Civil War in Libya

[Furunculus]

Gaddafi was in power for 42 years. He supported the IRA, he had an airliner blown up above Scotland.

Social media allowed the rebels to organise and attack. Yes NATO helped out getting rid of the heavy units and that is a good thing. But the win was on the ground, by the people.

To use this as a reason for the UK and France to remain permanent members on the security council is a poor choice... again 42 years of provocation and only the med to sail across... still couldn't do it. People power did.

you fail to understand.

the libya intervention was justified using R2P.

its success will set a precedent.

therefore 'minor' nations have now carved themselves a new role on the SC - enforcement of UNSC resolutions.

[Hax]

3. Hussein and his Ba'aths' were much more systematic in destroying opposition and no rebel movement would have stood a chance without considerable backing and aid.

Interesting that you should mention this. In fact, there was a rebel movement centered around Basra that rose up against Saddam Hussein. For some reason, considerable backing and aid never came.

[Papewaio]

you fail to understand.

the libya intervention was justified using R2P.

its success will set a precedent.

therefore 'minor' nations have now carved themselves a new role on the SC - enforcement of UNSC resolutions.

So by doing what they should be enforcing resolutions, they should retain a seat that was determined by the winners of a conflict over 60 years ago. Why not in the modern world let Germany have a permanent seat or Japan?

UK and France are not minor powers (yet). What you're not seeing is that the permanent members are major ones and that minor ones come and go on non-permanent seats. Lose that power though and you can expect to lose the seat no matter how much you hump the UN's leg.

My guess is that UK and France probably won't lose their permanent seats (because they have powerful Allies), other nations instead will get one. For instance India could be added in the next twenty to forty years.

However it is not without precedent that they could lose them... it would take them to do something stupid first however like leaving the UN.

[Furunculus]

So by doing what they should be enforcing resolutions, they should retain a seat that was determined by the winners of a conflict over 60 years ago. Why not in the modern world let Germany have a permanent seat or Japan?

UK and France are not minor powers (yet). What you're not seeing is that the permanent members are major ones and that minor ones come and go on non-permanent seats. Lose that power though and you can expect to lose the seat no matter how much you hump the UN's leg.

My guess is that UK and France probably won't lose their permanent seats (because they have powerful Allies), other nations instead will get one. For instance India could be added in the next twenty to forty years.

However it is not without precedent that they could lose them... it would take them to do something stupid first however like leaving the UN.

because germany and japan have neither the will nor the capability for sovereign and strategic power projection, obviously.
neither does china or russia for that matter, but they have a lot of territory and a lot of people/nukes.

i used the word 'minor' deliberately, by 2050 the UK will be the 7-9 largest economic power, and france the 8-12 largest (likewise Germany), we will be very small compared to US, India, China and Brazil. We won't have huge landmass or massive populations, we will no longer be recognised leaders in tech innovation, just one among many. if we want to keep those seats it will be because of R2P.

[Papewaio]

The Arab spring is just a start.

The internet is still young too.

If we are lucky we won't hit a singularity by 2050.

So my guess by then there just won't be enough places to R2P to justify a permanent membership in the UN security council, I think it will have to be found through different means... and ones that don't reek of colonialistic intent either... Gaddafi was one of the longest running dictators in history whose people rose up against him... those events are not the norm they are the exception where R2P looks good... the vast majority of the time things are a lot more messy... of course the UK has a much better streak of interfering and improving whilst the USA is out for a duck on that one.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The Arab spring is just a start.

The internet is still young too.

If we are lucky we won't hit a singularity by 2050.

So my guess by then there just won't be enough places to R2P to justify a permanent membership in the UN security council, I think it will have to be found through different means... and ones that don't reek of colonialistic intent either... Gaddafi was one of the longest running dictators in history whose people rose up against him... those events are not the norm they are the exception where R2P looks good... the vast majority of the time things are a lot more messy... of course the UK has a much better streak of interfering and improving whilst the USA is out for a duck on that one.

The Libyan intervention is not Colonialistic, it sits along with the Ivory Coast one as an example of Western Powers using UN resolutions to pressure despots, and then supporting their removal through force.

Here's someone from the Guardian who doesn't get it: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...n-intervention

Gaddafi could not have been felled without outside intervention to level the field between him and his opponents, that is all the UK and France did, not "Western armies" were used to oust him, Libyans bled and died for his removal and all the West did was take away his trump cards, his planes tanks and artillery.

