How is your first campaign going?

[Leptomeninges]

My second stab at a Shimazu campaign is going well.

I have just taken complete control of Kyushu, it was made easy by the sargara actually going to war with another clan nearby! I now have 3 of the main trade routes with a healthy stack of trade ships on each so money is flowing in. The trouble is diplomacy is awkward for me with so many clans being indifferent and also refusing to accept trade agreements. Still have more to learn but I seem to be in a strong position to expand.

So now I am pondering my next step.

I may post an AAR when I'm done with my current long/hard Shimazu campaign. I've done several "sandbox-style" reloads trying different things and have a much better sense of what works as Shimazu (for me anyway).

As it relates to getting people to accept trade agreements, I'd recommend paying them. Sometimes their attitudes towards you will mellow over time and it's possible that they'll ask you for trade agreements that they won't accept now, but bear in mind that there is also an economic benefit also to having longer-term trade agreements as well as the opportunity cost of unused trade capacity. They may also get their own trade capacity locked up by smaller players if you miss your window. I'd just pay up front to get agreements with the bigger players.

As it relates to the question of "where to?" I'll offer the following two cents:

First of all, I'd try to maintain a land bridge to your expansion next expansion. Or minimally, you want a short naval hop. I think the realm divide is difficult with remote empire outposts.

The most important province types on the mainland are crafts and smithing. If you look at a resource map, you'll see that the developers likely agree. In distinction to other resource types which are scattered almost haphazardly around the map, crafts and smithing in particular have an almost geometric symmetry to their placement. There are two key reasons why these provinces are so important. One is that ultimately, these are the troop production provinces. And troops obviously win wars. The other reason is that these provinces will end up as defensive strong points by virtue of development. There is really no reason to build large cities in other provinces. You can't really build an, "economic powerhouse" city by making your castle bigger, and defensive cities built for no other purpose than to boast a large castle are typically wasted expenditures.

To sum up: you want to look at Bizen, Hoki, and Iwami (the greatest wealth capacity province in the game.) Depending on the length of the campaign you're playing you may or may not be able to get these before realm divide. In a long campaign (divide generally around 18 provinces) it's easy to get them all. In a short campaign (divide generally around 15 provinces) you'll have to develop a more creative patchwork of provinces.