Yemeni unrest

[Viking]

A 'top general' in Yemen has claimed that he now supports the 'protesting youth'. This could be a game changer, perhaps. I have no idea.

Top Yemeni general, Ali Mohsen, announces defection

Key Yemeni General Ali Mohsen, who is close to President Ali Abdullah Saleh, says he has joined the protest movement against the regime.

"We announce we support and protect the youths who are protesting at University Square in Sanaa," the armoured infantry division commander said.

[Dâriûsh]

We'll probably see an Egypt style military coup. Like Mubarak, and unlike Gadaffi, Saleh is not a likely candidate for a post-2011 uprising Middle Eastern leader. Easier to just get rid of him.

[Viking]

That is of course a possibility, though isn't this sort of a weird way to start a coup?

[Dâriûsh]

Military units loyal to el presidente has clashed with the Yemeni army.

[al Roumi]

Yemen is a different proposition to either Tunisia, Egypt or even Libya. A true revolution in governance seems unlikely so far -it looks more like the elites will swap power. If the "street" coalesces or can articulate & agree a desired outcome there may be more deeper change to the country.

[Boohugh]

Yemen is a state with a huge number of problems. There has been an on-off civil war going on in the north for some time (as in, since the 1990's), unrest in some southern areas (pre-dating the Arab Spring), a serious problem with terrorism combined with an economy entirely dependent on oil income that has been steadily decreasing in recent years because the oil is running out. The government has to deal with these problems with steadily decreasing tax revenue (something like 70% of tax income is from oil) and steadily increasing costs. There is a perverse system of importing almost all their diesel at market prices, because they don't have the refining capacity to process their own oil, and then subsidising about 20% of the cost to their own people, so they aren't even benefitting much from increased oil prices recently.

A change of elites won't solve their problems, if anything it'll only intensify them as rivalries develop and the country becomes even more fragmented. Yemen is rapidly becoming a failed state and it needs serious help if it's not to become the next Somalia - which will really throw the cat amongst the pigeons in the Gulf of Aden. If people think piracy is a problem now, just wait for a zone of instability running from Northern Kenya, through Somalia, across the Gulf of Aden across Yemen to the southern edge of Saudi Arabia to develop - then the West and its oil imports will have something to think about.