Civil War in Libya

[Seamus Fermanagh]

All sorts of numbers are flying around. None of them are trustworthy.

It'll take at the very least half a year before we have reliable numbers. Probably more.

Maybe a reasonable estimate. We will never have reliable numbers.

[Adrian II]

Where are you getting the 50,000 number? The last I read it was at was about 13,000 or so.

It's from this Reuters report.

AII

[Banquo's Ghost]

One wonders how many people have been killed or maimed by the showers of spent bullets raining from the sky? What goes up must come down and these people have such a penchant for firing indiscriminately into the air in built up areas.

[Husar]

Nah, they're really responsible and aim very well:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=0bc_1314769189

[Viking]

What about it. Hope they make the best out of these 2 or 3 months of peace

What about it? Europe was a country full of tribes and militaries, who had been figthing eacher over and over as long as there is recorded history. The previous major war was less than three decades ago. One of the bigger tribes, the Soviet Union, claimed large swathes of land after the war, such as much of the area belonging to the German tribe. All in all, not good odds for the future. What do you think of this 'liberation'? Would you favour a strongman such as Hitler controlling all of Europe so that peace could be more likely?

[Fragony]

What about it? Europe was a country full of tribes and militaries, who had been figthing eacher over and over as long as there is recorded history. The previous major war was less than three decades ago. One of the bigger tribes, the Soviet Union, claimed large swathes of land after the war, such as much of the area belonging to the German tribe. All in all, not good odds for the future. What do you think of this 'liberation'? Would you favour a strongman such as Hitler controlling all of Europe so that peace could be more likely?

Projecting ourselves really isn't going to help, arab culture has a logic of it's own. I don't get it and neither do you

[Viking]

'Ourselves'? Are we of WWII? No, Europe, as any other place, changes with time.

The core of the question is: strong despot for calmer society with no hope for freedom vs. turbulent times in change for potential great freedom.

[Subotan]

Projecting ourselves really isn't going to help, arab culture has a logic of it's own. I don't get it and neither do you

And that logic has lead them to topple dictatorships and move nations to achieve something remarkably similar to Eurodemocracy. I dunno about you, but I think we Europeans and Arabs "get" each other more than you might think.

[Fragony]

And that logic has lead them to topple dictatorships and move nations to achieve something remarkably similar to Eurodemocracy. I dunno about you, but I think we Europeans and Arabs "get" each other more than you might think.

sure

[rory_20_uk]

'Ourselves'? Are we of WWII? No, Europe, as any other place, changes with time.

The core of the question is: strong despot for calmer society with no hope for freedom vs. turbulent times in change for potential great freedom.

A decision for the locals to make, not us.

[Viking]

And that's what happened, as well as it could. Do not equate fire power with will of the people; there would be no dictatorships then.

[Fragony]

And that's what happened, as well as it could. Do not equate fire power with will of the people; there would be no dictatorships then.

So far there was a common enemy, when he's gone the infighting will begin. The rebels are a mix of normally hostile tribes, reformers and jihadi's, see any potential difficulties?

[Montmorency]

Comment from this Economist article. It's kind of lulzy.

dare to remind to the Readers that ITALY deployed the FOURTH air force with 14 warplanes,and dropped more than 500 laser guided bombs and air to ground missiles.The ECONOMIST,cosistent with his antitalian tradition,quotes us after Norway,that left the operation,Denmark and other superpowers.An article aimed to convince the Readers that the Mediterranean is strongly in the hands of the francobritish band.Pity that without our bases,the operation in Libya would have never begun.Add this to our involvment,and you understand why ALL THE OIL CONTRACTS WE HAD,WORTH DOZEN OF BILLUIONS,WILL BE CONFIRMED BY THE CNT.Useless that France spreads rumours of "35%".It's propaganda,the old false information made in Paris.The conclusion is simple:no NATO without Italy,in a crucial place like the Meditarranean.And no defense for israel,no struggle AGAINST the terrorism,no nothing.

[Furunculus]

the conclusion i have long agreed with:

"a higher value on being able to conduct operations in the “near abroad” than on playing a junior role in conflicts far from home"

the lesson from Libya: sovereign and strategic power projection!

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

http://storyful.com/stories/1000007357

New Libyasn Football kit, laugh all you want but it's the little things like this that are important - as well as the goalkeeper swapping out his AA Gun for his mits again.

[Fragony]

the conclusion i have long agreed with:

"a higher value on being able to conduct operations in the ?near abroad? than on playing a junior role in conflicts far from home"

the lesson from Libya: sovereign and strategic power projection!

There are lessons to be learned from Libya, you just don't get them yet. Want to make a bet that in 4 years a million have died. I think in two myself, place your bets it's all so marvellous

[econ21]

Want to make a bet that in 4 years a million have died.

I'll take that bet. Libya's total population is 6 million. You are saying getting rid of Gadhafi will be as disasterous for Libya as WW2 was for Poland.

[Fragony]

I'll take that bet. Libya's total population is 6 million. You are saying getting rid of Gadhafi will be as disasterous for Libya as WW2 was for Poland.

