I've done a bit of previous vote analysis and I think that Zack is a very solid vote. As we have just learned, Robbiecon aka Marge Simpson aka Sideshow Bob was the mafia mastermind. Let's examine his voting pattern:
Day 1:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
3 Diamondeye (Csargo, Khazaar, classical_hero)
2 TheFluffyOne (Nightbringer, God Emperor)
2 Yaropolk (Diamondeye, Romanic)
2 johnhughthom (pevergreen, Zack)
1 God Emperor (Death is yonder)
1 Capt Blackadder (Renata)
1 robbiecon (Capt Blackadder)
1 Renata (johnhughthom)
1 Csargo (robbiecon)
1 Nightbringer (Thefluffyone)
1 Romanic (Yaropolk)
1 Death is yonder (slashandburn)
Robbie votes for csargo, this may be a safe vote early on for a team mate to distance yourself. Robbie is shown in the night writeup (as Marge Simpson), establishing his pro-town credibility.
You better think twice before attacking Marjorie Simpson (nee Bouvier). I'll have my pan, and whatever else I can lay my hands on at the ready.
Now, I don't think Zack is the person who attacked me last night, but it's clear from my poor Bart being brutally picked upon yesterday that someone is out to kill us Simpsons.
So I'm gonna have to go with Vote: thefluffyone93
Robbie puts his townie cred to use protecting Zack. Robbie and Zack voting together for CH, neither one flinches to break the Zack-Khazar tie. In this game ties result in no lynch, so probably smart move. Renata's Quimby vote pushes Khazaar over Zack.
I have been reading the thread on my iPod, but writing isn't much fun on it.
Ok, well we have zack, who I firmly believe is being framed, and a dead obvious one at that. Slashandburn, well I do not see the sense in that either, where exactly did that come from? And fluffy is just a continuation from yesterday.
I'm thinking we should perhaps vote for Romanic, he's really taken control of the game, what with posting vote counts etc. Perhaps he's trying to emphasise who is currently being voted for, so that those who haven't voted yet just go for those with more votes. Also he voted for zack after Yaropolk, even stating that it seemed too easy a set up but going with it anyway.
I won't vote for Romanic at this venture, as it is merely speculation, but if I , Marge should be attacked again, I'd like if you could lynch him. Also he's one of those who hasn't really implied who he is, while many have hinted.
Once again robbie makes a post to protect Zack, but doesn't come to his aid to break the tie. Tied vote results in no lynch. Renata (aka tie breaker) is killed of at night.
Early pressure on Zack. Immediately after Fluffy's vote on Zack, robbie responds with a post defending him, then votes for CH. CH bandwagon choo choo chooses ralphie!
Tie between Csargo and Pever results in no lynch. Neither Zack nor robbie break the tie. Robbie doesn't vote at all. Potentially Csargo is one of the scum who they wanted to save (see Day 1 analysis)
Conclusion:
Clearly robbie flinched almost every time Zack was near the top of the list. I think Zack is a very good lynch candidate for today. The case on Csargo is weaker, but if we have a roleblocker or investigator among us, he is a good candidate for tonight.
Don't want to vote for your partner, eh robbiecon?
Originally Posted by God Emperor
are you forgetting he was attacked??
This does look like Zack DID forget. I don't think mafia would forget who'd they'd attacked and failed to kill. But if robbiecon *did* choose the other two, then it's possible his voting record could be of use. I think it's worth looking at, beyond just God Emperor.
Edit @yaropolk -- see my comment here and tell me what you think it says about Zack. Then I'll read your post. :)
no matter how bad this may look, I think Yarapolk may be right, as the game concept matches that ATPG would have allowed Robbiecon to pick his team mates :) Unvote; Vote: Zack
In the game of chess you can never let your adversary see your pieces.
I have got a plan so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel
Robbie puts his townie cred to use protecting Zack. Robbie and Zack voting together for CH, neither one flinches to break the Zack-Khazar tie. In this game ties result in no lynch, so probably smart move. Renata's Quimby vote pushes Khazaar over Zack.
I don't know that I buy this. What were the circumstances of this vote at the time that robbie made it? Robbie at this point has townie cred out the wazoo. If the timing was appropriate, he could have voted Khazaar outright and never been called on it even if Zack later flipped scum. And as I commented before in response to God Emperor's knee-jerk first response to my tie-break (that it wasn't scummy), a tie involving mafia *is* dangerous, if only because a single late vote can change things so easily.
Once again robbie makes a post to protect Zack, but doesn't come to his aid to break the tie. Tied vote results in no lynch. Renata (aka tie breaker) is killed of at night.
