2012 Electiageddon Electopolypse Now: A Field Guide to the Repubs

[Lemur]

Nate Silver does a nice round-up of the potential Repub candidates. I know it's a bit early for this sort of thing, but I thought it worth discussing. GOP Orgahs, whom do you like? Dislike? Reasons?

One can certainly debate exactly what it means to be a moderate or a conservative, and exactly where any particular candidate falls along this spectrum. Likewise, the insider/outsider dimension is somewhat blurry: is a potential candidate like Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina, who aligns himself with the Tea Party but is also an influential senator, a part of the Republican establishment or an opponent of it? So my placement of the candidates is necessarily approximate.

With that said, it is exceptionally important to consider how the candidates are positioned relative to one another. Too often, I see analyses of candidates that operate through what I’d call a checkbox paradigm, tallying up individual candidates’ strengths and weaknesses but not thinking deeply about how they will compete with one another for votes. If you like, you can think of the circles on my chart as stars or planets that exert gravitational forces on one another, seeking to clear their own safe space in the galaxy while at the same time stealing matter (voters) from their opponents.

There are two more kinds of information embedded in the chart. First, the area of each candidate’s circle is proportional to their perceived likelihood of winning the nomination, according to the Intrade betting market. Mitt Romney’s circle is drawn many times the size of the one for the relatively obscure talk-radio host Herman Cain because Intrade rates Mr. Romney many times as likely to be nominated. [...]

[T]he color of each circle reflects the region the candidate is from: blue for the Northeast, red for the South, green for the Midwest, and yellow for the West.

[Subotan]

Electiageddon? I like that word. A lot.

[gaelic cowboy]

One thing that always intrigues me about America is the idea that candidates may be picked that appeal to a narrow base in there parties,but then find they lack appeal nationally. How would you all say the respective candidates poll nationally versus inside the party

[Husar]

One thing that always intrigues me about America is the idea that candidates may be picked that appeal to a narrow base in there parties,but then find they lack appeal nationally. How would you all say the respective candidates poll nationally versus inside the party

That's because America is so polarized between the rightists and the even more rightists.
But an interesting question, at the moment though the Democrats may support a whackier candidate just because they hope it makes him/the Republicans more likely to lose in the end.

I'm intrigued by Romney getting the biggest blob, should make TuffStuff happy but I thought hardly anyone liked the guy last time?

[Beirut]

Anybody but Romney, please. The guy is a hairdo and looks phonier than a bad photocopy of a three-dollar bill.

[Ronin]

Jon Stewart is gonna have a field day with this bunch of genius.