The current situation in Libya is reminiscent of the situation in Iraq in 1991. Back then, it was expected that Saddam Hussein would soon be overthrown by a popular revolt.
Saddam used his powerful military forces to crush the uprising. Despite international sanctions, he remained in power for another 12 years.
Turning to Libya, it should be no surprise to anyone with a military background that in a desert environment with few large towns and extended lines of communication, Gaddafi’s sub-standard military forces are managing to contain an over-extended and largely disorganised revolutionary rabble - even though its fighters might number in the thousands.
It is unlikely that a countrywide no-fly zone would make a decisive difference to the course of the conflict. Colonel Gaddafi’s forces have large quantities of artillery and mortars and other indirect fire weapons, as well as thousands of armoured vehicles. While much of the equipment is obsolete by Western standards, it is still effective against the poorly equipped anti-Gaddafi forces. Importantly, Gaddafi’s officer corps understands the logistic demands of deployed forces.
Before the uprising, the total number of Libyan personnel in the defence force was estimated by the authoritative International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) at 119,000, with 45,000 reservists. The army is organised into 11 border defence and four security zones, one regime security brigade, 10 tank battalions, 10 mechanised infantry battalions, 18 infantry battalions, six commando battalions, 22 artillery battalions, four surface-to-surface missile (SSM) brigades and seven air defence artillery battalions. It has over 2,000 tanks.
The main suppliers have been Russia, China and Brazil. This year, additional supplies have come from Belarus.
This substantial military force was reduced by defections after the uprising began on February 15, but it is probably safe to assume that Gaddafi could still field at least half that force.
WikiLeaks revealed that in 2009 that the British SAS was providing training to Libyan special forces so we can reasonably assume they are an effective and reliable element.
Much of the international rhetoric about displacing Gaddafi is unconvincing. Many nation states have an interest in seeing the jasmine revolution dissipate in the sands of the Libyan desert, including the Arab Gulf countries, Iran, Israel and the United States – and, further afield, China. The established order in the Middle East suits powerful strategic and economic interests. A domino-like people’s revolution running out of control could threaten regimes that are important allies of the West.
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