And again, he easily could have. He'd voted fluffy the previous day, how difficult would it have been to justify a repeat? Especially after stating so confidently that Zack is a frame.
Let me look at it another way for a moment. Robbie must have known a second attack would take him out. It's impossible to guess how worried he would be about a second attack, but he must have been somewhat worried. Almost certainly he would have been more worried about that than about townie condemnation. So he would have wanted to be careful about ever giving the mafia any additional incentive to go after him. At the very least I think that means not voting for the mafia. But I'm not sure it would go so far as outright confidence that a mafia teammate was being framed. That's the kind of thing the mafia says when they know they are right, isn't it?
--------------------------------------
As an aside:
Originally Posted by robbiecon
Also he's one of those who hasn't really implied who he is, while many have hinted.
(In reference to Romanic.) Who *had* hinted at that point, who is still alive? Put a notch on the suspicion meter for anyone who fits.
-------------------------------------------
The day four vote on CH came at a time when Zack had only two votes while CH had four; hardly an emergency situation.
Don't get me wrong; I do see the pattern, but I'm not sure it means what you're saying it does. It could as easily have been intended as a way for robbiecon to make himself look good when Zack was lynched; it could have been a "message" from robbie to the killing scum that he didn't believe Zack *would* be lynched, and that they should just kill him (again making robbie look good); it could have been an attempt to make Zack look bad if robbie himself was attacked a second time; it could have been all kinds of things.
Originally Posted by yaropolk
Tie between Csargo and Pever results in no lynch. Neither Zack nor robbie break the tie. Robbie doesn't vote at all. Potentially Csargo is one of the scum who they wanted to save (see Day 1 analysis)
Conclusion:
Clearly robbie flinched almost every time Zack was near the top of the list. I think Zack is a very good lynch candidate for today. The case on Csargo is weaker, but if we have a roleblocker or investigator among us, he is a good candidate for tonight.
You have the strangest definition of "flinch". Robbie does support Zack verbally, but does he put his money where his mouth is? Day two the timing needs to be clarified. Day three his reaction is to ... do nothing. Day four Zack is not actually in danger when robbie "reacts". And day five his reaction is to ... do nothing. That's practically the opposite of a flinch.
All I can say is that if Zack is mafia, robbie treated the situation very strangely, with the strong verbal support combined with almost no action taken to actually spare him the lynch. That's virtually the opposite of what you normally see from nervous mafia teammates.
There is no link for your Zack post, just a quote. You have to do "Reply with quote" to get a link.
There is something to be said for verbally defending someone, but not voting unless absolutely necessary. Words are not easy to analyze - i spent an hour looking at them this morning. The voting trend is easy to look up and will be analyzed. Day 4 flinch was early in the phase before CH bandwagon was developed, and was posted immediately after fluffy's vote on Zack.
For the life of me I cannot understand why people are so obsessed with lynching me this game. Anyone who votes for me today should be looked at very suspiciously, especially after I turn up innocent.
Here's this Role PM that in all likelihood will not change anything:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
Chief Clancy Wiggum
Role: Chief Clancy Wiggum Alignment: Innocent
Victory Condition: All the murderers are wiped out. (Townie team victory)
Aruba, Jamaica, oo I wanna take ya,
to Bermuda, Bahama, come on pretty mama Vote: Csargo, Montego, baby why don't we go
down to Kokomo,
get there fast
and then we'll take it slow
that's where we wanna go,
way down to Kokomo.
Making the tally: DE 2, Fluffy 2, JHT 1, GE 1, Capt Blackadder 1, robbie 1, Yaropolk 1, Renata 1, Csargo 1.
Not sure if Robbie would vote his teammates on day 1, and not sure if he would consider it a dangerous move to bring him up, when just another vote would tied him to the lead. I think it's somewhat more likely that Robbie wouldn't do that, meaning Csargo looks Townier from this.
Day 2, he votes Fluffy.
Originally Posted by robbiecon
You better think twice before attacking Marjorie Simpson (nee Bouvier). I'll have my pan, and whatever else I can lay my hands on at the ready.
Now, I don't think Zack is the person who attacked me last night, but it's clear from my poor Bart being brutally picked upon yesterday that someone is out to kill us Simpsons.
This is again helping Zack, and very much antagonizing classical (who ended up lynched).
Day 5, he votes Capt Blackadder.
Originally Posted by robbiecon
It is possible that Willie is mafia, but I wouldn't be out and out convinced of it.
The random vote on Csargo was somewhat necessary given the lack of information, even though many people have seemed scummy at various times.
I'll vote: Captain Blackadder.
Making the tally : pever 3, Csargo 1, Capt Blackadder 1.
