Civil War in Libya

**Viking** · 03-24-2011, 18:09

Which means bombing.

**Sarmatian** · 03-24-2011, 19:29

Good thing they didn't ask for bombing then, they might have gotten a nuclear strike.

**Viking** · 03-24-2011, 21:16

What Amr Moussa (sp??) objected to, was presumably the initial bombing of Tripoli, which was necessary given the AA installations in the city - thus a part of the NFZ.

**Dâriûsh** · 03-25-2011, 11:11

Originally Posted by Idaho

There is some doubt about the stories of Gadaffi's mercenary hordes. Libya is a more complex place than many think.

Mercenaries or Libyans from Fezzan?

Idaho replied to one of my posts in the Bahrain thread, but his input is very relevant here.

I concede to Idaho that I gave the rebel propaganda department’s statements on supposedly African mercenaries more credit than they deserved. Nor was I critical enough of the sources on these “mercenaries”.

I know that there were mercenary contract adverts in newspapers in several countries, but it seems the rebels are now rounding up every dark-skinned man, Libyan or not, and presenting them to the world press as captured African mercenaries.

It reminds me of Afghanistan during the liberation in 2001. Locals would round up every Arab speaker, native Arab-Afghan or foreigner, and turn them in as “Al-Qaeda terrorists” to get a reward.

**Viking** · 03-25-2011, 14:16

I'm not buying that one. I agree that the mercenary scare appears to be largely inaccurate, but I have seen many black skinned rebel fighters.

**Viking** · 03-26-2011, 12:08

The stalemate has been broken in the east; with the aid of what has been described as "massive" allied aistrikes, the rebels recapture the city of Ajdabiya; a city with about 100,000 inhabitants.

They are, or will soon, head for Brega - and probably Ras Lanuf after that. The loyalists should be unable to move up reinforcing tanks to the front, so I assume these two cities will fall without too much trouble.

The big question then, is Sirte. If the population there is largely loyal, and are willing to put up a fight - then it could become a tricky place, not the least given the UN mandate of 'protecting civilians'. If it isn't, then one could expect it to fall - and the road to Misrata will be relatively "open".

**TinCow** · 03-26-2011, 15:30

Originally Posted by Viking

They are, or will soon, head for Brega - and probably Ras Lanuf after that. The loyalists should be unable to move up reinforcing tanks to the front, so I assume these two cities will fall without too much trouble.

Yes, Brega is a much smaller city (a few thousand, not 100,000) and it is off of the main road, not straddling it. It is therefore a much poorer defensive location than Ajdabiya. Ras Lanuf isn't really even a town, just an oil facility with some homes for workers. It's an even worse defensive location. So, both of those aren't likely to be serious hurdles for the rebels. Like you said, Sirte is the real test. If they can take Sirte, there are no other significant towns before they reach Misrata, which appears to be holding out adequately. If they can't, this will be a very long struggle.