Civil War in Libya

[Prince Cobra]

I completely disagree. History is filled with failed revolutions put down by military force. Revolutions made up of mostly unarmed protestors are that much easier to break. As we witnessed yesterday, pro-regime forces rather easily crushed an uprising in Tripoli with force of arms.

This will come down to who has the support of the majority of the military.

Yes, the Shah of Iran is a good example. The other slightly outdated examples is trying to save Metternich during the revolutions in 1848 (which was obviously futile and never tried) or Charles X with the Swiss guard in 1830. I can't remember many historical examples to support your idea.

Gadafi simply can't muster enough mercenaries to crush the rebellion. And I am not very sure how stable is the control of Tripoli that is supposed to be most loyal to Gadaffi because it is where his main forces should have been.

Revolution is started by unarmed protestors and in the process of the revolution these people get good arms.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Yes, the Shah of Iran is a good example. The other slightly outdated examples is trying to save Metternich during the revolutions in 1848 (which was obviously futile and never tried) or Charles X with the Swiss guard in 1830. I can't remember many historical examples to support your idea.

Gadafi simply can't muster enough mercenaries to crush the rebellion. And I am not very sure how stable is the control of Tripoli that is supposed to be most loyal to Gadaffi because it is where his main forces should have been.

Revolution is started by unarmed protestors and in the process of the revolution these people get good arms.

How about the revolution in India in the 19th Century, or the post-Gulf War revolt of the Marsh Arabs in Iraq?

PJ is correct that revolutions can be put down, but not easily.

[PanzerJaeger]

Yes, the Shah of Iran is a good example. The other slightly outdated examples is trying to save Metternich during the revolutions in 1848 (which was obviously futile and never tried) or Charles X with the Swiss guard in 1830. I can't remember many historical examples to support your idea.

Think harder?

Here are a few off the top of my head. You could really throw in a lot of Civil Wars as well where the side breaking away failed to gain independence such as America's, but I wanted to keep it simple.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillipine_American_war

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_rebellion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_Tibetan_uprising

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungari...lution_of_1956

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebelli...e_Seven_States

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Jewish_Revolt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiananm...otests_of_1989

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Intifada

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Uprising_in_Karbala

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thammas...tober_protests

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Sa...asant_uprising

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitchfork_Uprising

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaocen_Revolt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokehs_Rebellion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Rising

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boer_Revolt

[HoreTore]

You forgot the spanish civil war?!?!?!

[Ronin]

You forgot the spanish civil war?!?!?!

in the spanish civil war the "revolutionaries" were the fascists...so that's an example of a revolution working.....not being put down.

[HoreTore]

in the spanish civil war the "revolutionaries" were the fascists...so that's an example of a revolution working.....not being put down.

That's a mighty simplistic view... The spanish republic was almost evenly divided between the nationalists and republicans, and the republicans also promised a violent revolution if they lost the election.

If it had been the nationalists who got the tiny majority in the last election, the revoution would've been started by the republicans and the scenario would fit perfectly with what we're seeing now.

Apart from that minor detail, the spanish civil war fits perfectly with the "popular uprising crushed by authoritarian state"-scenario.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That's a mighty simplistic view... The spanish republic was almost evenly divided between the nationalists and republicans, and the republicans also promised a violent revolution if they lost the election.

If it had been the nationalists who got the tiny majority in the last election, the revoution would've been started by the republicans and the scenario would fit perfectly with what we're seeing now.

Apart from that minor detail, the spanish civil war fits perfectly with the "popular uprising crushed by authoritarian state"-scenario.

Except that it was the Socialists who precipitated the crisis by trying to overthrow the monarchy. You know the Spanish Kings HoreTore, they're the royals that actively safe-guard the freedom of their people.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Except that it was the Socialists who precipitated the crisis by trying to overthrow the monarchy. You know the Spanish Kings HoreTore, they're the royals that actively safe-guard the freedom of their people.

Oh what bollox again. The king did not support freedom, the king supported (was the puppet of) Prime de Rivera, the Spanish dictator. When the dictator died, the monarchy was abolished too. In its place came the Spanish Republic, a democratically established, free republic. This was way back in 1931.

The monarchy had been long gone when the republic was violently overthrown by insurrectionists. The civil war started in 1936 when the fascist and monarchist insurrectionists sought to overthrow the free republic. When they succeeded, neither a free country nor a monarchy resulted, but Franco's dictatorship was imposed.