implemented for many, many years.

[Fisherking]

No, my point is that movements are relative based on their location in time and place. The basic and transcendental ideals, however, are more or less the same. There were people who pushed for equal rights for women and slaves in both the American and French revolutions, but it wasn't implemented for many, many years.

equal rights under the law is sort of the key to any government we would like to see, past or present.



I had half expected you to site Brehon Law, as it did represent all classes but they were not seen as equal and each had their place.

Besides, it was little known out side Ireland and stamped out.

[Fragony]

It isn't necessarily a bad thing if the brotherhood gets a slice of the pie, as Egypt changes so must they. They are dangerous but only in the west and only because of islamphiles, they are no longer violent they have sworn that of decades ago. Might be of use as an ideological buffer.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Interestingly, the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have been caught completely unawares by the unfolding of events. While they are a subset of the protests, I was listening to a senior MB spokesman on al-Jazeera saying that the intentions of the people are much, much bigger than the interests of 1 party.

As someone who is part of movements organized by my own religion, I am somewhat less hostile to the idea of religious ideologies influencing political action. As someone who is also not entirely politically directed by my religion, I recognize the viability of that dichotomy in the mind of sensible people. I have, so far, not heard anything unsensible from the Muslim Brotherhood or Egyptians looking for Freedom. I am impressed by this movement and I beleive that we need to welcome Egyptians into the community of the free with open arms.

[Fragony]

Interestingly, the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have been caught completely unawares by the unfolding of events. While they are a subset of the protests, I was listening to a senior MB spokesman on al-Jazeera saying that the intentions of the people are much, much bigger than the interests of 1 party.

As someone who is part of movements organized by my own religion, I am somewhat less hostile to the idea of religious ideologies influencing political action. As someone who is also not entirely politically directed by my religion, I recognize the viability of that dichotomy in the mind of sensible people. I have, so far, not heard anything unsensible from the Muslim Brotherhood or Egyptians looking for Freedom. I am impressed by this movement and I beleive that we need to welcome Egyptians into the community of the free with open arms.

Couldn't agree more.

[Hax]

But the revolution is not religious in tone, unlike the earlier Iranian revolution. I think that's important to remember and while the Muslim Brotherhood has said that they're moving along with the revolution, not leading it.

[Subotan]

“For my part, I fear this will go the way of the Iranian and Russian Revolutions”: There is a risk of it but can’t blame them to try to get rid of their actual thugs and corrupted masters…
Because the alternative could be something else than either the Shah and the Savak or Khomeiny and the Revolution Guards…

Perhaps it will be a real democracy…

Fear of a misstep is the single most effective weapon authoritarians have against democrats and callers for change.

[Lemur]

To everyone who's wringing their hands over whether or not a change in power will result in a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, I say get bent. The Economist did a good job of summing up my thinking:

Obviously, we should all be warily celebrating the possible fall of the Mubarak regime, not bemoaning it. Not because it will lead to any near-term benefits for us, but because it stands a chance of making Egyptians freer. [...]

That doesn't mean that such freedom will be in the interests of the United States, in the near term or really in any term we can envision. We should be cheered when other nations start to "find their voice", not because it is in our interests, but despite the fact that it may not be.

[ICantSpellDawg]

To everyone who's wringing their hands over whether or not a change in power will result in a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, I say get bent. The Economist did a good job of summing up my thinking:

Obviously, we should all be warily celebrating the possible fall of the Mubarak regime, not bemoaning it. Not because it will lead to any near-term benefits for us, but because it stands a chance of making Egyptians freer. [...]

That doesn't mean that such freedom will be in the interests of the United States, in the near term or really in any term we can envision. We should be cheered when other nations start to "find their voice", not because it is in our interests, but despite the fact that it may not be.

My sentiments exactly.

Our support of these types of regimes is in our benefit in the short term but against our interests in the long term. I have always said; work with them when there is no alternative and be their best friend, but the second a dictator turns his back and there is an opportunity - stick a knife in his back. Dictators are the enemy irrespective of what ideology they pretend to serve. Their ideology is themselves. Our ideology is and always will be the freedom of people. When an oppressed people rise up, they save us trillions in what would otherwise be some varying grade of conflict like an Iraq or an Afghanistan. Our foreign policy goal is the freedom of people, not the aggrandizement of the United States.