Safe bet, the black immigrants are already dead, killed, or starved in the Sahara, or murdered in the hospitals before they could flee. About 2 million people support Ghaddafi, who got the silly idea that it's better to be payed in gold. One million dead in 4 years, your on

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Safe bet, the black immigrants are already dead, killed, or starved in the Sahara, or murdered in the hospitals before they could flee. About 2 million people support Ghaddafi, who got the silly idea that it's better to be payed in gold. One million dead in 4 years, your on

Not all "blacks", yes there have been some reprisals, but have you forgotten Feburary when Sub-Saharans were roaming the streets of Trippoli killing men women and children.

Exactly how many "sympathisers" did you hang when the mointy came into Holland? How many of those girls has their heads shaved, were beaten and then cast out of their towns and villages?

Libya's population is already tired of war, and while I don't expect the transition to be entirely smooth the NTC is not the old regime, it was built from scratch unlike Egypt and Tunisia's interim governments, it has adopted the pre-Gaddafi flag because the people see it as a sign of their freedom. Even if it is a mix of exiles and technocrats with a sprinkling of Islamists, the general population is not going to stand for another dictatorship.

The course of events has overrun any cabal that might have existed and the men provisionally in charge are clever enough, if not wise enough, to know that they can have short political carears followed either by firing squad or by statues and schools named after them, but they can't have long-term power.

[Subotan]

Comment from this Economist article. It's kind of lulzy.

I love the Economist, but the comments sections are always so universally dire. It's so mystifying, as I would have thought that the Economist would have a rather brainy and rational readership.

[Montmorency]

The comments are actually often rather good, once youve filtered out the angry patriots.

[Viking]

So far there was a common enemy, when he's gone the infighting will begin. The rebels are a mix of normally hostile tribes, reformers and jihadi's, see any potential difficulties?

The tribes are mainly a brilliant PR idea* by the Gaddafi regime. It doesn't look like a Libyan tribe's name is worth more allegiance than a last name here in the West.

If they are all in the political game from the start, then all the more likely that they'll turn into political animals rather than fighting beasts. After long war of months, they'll have little appetite for more fighting. It is thought that the Algerian civil war from the 90s has deterred any major unrest in Algeria this year through a similar mechanism - why take the risk.



*This is probably a common strategy among dictatorships. I mean, I guess they know that many news media, even Western ones, will repeat the statements of their spokesmen without any/minimal judgement of their truthfulness, even if the statements are blatantly false. Many people who are viewing these news will not get more input from other sources, as they do not care enough about the topic. That way, repeating lies/half-truths over and over could end up swaying a great number of people over the world with statements such as 'NATO airstrikes kill thousands of civilians in Libya', when the real total figure may be well below what the Gaddafi regime would kill on an average day. So crazy lies might be worth it in the end for such regimes - many will believe at least parts of them.

[Fragony]

'The tribes are mainly a brilliant PR idea* by the Gaddafi regime'

You are so wrong

'Exactly how many "sympathisers" did you hang when the mointy came into Holland? How many of those girls has their heads shaved, were beaten and then cast out of their towns and villages?'

It's much worse actually, somtehing we love to forget. The camps didn't close after the liberation, former NSB members were put there and starved to death. Not very smart to bring even after 50 years

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

'The tribes are mainly a brilliant PR idea* by the Gaddafi regime'

You are so wrong

'Exactly how many "sympathisers" did you hang when the mointy came into Holland? How many of those girls has their heads shaved, were beaten and then cast out of their towns and villages?'

It's much worse actually, somtehing we love to forget. The camps didn't close after the liberation, former NSB members were put there and starved to death. Not very smart to bring even after 50 years

So, according to you, the Dutch were killing people in NAZI death camps up to 1960?

[Viking]

You are so wrong

You are totally wrong.

[Fragony]

So, according to you, the Dutch were killing people in NAZI death camps up to 1960?

Not sure how long it went on, until the fifties at least. Former resistance fighters as well if if they had communist sympathies

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Not sure how long it went on, until the fifties at least. Former resistance fighters as well if if they had communist sympathies

I don't really believe you.

Adrian?

This sounds like your wierd idea that the Dutch Royal Family was put on the throne by Napoleon.

[Tellos Athenaios]

I don't really believe you.

Adrian?

This sounds like your wierd idea that the Dutch Royal Family was put on the throne by Napoleon.

Two things:

(1) There were no nazi or other death camps in the Neds, never have been.
(2) There were however, “labour” camps built by the Nazis. Those were repurposed in the late 40's/50's for prison (for NSB & sometimes their family) as well as for other use, mainly for housing refugees. It was probably a combination of convenience and necessity: it was a time when the Dutch government actively urged people to head for Australia, New Zealand, Canada, USA...

Starving to death is somewhat relative, but the NSB types were not treated with a great deal of respect for their human needs in any case. Their fate (beyond their “punishment”) really was not a concern for the Dutch at the time.

[Fragony]

There is nothing relative about starving. Aftermath was ugly everywhere PVC

[Tellos Athenaios]

There is nothing relative about starving. Aftermath was ugly everywhere PVC

What I meant was: when it came to food redistribution NSB types were last on the list. However, purposefully/deliberately letting them starve to death outright is different.