Also from the Guardian, happy thoughts: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...arab-uprisings

[Fisherking]

Yes, the Rebels started their own central bank back in March. I hear Goldman Sachs has control. I have also heard that oil companies are already negotiating deals.

I guess we just sit back and see how it all goes.

I just expect another dictator ship only one that the west feels more secure with.

[HoreTore]

Yes, the Rebels started their own central bank back in March. I hear Goldman Sachs has control. I have also heard that oil companies are already negotiating deals.

I guess we just sit back and see how it all goes.

I just expect another dictator ship only one that the west feels more secure with.

Goldman Sachs is, for all its recent scumbaggery, still a renowned and incredibly huge bank. Besides, all the other ones with the size, experience and power to help an upstart government are also scumbags. The new government has shown wisdom in consulting financial matters with someone outside, I really don't think they would've been able to handle the economy alone in the first year.

Libya is an oil country. They'll have to sell it of course, so it's only logical that they're making deals. Why on earth wouldn't they?

None of this is a cause for concern. On the contrary, it's a sign that things are progressing towards a functioning state.

[Furunculus]

The Libyan intervention is not Colonialistic, it sits along with the Ivory Coast one as an example of Western Powers using UN resolutions to pressure despots, and then supporting their removal through force.

Here's someone from the Guardian who doesn't get it: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...n-intervention

Gaddafi could not have been felled without outside intervention to level the field between him and his opponents, that is all the UK and France did, not "Western armies" were used to oust him, Libyans bled and died for his removal and all the West did was take away his trump cards, his planes tanks and artillery.

Also from the Guardian, happy thoughts: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...arab-uprisings

^ wot he said ^

at the end of the day the SC boils down to the threat of force in the face of non-compliance against UN resolutions.

to do that you need to be able to project power, the three most capable nations in this are the US, UK, and France, and we will struggle to justify a permanent veto via any other criteria, so we will push military interventions.

ergo R2P is essential
ergo Libya was damned handy

[Papewaio]

The Libyan intervention is not Colonialistic, it sits along with the Ivory Coast one as an example of Western Powers using UN resolutions to pressure despots, and then supporting their removal through force.

Yes and I stated that there is going to be very few like oppourtunites in the future the rest will either be more complex or reek of colonial interference.
"So my guess by then there just won't be enough places to R2P to justify a permanent membership in the UN security council, I think it will have to be found through different means... and ones that don't reek of colonialistic intent either"

So there is going to be very little oppourtunities to get involved in situations like this... and typically the UN has not gotten involved in civil wars either until they are sure war crimes are being committed.


So lets look at it:

First you need a dictator and they seem to be a dying breed.

Second there has to be no hint of colonial intervention to keep it smelling like roses.

Third you need both China and Russia to not veto it.

Fourth you don't want either of them actually doing the force projection as they will steal your thunder.

Fifth you need no other nation to step up to the plate and outperform either the UK or France.

Sixth, Fusion isn't invented because no one is going to intervene for heavy water.

Yeah, I can see this is a game winning plan with no chances that anything can go wrong... good luck for the next fifty years on that one.

[Furunculus]

Yes and I stated that there is going to be very few like oppourtunites in the future the rest will either be more complex or reek of colonial interference.
"So my guess by then there just won't be enough places to R2P to justify a permanent membership in the UN security council, I think it will have to be found through different means... and ones that don't reek of colonialistic intent either"

So there is going to be very little oppourtunities to get involved in situations like this... and typically the UN has not gotten involved in civil wars either until they are sure war crimes are being committed.


So lets look at it:

First you need a dictator and they seem to be a dying breed.

Second there has to be no hint of colonial intervention to keep it smelling like roses.

Third you need both China and Russia to not veto it.

Fourth you don't want either of them actually doing the force projection as they will steal your thunder.

Fifth you need no other nation to step up to the plate and outperform either the UK or France.

Sixth, Fusion isn't invented because no one is going to intervene for heavy water.

Yeah, I can see this is a game winning plan with no chances that anything can go wrong... good luck for the next fifty years on that one.

you have just argued for doing without the UNSC altogether, or, having a UNSC of just the US.

your argument doesn't fly.