Somewhat antagonizing Capt Blackadder, but we can't be certain. pever looked like a good candidate at the time and robbie may have concluded that he could safely vote one of his teammates to distance himself.
Since Csargo was the only player, other than the tally leader, pever, I think there's also a possibility (slim perhaps) that pever/Csargo are his teammates. If pever was his teammate, and Csargo wasn't, then a vote on Csargo would make sense here, to help pever.
Anyway, this vote is hard to read. All the votees are still alive, and robbie isn't helping anyone.
I'm very biased with this vote , so you might want to draw your own conclusions about me. However I think his vote implies that Robbie might have been satisfied with a GE lynch. If GE was his partner, I'd expect him to place a vote on a player with 1 vote, as a rescue attempt.
In a nutshell, if you don't want to read this analysis, I'd say that the scum levels of some players changed like this:
Zack ++++ (yummy scummy)
GE -- (possibly not scum)
Fluffy ---- (I'd be very surprised)
with other maginal calls about Csargo, pever, Capt Black and myself.
Or maybe robbiecon kept insisting that I was innocent because he was the head honcho of the mafia? And he had...
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
PIS!!!
Originally Posted by Romanic
This is again helping Zack, and very much antagonizing classical (who ended up lynched).
Er, our communication must have been off on that one.
Originally Posted by Zack
Vote: fluffy
This isn't out of the ordinary for classical_hero to act this way. Sorry, but not much time to say anything else; company's over.
I'm disappointed and frustrated by you lot. Especially you, Romanic.
Zack ++++ (yummy scummy)
GE -- (possibly not scum)
This contradicts what you have said in the thread up to this point.
Originally Posted by Romanic
I'm in, let's do this.
unvote; vote: God Emperor
Originally Posted by Romanic
Hmmm, no update still? Can we still vote?
I can't sleep and I am second guessing myself. No lynch doesn't look like a good idea.
unvote fluffy; vote: Zack
^This was after this post:
Originally Posted by Romanic
I didn't particularly care about voting for Zack, I did it to see who would follow behind me, and I've been of GE's (first) opinion all along: Zack is too easy a target and people going after him should be suspected. Now I see that GE changed his mind, but I didn't.
Yes Zack gave weak reasons to vote Fluffy, and yes he may not be looking hard for Scum, but I think the fact that DIY was kiilled yesterday, after voting for Zack, points toward a frame attempt rather than Zack getting rid of people suspecting him.
unvote Zack; vote: slashandburn
For backing down when it appears that voting Zack could be seen as a bad move.
How did you go from "I'm in, let's do this" [and what you have said regarding myself above] to "Zack ++++ (yummy scummy)
GE -- (possibly not scum)"? Because the mafia godfather whom presumably knows who is innocent and who is not has insisted I'm innocent?
with other maginal calls about Csargo
I recall you making stronger statements than this concerning Csargo.
This contradicts what you have said in the thread up to this point.
What are you trying to prove here? That my opinion of you changed after we learned that Robbie was mafia?
I'm not denying it. Before last night, everything was "what ifs", "buts" and "maybes", and we now have good evidence to work with. Robbie's votes helped you twice.
How did you go from "I'm in, let's do this" [and what you have said regarding myself above] to "Zack ++++ (yummy scummy)
GE -- (possibly not scum)"? Because the mafia godfather whom presumably knows who is innocent and who is not has insisted I'm innocent?
If you read my previous post, you would know why I think GE is less likely innocent (robbie didn't protect him) and why you are likely (robbie's votes helping you). Makes me wonder if you read my post.
I recall you making stronger statements than this concerning Csargo.
Sure, when we were still working with peanuts, but now we have evidence to work with. This just seems like a bad attempt to defend yourself.
If you read my previous post, you would know why I think GE is less likely innocent (robbie didn't protect him) and why you are likely (robbie's votes helping you). Makes me wonder if you read my post.
Yes, I didn't read it. This is why I quoted a specific part of it that I would have skimmed over if I hadn't read your post.
Okay, I think I'm up to date. sorry you had to leave renata!
as to the vote, I simply don't see the zack case as plausible. The evidence given makes sense, but it all depends on robbiecon knowing who zack was. If robbie had known that zack was mafia, surely zack would have known the same, and would not have killed robbiecon.
Unless their is some kind of PVC to kill the mafia boss.
Basically I think this is just a continued framing of zack, and who is leading the charge? yaropolk
Until now you have been staying pretty quiet, safe votes, no cross voting between you and robbie, until now when you come out with this big case once the heat is finally starting to cool on zack.
I may be wrong, but there are already more than enough votes on Zack if you are right, so vote:yaropolk
Moderator of The Throne Room
“Being a Humanist means trying to behave decently without expectation of rewards or punishment after you are dead.” ― Kurt Vonnegut
"Education: that which reveals to the wise, and conceals from the stupid, the vast limits of their knowledge." ― Mark Twain
"Imagination is a quality given a man to compensate him for what he is not, and a sense of humor was provided to console him for what he is." ― Oscar Wilde
“While money can't buy happiness, it certainly lets you choose your own form of misery.” ― Groucho Marx
If robbie had known that zack was mafia, surely zack would have known the same, and would not have killed robbiecon.
Unless their is some kind of PVC to kill the mafia boss.
[/b]
I doubt that is the case. I can explain why. Robbiecon picks his buddies (all points towards this) , but they do not know that he is the boss. (since they killed Robbie it's not even certain that they knew that there was such a godfather)
The reason I say it's unlikely that they would know him just because he knows them, is because of the rule of no talk outside of gamethread.
This is not a rule ATPG usually uses, and this scenario may explain why it has been taken in use this time
In the game of chess you can never let your adversary see your pieces.
I have got a plan so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel
The reason I say it's unlikely that they would know him just because he knows them, is because of the rule of no talk outside of gamethread.
In every game I have seen where private communication wasn't allowed (including ones I have hosted), allowances were made for mafia and any other special groups.
As for the rest of your post, could you explain more? [You seem to know a lot concerning the matter. ]
Waylon Smithers: "There is obviously still a murderer on the loose. According to the vote tally, you all believe that it was..... Chief Wiggum."
Chief Wiggum: "What? See, this is why you should leave the policing up to the professionals; the police! You're saying I murdered my own little boy, Ralphie?"
Moe the Bartender: "There! Right there, he admitted it! Off with his head!"
Barney Gumble: "The angry, violent mob has spoken!" *BELCH*
Groundskeeper Willie: "Now it's Willie's turn! Arrest Willie for growing those special plants indoors, will ya? ....Nobody tells Willie when and where he can grow potatoes!"
Comic Book Guy: "Remember that ticket you gave me for 'waddling down the sidewalk without a permit?' Well let's see you waddle your way out of this one!"
Hans Moleman: "Kill..... kill.... kill.... kill....."
Homer Simpson: "What the old guy said! Kill! Kill! Kill!"
Chief Wiggum: "That's it, I'm bringing you all in for drunk and disorderly conduct, resisting arrest, threatening a police officer, and having more than two people gathered together in a given place without offering free donuts!"
Askthepizzaguy- Charles Montgomery Burns (Innocent)
Diamondeye- Bart Simpson (Innocent)
Khazaar- Sideshow Mel (Innocent)
Death is yonder- Ned Flanders (Innocent)
Renata- Mayor "Diamond" Joe Quimby (Innocent)
Classical_hero- Lisa Simpson (Innocent)
Johnhughthom- Ralph Wiggum (Innocent)
Robbiecon- Sideshow Bob (MAFIA MASTERMIND)
Zack- Clancy Wiggum (Innocent)
And so ends my attempted venture at being more vocal.
I had a nagging suspicion after a while that Zack was being left alive as lynch bait. Probably best to clear this out of the way as the town approaches the end game stage.
Apologies Zack
You cannot add days to life but you can add life to days.
And so ends my attempted venture at being more vocal.
I had a nagging suspicion after a while that Zack was being left alive as lynch bait. Probably best to clear this out of the way as the town approaches the end game stage.
Apologies Zack
Calm down, Neddily-Diddly-Diddly-Diddly. You tried your best, mistaken identity-dentity-dentity-dentity. No need to apologize, whoopsie-daisily-daisily-daisily....
agreed. Pever has been acting very strangely all game, and now seems to have gone absent, when he was posting a lot in the beginning. In fact, he seemed to go absent right after I voted for him...
As to yaro, well, he made sure we all kept going for Zack, possibly making sure the frame on zack went according to his plan.
Moderator of The Throne Room
“Being a Humanist means trying to behave decently without expectation of rewards or punishment after you are dead.” ― Kurt Vonnegut
"Education: that which reveals to the wise, and conceals from the stupid, the vast limits of their knowledge." ― Mark Twain
"Imagination is a quality given a man to compensate him for what he is not, and a sense of humor was provided to console him for what he is." ― Oscar Wilde
“While money can't buy happiness, it certainly lets you choose your own form of misery.” ― Groucho Marx
Re: The Half Monty
Originally Posted by robbiecon
Reply With Quote
Much more so if Zack turns up innocent.
, so you might want to draw your own conclusions about me. However I think his vote implies that Robbie might have been satisfied with a GE lynch. If GE was his partner, I'd expect him to place a vote on a player with 1 vote, as a rescue attempt.
]
!
Bookmarks